Computational Tradespace Exploration, Analysis, and Decision-Making: A Proposed Framework for Organizational Self-Assessment

The ability to assess technical feasibility, project risk, technical readiness, and realistic performance expectations in early-phase conceptual design is a challenging mission-critical task for large procurement projects. At present, there is not a well-defined framework for evaluating current practices of organizations performing computational trade studies. One such organization is the US Army Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC). When defining requirements and priorities for the next-generation autonomy-enabled ground vehicle system, GVSC is faced with the challenge of an increasingly complex programmatic tradespace due to emerging complexities of ground vehicle systems. This thesis aims to document and evaluate tradespace processes, methods, and tools within GVSC. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to investigate existing gaps, limitations, and potential growth opportunities related to tradespace activities reflecting the greater body of knowledge observed in the literature. Following this review, an interview-based study was developed through which a series of interviews with GVSC personnel was conducted and subsequently benchmarked against the baseline established in the literature. In addition to characterizing the current practices of tradespace exploration and analysis within GVSC, the analysis of the collected interview data revealed current capability gaps, areas of excellence, and potential avenues for improvement within GVSC. Through this thesis, other organizations can perform similar self-assessments to improve internal capabilities with respect to tradespace studies

Considerations for an Extended Framework for Interactive Epoch-Era Analysis

AbstractEpoch-Era Analysis (EEA) is a framework that supports narrative and computational scenario planning and analysis for both short run and long run futures. Currently EEA is being applied to frame problems faced by the DoD's Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) efforts. Because of the large amount of data that must be analyzed when extending EEA to large-scale problems, such as those posed by DoD, a “big data” problem is introduced. This motivates the need for extensions to EEA methods that overcome the computational and human cognition issues that arise as a result. The research presented here describes exploratory development of Interactive Epoch-Era Analysis (IEEA) methods, including human interface and reasoning considerations for epoch and era characterizations, as well as single and multi- epoch and era analyses. Visualization techniques and methods for mitigating computational resource restrictions that facilitate improved decision-making are also presented

Quantitative Set-Based Design for Complex System Development

This dissertation comprises a body of research facilitating decision-making and complex system development with quantitative set-based design (SBD). SBD is concurrent product development methodology, which develops and analyzes many design alternatives for longer time periods enabling design maturation and uncertainty reduction. SBD improves design space exploration, facilitating the identification of resilient and affordable systems. The literature contains numerous qualitative descriptions and quantitative methodologies describing limited aspects of the SBD process. However, there exist no methodologies enabling the quantitative management of SBD programs throughout the entire product development cycle. This research addresses this knowledge gap by developing the process framework and supporting methodologies guiding product development from initial system concepts to a final design solution. This research provides several new research contributions. First, we provide a comprehensive SBD state-of-practice assessment identifying key knowledge and methodology gaps. Second, we demonstrate the physical implementation of the integrated analytics framework in a model-based engineering environment. Third, we develop a quantitative methodology enabling program management decision making in SBD. Fourth, we describe a supporting uncertainty reduction methodology using multiobjective value of information analysis to assess design set maturity and higher-resolution model usefulness. Finally, we describe a quantitative SBD process framework enabling sequential design maturation and uncertainty reduction decisions. Using an unmanned aerial vehicle case study, we demonstrate our methodology’s ability to resolve uncertainty and converge a complex design space onto a set of resilient and affordable design solutions

System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace and Affordability (SQOTA) Project Phase 5

Motivation and Context: One of the key elements of the SERC's research strategy is transforming the practice of systems engineering and associated management practices- "SE and Management Transformation (SEMT)." The Grand Challenge goal for SEMT is to transform the DoD community 's current systems engineering and management methods, processes, and tools (MPTs) and practices away from sequential, single stovepipe system, hardware-first ,document-driven, point- solution, acquisition-oriented approaches; and toward concurrent, portfolio and enterprise-oriented, hardware-software-human engineered, model-driven, set-based, full life cycle approaches.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08-D-0171 and HQ0034-13-D-0004 (TO 0060).This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08-D-0171 and HQ0034-13-D-0004 (TO 0060)

Convergent Set-Based Design in Integrated Analysis of Alternatives: Designing Engineered Resilient Systems

This thesis presents a comprehensive package for understanding and expanding set-based design quantification through the definition and demonstration of Convergent set-based design (SBD). Convergent SBD is a technique developed for the Engineered Resilient Systems program sponsored by the Department of Defense. Convergent SBD contributes a repeatable methodology with the goal of mathematically eliminating inefficient sets. The study of Convergent SBD led to the development of dominance identification criteria equations using comparison of statistical means. The demonstration of Convergent SBD also illustrates the effect of mission resilience in the tradespace and the impact mission resilience has on preference. Finally, Convergent SBD contributes to mathematical identification of the previously heuristic based set drivers and set modifiers and discusses additional decision analyst uses for this information. Presented as a complete thesis, Convergent SBD provides a foundational mathematical technique for eliminating sets and a method for converging to an efficient, affordable solution or group of solutions

