14,073 research outputs found

    Architecting system of systems: artificial life analysis of financial market behavior

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    This research study focuses on developing a framework that can be utilized by system architects to understand the emergent behavior of system architectures. The objective is to design a framework that is modular and flexible in providing different ways of modeling sub-systems of System of Systems. At the same time, the framework should capture the adaptive behavior of the system since evolution is one of the key characteristics of System of Systems. Another objective is to design the framework so that humans can be incorporated into the analysis. The framework should help system architects understand the behavior as well as promoters or inhibitors of change in human systems. Computational intelligence tools have been successfully used in analysis of Complex Adaptive Systems. Since a System of Systems is a collection of Complex Adaptive Systems, a framework utilizing combination of these tools can be developed. Financial markets are selected to demonstrate the various architectures developed from the analysis framework --Introduction, page 3

    From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

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    As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

    Agent-based Computational Economics: a Methodological Appraisal

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    This paper is an overview of "Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE)", an emerging approach to the study of decentralized market economies, in methodological perspective. It summarizes similarities and differences with respect to conventional economic models, outlines the unique methodological characteristics of this approach, and discusses its implications for economic methodology as a whole. While ACE rejoins the reflection on the unintended social consequences of purposeful individual action which is constitutive of economics as a discipline, the paper shows that it complements state-of the-art research in experimental and behavioral economics. In particular, the methods and techniques of ACE have reinforced the laboratory finding that fundamental economic results rely less on rational choice theory than is usually assumed, and have provided insight into the importance of market structures and rules in addition to individual choice. In addition, ACE has enlarged the range of inter-individual interactions that are of interest for economists. In this perspective, ACE provides the economist‘s toolbox with valuable supplements to existing economic techniques rather than proposing a radical alternative. Despite some open methodological questions, it has potential for better integration into economics in the future.Agent-based Computational Economics, Economic Methodology, Experimental Economics.

    The Development of Social Simulation as Reflected in the First Ten Years of JASSS: a Citation and Co-Citation Analysis

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    Social simulation is often described as a multidisciplinary and fast-moving field. This can make it difficult to obtain an overview of the field both for contributing researchers and for outsiders who are interested in social simulation. The Journal for Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) completing its tenth year provides a good opportunity to take stock of what happened over this time period. First, we use citation analysis to identify the most influential publications and to verify characteristics of social simulation such as its multidisciplinary nature. Then, we perform a co-citation analysis to visualize the intellectual structure of social simulation and its development. Overall, the analysis shows social simulation both in its early stage and during its first steps towards becoming a more differentiated discipline.Citation Analysis, Co-Citation Analysis, Lines of Research, Multidisciplinary, Science Studies, Social Simulation

    Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

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    The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

    The Impact of Agent-Based Models in the Social Sciences after 15 Years of Incursions

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    This paper provides an overview on the impact of agent-based models in the social sciences. It focuses on the reasons why agent-based models are seen as important innovations in the recent decades. It is aimed to evaluate the impact of this innovation on various disciplines, such as economics, sociology, anthropology, and behavioural sciences. It discusses the advances it contributed to achieve and illustrates some comparatively new fields to which it gave rise. Finally, it emphasizes some research issues that need to be addressed in the future

    Horizontal and Vertical Multiple Implementations in a Model of Industrial Districts

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    In this paper we discuss strategies concerning the implementation of an agent-based simulation of complex phenomena. The model we consider accounts for population decomposition and interaction in industrial districts. The approach we follow is twofold: on one hand, we implement progressively more complex models using different approaches (vertical multiple implementations); on the other hand, we replicate the agent-based simulation with different implementations using jESOF, JAS and plain C++ (horizontal multiple implementations). By using both different implementation approaches and a multiple implementation strategy, we highlight the benefits that arise when the same model is implemented on radically different simulation environments, comparing the advantages of multiple modeling implementations. Our findings provide some important suggestions in terms of model validation, showing how models of complex systems tend to be extremely sensitive to implementation details. Finally we point out how statistical techniques may be necessary when comparing different platform implementations of a single model.Replication of Models; Model Validation; Agent-Based Simulation
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