Will Social Security and Medicare Remain Viable as the U.S. Population is Aging? An Update

Yes, subject to concerns about Medicare inefficiencies and potentially self-confirming skepticism. The U.S. social security system-broadly defined to include Medicare-faces significant financial problems as the result of an aging population. But demographic change is also likely to raise savings, increase wages, and reduce interest rates, and up to a point, a growing GDP-share of medical spending is an efficient response to an aging population. Thus viability is more a political economy than an economic feasibility issue. To examine the political viability of social security, I focus on intertemporal cost-benefit tradeoffs in a median voter setting. For a variety of assumptions and policy alternatives, I find that social security should retain majority support.

Diverse protection systems for improving security: a study with AntiVirus engines

Diverse “barriers” or “protection systems” are very common in many industries, especially in safety-critical ones where the designers must use “defense in depth” techniques to prevent safety failures. Similar techniques are also commonly prescribed for security systems: using multiple, diverse detection systems to prevent security breaches. However empirical evidence of the effectiveness of diversity is rare. We present results of an empirical study which uses a large-scale dataset to assess the benefits of diversity with an important category of security systems: AntiVirus products. The analysis was based on 1599 malware samples collected from a distributed honeypot deployment over a period of 178 days. The malware samples were sent to the signature engines of 32 different AntiVirus products hosted by the VirusTotal service. We also present an exploratory model which shows that the number of diverse protection layers that are needed to achieve “perfect” detection with our dataset follows an exponential power-law distribution. If this distribution is shown to be generic with other datasets, it would be a cost-effective means for predicting the probability of perfect detection for systems that use a large number of barriers based on measurements made with systems that are composed of fewer (say 2, 3) barriers