Discovery Is Never By Chance: Designing for (Un)Serendipity

Serendipity has a long tradition in the history of science as having played a key role in many significant discoveries. Computer scientists, valuing the role of serendipity in discovery, have attempted to design systems that encourage serendipity. However, that research has focused primarily on only one aspect of serendipity: that of chance encounters. In reality, for serendipity to be valuable chance encounters must be synthesized into insight. In this paper we show, through a formal consideration of serendipity and analysis of how various systems have seized on attributes of interpreting serendipity, that there is a richer space for design to support serendipitous creativity, innovation and discovery than has been tapped to date. We discuss how ideas might be encoded to be shared or discovered by ‘association-hunting’ agents. We propose considering not only the inventor’s role in perceiving serendipity, but also how that inventor’s perception may be enhanced to increase the opportunity for serendipity. We explore the role of environment and how we can better enable serendipitous discoveries to find a home more readily and immediately

An anomaly detector with immediate feedback to hunt for planets of Earth mass and below by microlensing

(abridged) The discovery of OGLE 2005-BLG-390Lb, the first cool rocky/icy exoplanet, impressively demonstrated the sensitivity of the microlensing technique to extra-solar planets below 10 M_earth. A planet of 1 M_earth in the same spot would have provided a detectable deviation with an amplitude of ~ 3 % and a duration of ~ 12 h. An early detection of a deviation could trigger higher-cadence sampling which would have allowed the discovery of an Earth-mass planet in this case. Here, we describe the implementation of an automated anomaly detector, embedded into the eSTAR system, that profits from immediate feedback provided by the robotic telescopes that form the RoboNet-1.0 network. It went into operation for the 2007 microlensing observing season. As part of our discussion about an optimal strategy for planet detection, we shed some new light on whether concentrating on highly-magnified events is promising and planets in the 'resonant' angular separation equal to the angular Einstein radius are revealed most easily. Given that sub-Neptune mass planets can be considered being common around the host stars probed by microlensing (preferentially M- and K-dwarfs), the higher number of events that can be monitored with a network of 2m telescopes and the increased detection efficiency for planets below 5 M_earth arising from an optimized strategy gives a common effort of current microlensing campaigns a fair chance to detect an Earth-mass planet (from the ground) ahead of the COROT or Kepler missions. The detection limit of gravitational microlensing extends even below 0.1 M_earth, but such planets are not very likely to be detected from current campaigns. However, these will be within the reach of high-cadence monitoring with a network of wide-field telescopes or a space-based telescope.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures and 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRA

DNA expression microarrays may be the wrong tool to identify biological pathways

DNA microarray expression signatures are expected to provide new insights into patho- physiological pathways. Numerous variant statistical methods have been described for each step of the signal analysis. We employed five similar statistical tests on the same data set at the level of gene selection. Inter-test agreement for the identification of biological pathways in BioCarta, KEGG and Reactome was calculated using Cohen’s k- score. The identification of specific biological pathways showed only moderate agreement (0.30 < k < 0.79) between the analysis methods used. Pathways identified by microarrays must be treated cautiously as they vary according to the statistical method used