Optimizing UAS Mission Training Needs Through Tradespace Analysis

The Gray Eagle unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) training program requires the reallocation of multiple fully operational UAS from the operational environment to facilitate training. The UAS Project Management Office (PM UAS) is concerned that this practice lacks efficiency. This study sought to: (1) conduct a comprehensive analysis for resource optimization with respect to achieving essential training tasks across multiple UAS, (2) conduct comprehensive cost-benefit analysis to assess the value of allocating a full-time and Gray Eagle platforms to accomplish training versus part-task trainers, and (3) define and quantify measures of performance and effectiveness. To achieve these objectives, this study implemented a tradespace analysis methodology to produce a discrete-event simulation model and a resource optimization tool. The impacts of this project will result in substantial cost savings per fiscal year, allow the client to forecast the resource needs of the organization effectively, and allow for the proper allocation of these resources

System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace and Affordability (SQOTA) Project – Phase 4

This task was proposed and established as a result of a pair of 2012 workshops sponsored by the DoD Engineered Resilient Systems technology priority area and by the SERC. The workshops focused on how best to strengthen DoD’s capabilities in dealing with its systems’ non-functional requirements, often also called system qualities, properties, levels of service, and –ilities. The term –ilities was often used during the workshops, and became the title of the resulting SERC research task: “ilities Tradespace and Affordability Project (iTAP).” As the project progressed, the term “ilities” often became a source of confusion, as in “Do your results include considerations of safety, security, resilience, etc., which don’t have “ility” in their names?” Also, as our ontology, methods, processes, and tools became of interest across the DoD and across international and standards communities, we found that the term “System Qualities” was most often used. As a result, we are changing the name of the project to “System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace, and Affordability (SQOTA).” Some of this year’s university reports still refer to the project as “iTAP.”This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004

Tradespace and Affordability – Phase 2

MOTIVATION AND CONTEXT: One of the key elements of the SERC’s research strategy is transforming the practice of systems engineering – “SE Transformation.” The Grand Challenge goal for SE Transformation is to transform the DoD community’s current systems engineering and management methods, processes, and tools (MPTs) and practices away from sequential, single stovepipe system, hardware-first, outside-in, document-driven, point-solution, acquisition-oriented approaches; and toward concurrent, portfolio and enterprise-oriented, hardware-software-human engineered, balanced outside-in and inside-out, model-driven, set-based, full life cycle approaches.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046).This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046)

Determining Feasibility Resilience: Set Based Design Iteration Evaluation Through Permutation Stability Analysis

The goal of robust design is to select a design that will still perform satisfactorily even with unexpected variation in design parameters. A resilient design will accommodate unanticipated future system requirements. Through studying the variations of system parameters through the use of multi objective optimization, a designer hopes to locate a robustly resilient design, which performs current mission well even with varying system parameters and is able to be easily repurposed to new missions. This ability to withstand changes is critical because it is common for the product of a design to undergo changes throughout its life cycle. This subject has been an active area of research in industrial design and systems engineering but most methodologies rest upon exhaustive understanding of design, manufacturing and mission variance. The thrust of this research is to develop new methodologies for estimating robust resilience given imperfect information. In this work we will apply new methodologies for locating resilient designs within a dataset derive from a study performed by the Small Surface Combatant Task Force in order to improve upon a state of the art design process. Two new methodologies, permutation stability analysis and mutation stability analysis, are presented along with results and discussion as applied to the SSCTF dataset. It is demonstrated that these new methods improve upon the state of the art by providing insight into the robustness and resilience of selected system properties. These methodologies, although applied to the SSCTF dataset are posed more generally for wider application in system design

-ilities Tradespace and Affordability Project – Phase 3

One of the key elements of the SERC’s research strategy is transforming the practice of systems engineering and associated management practices – “SE and Management Transformation (SEMT).” The Grand Challenge goal for SEMT is to transform the DoD community’s current systems engineering and management methods, processes, and tools (MPTs) and practices away from sequential, single stovepipe system, hardware-first, document-driven, point- solution, acquisition-oriented approaches; and toward concurrent, portfolio and enterprise- oriented, hardware-software-human engineered, model-driven, set-based, full life cycle approaches.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046).This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract H98230-08- D-0171 (Task Order 0031, RT 046)