Testing self-report time-use diaries against objective instruments in real time

This study provides a new test of time-use diary methodology, comparing diaries with a pair of objective criterion measures: wearable cameras and accelerometers. A volunteer sample of respondents (n = 148) completed conventional self-report paper time-use diaries using the standard UK Harmonised European Time Use Study (HETUS) instrument. On the diary day, respondents wore a camera that continuously recorded images of their activities during waking hours (approximately 1,500–2,000 images/day) and also an accelerometer that tracked their physical activity continuously throughout the 24-hour period covered by the diary. Of the initial 148 participants recruited, 131 returned usable diary and camera records, of whom 124 also provided a usable whole-day accelerometer record. The comparison of the diary data with the camera and accelerometer records strongly supports the use of diary methodology at both the aggregate (sample) and individual levels. It provides evidence that time-use data could be used to complement physical activity questionnaires for providing population-level estimates of physical activity. It also implies new opportunities for investigating techniques for calibrating metabolic equivalent of task (MET) attributions to daily activities using large-scale, population-representative time-use diary studies

From Fault Tree to Credit Risk Assessment: A Case Study

Reliability has been largely applied to industrial systems in order to study the various possibilities of systems’ failure. The goal is to establish the chain of events leading to any system’s failure, namely the top event. Looking for the minimal paths leading to any system’s fault allows for a better control of systems’ safety. To this end, reliability is composed of a static approach (see Ngom et al. [1999] for example) as well as a dynamic approach (see Reory & Andrews [2003] for example). In this paper, we extend the framework stated by Gatfaoui (2003) allowing for the application of fault tree theory to credit risk assessment. The author explains that fault tree is one alternative approach of reliability, which matches default risk analysis in a simple framework. Our extension includes other distributions of probability to model the lifetimes of French firms while studying the related empirical default probabilities. We use mainly, but not exclusively, continuous distributions for which the exponential law used by Gatfaoui (2003) constitutes a particular case. Our results exhibit both the exponential nature of French .rms. lifetimes as well as strong convex and fast decreasing time varying failure rates. Such a feature has some non- negligible impact insofar as it characterizes corresponding credit spreads’ Term structure.credit risk, default probability, failure rate, fault tree, reliability, survival probability

From Fault Tree to Credit Risk Assessment: A Case Study

Reliability has been largely applied to industrial systems in order to study the various possibilities of systems’ failure. The goal is to establish the chain of events leading to any system’s failure, namely the top event. Looking for the minimal paths leading to any system’s fault allows for a better control of systems’ safety. To this end, reliability is composed of a static approach as well as a dynamic approach. In this paper, we extend the canonical framework allowing for the application of fault tree theory to credit risk assessment. The author explains that fault tree is one alternative approach of reliability, which matches default risk analysis in a simple framework. Our extension includes other distributions of probability to model the lifetimes of French firms while studying the related empirical default probabilities. We use mainly, but not exclusively, continuous distributions. Our results exhibit both the exponential nature of French .rms. lifetimes as well as strong convex and fast decreasing time varying failure rates. Such a feature has some non-negligible impact insofar as it characterizes corresponding credit spreads’ Term structure.Credit risk, default probability, failure rate, fault tree, reliability, survival