34,156 research outputs found
Prediction with expert advice for the Brier game
We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal
learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction
algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The
theoretical performance guarantee turns out to be rather tight on these data
sets, especially in the case of the more extensive tennis data.Comment: 34 pages, 22 figures, 2 tables. The conference version (8 pages) is
published in the ICML 2008 Proceeding
Tight Lower Bounds for Multiplicative Weights Algorithmic Families
We study the fundamental problem of prediction with expert advice and develop
regret lower bounds for a large family of algorithms for this problem. We
develop simple adversarial primitives, that lend themselves to various
combinations leading to sharp lower bounds for many algorithmic families. We
use these primitives to show that the classic Multiplicative Weights Algorithm
(MWA) has a regret of , there by completely closing
the gap between upper and lower bounds. We further show a regret lower bound of
for a much more general family of
algorithms than MWA, where the learning rate can be arbitrarily varied over
time, or even picked from arbitrary distributions over time. We also use our
primitives to construct adversaries in the geometric horizon setting for MWA to
precisely characterize the regret at for the case
of experts and a lower bound of
for the case of arbitrary number of experts
Universal Learning of Repeated Matrix Games
We study and compare the learning dynamics of two universal learning
algorithms, one based on Bayesian learning and the other on prediction with
expert advice. Both approaches have strong asymptotic performance guarantees.
When confronted with the task of finding good long-term strategies in repeated
2x2 matrix games, they behave quite differently.Comment: 16 LaTeX pages, 8 eps figure
Lipschitz Adaptivity with Multiple Learning Rates in Online Learning
We aim to design adaptive online learning algorithms that take advantage of
any special structure that might be present in the learning task at hand, with
as little manual tuning by the user as possible. A fundamental obstacle that
comes up in the design of such adaptive algorithms is to calibrate a so-called
step-size or learning rate hyperparameter depending on variance, gradient
norms, etc. A recent technique promises to overcome this difficulty by
maintaining multiple learning rates in parallel. This technique has been
applied in the MetaGrad algorithm for online convex optimization and the Squint
algorithm for prediction with expert advice. However, in both cases the user
still has to provide in advance a Lipschitz hyperparameter that bounds the norm
of the gradients. Although this hyperparameter is typically not available in
advance, tuning it correctly is crucial: if it is set too small, the methods
may fail completely; but if it is taken too large, performance deteriorates
significantly. In the present work we remove this Lipschitz hyperparameter by
designing new versions of MetaGrad and Squint that adapt to its optimal value
automatically. We achieve this by dynamically updating the set of active
learning rates. For MetaGrad, we further improve the computational efficiency
of handling constraints on the domain of prediction, and we remove the need to
specify the number of rounds in advance.Comment: 22 pages. To appear in COLT 201
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