34,156 research outputs found

    Prediction with expert advice for the Brier game

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    We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical performance guarantee turns out to be rather tight on these data sets, especially in the case of the more extensive tennis data.Comment: 34 pages, 22 figures, 2 tables. The conference version (8 pages) is published in the ICML 2008 Proceeding

    Tight Lower Bounds for Multiplicative Weights Algorithmic Families

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    We study the fundamental problem of prediction with expert advice and develop regret lower bounds for a large family of algorithms for this problem. We develop simple adversarial primitives, that lend themselves to various combinations leading to sharp lower bounds for many algorithmic families. We use these primitives to show that the classic Multiplicative Weights Algorithm (MWA) has a regret of Tlnk2\sqrt{\frac{T \ln k}{2}}, there by completely closing the gap between upper and lower bounds. We further show a regret lower bound of 23Tlnk2\frac{2}{3}\sqrt{\frac{T\ln k}{2}} for a much more general family of algorithms than MWA, where the learning rate can be arbitrarily varied over time, or even picked from arbitrary distributions over time. We also use our primitives to construct adversaries in the geometric horizon setting for MWA to precisely characterize the regret at 0.391δ\frac{0.391}{\sqrt{\delta}} for the case of 22 experts and a lower bound of 12lnk2δ\frac{1}{2}\sqrt{\frac{\ln k}{2\delta}} for the case of arbitrary number of experts kk

    Universal Learning of Repeated Matrix Games

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    We study and compare the learning dynamics of two universal learning algorithms, one based on Bayesian learning and the other on prediction with expert advice. Both approaches have strong asymptotic performance guarantees. When confronted with the task of finding good long-term strategies in repeated 2x2 matrix games, they behave quite differently.Comment: 16 LaTeX pages, 8 eps figure

    Lipschitz Adaptivity with Multiple Learning Rates in Online Learning

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    We aim to design adaptive online learning algorithms that take advantage of any special structure that might be present in the learning task at hand, with as little manual tuning by the user as possible. A fundamental obstacle that comes up in the design of such adaptive algorithms is to calibrate a so-called step-size or learning rate hyperparameter depending on variance, gradient norms, etc. A recent technique promises to overcome this difficulty by maintaining multiple learning rates in parallel. This technique has been applied in the MetaGrad algorithm for online convex optimization and the Squint algorithm for prediction with expert advice. However, in both cases the user still has to provide in advance a Lipschitz hyperparameter that bounds the norm of the gradients. Although this hyperparameter is typically not available in advance, tuning it correctly is crucial: if it is set too small, the methods may fail completely; but if it is taken too large, performance deteriorates significantly. In the present work we remove this Lipschitz hyperparameter by designing new versions of MetaGrad and Squint that adapt to its optimal value automatically. We achieve this by dynamically updating the set of active learning rates. For MetaGrad, we further improve the computational efficiency of handling constraints on the domain of prediction, and we remove the need to specify the number of rounds in advance.Comment: 22 pages. To appear in COLT 201
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