The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

HIV/AIDS, Security and Conflict: New Realities, New Responses

Ten years after the HIV/AIDS epidemic itself was identified as a threat to international peace and security, findings from the three-year AIDS, Security and Conflict Initiative (ASCI)(1) present evidence of the mutually reinforcing dynamics linking HIV/AIDS, conflict and security

Māori women and intimate partner violence: Some sociocultural influences

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has recently been acknowledged as a worldwide phenomenon, with approximately one in four intimate relationships containing some form of violence. This study explores the interaction between relationship dynamics, IPV and whānau and community influences. We completed narrative interviews with two Māori women in December 2010. Our findings confirm the results of earlier studies which have found that childhood experiences of violence, actual or witnessed, have a powerful effect that reverberate within adult lives and into the formation of intimate relationships. Our interviews show that Māori whānau and women are textured by the same patriarchal expectations that privilege men in the Pākehā world. We also found that seeking help from whānau to escape a violent relationship may not be the most welcomed course of action. We conclude with a discussion of future research directions

Climate change and forced migration: Observations, projections and implications

human development, climate change

What Can Faith-Based Forms of Violent Conflict Prevention Teach Us About Liberal Peace?

Faith-based actors are often recognised as contributors to both conflict and peace. However, their work to prevent violent conflict, rather than bring an end to or recover from it, is largely unexplored. This is despite the growth of conflict prevention as a global social norm and field of practice. Based on collaborative research with faith groups and organisations in Nigeria, the Solomon Islands and Zanzibar (Tanzania), this paper examines faith-based forms of violent conflict prevention. It argues that faith-based approaches exist on a spectrum, from instinctive and ad hoc initiatives run by individuals and local places of worship to large-scale, systematised interventions led by global faith-based development organisations. Yet, while faith-based approaches to violent conflict prevention vary in form and function, they are consistent and distinctive in their emphasis on building resilient relationships at the local level, modelling forms of prevention embedded within local culture and that recognise the emotional and spiritual dimensions of transformative change. Faith-based approaches offer insights valuable to the wider conflict prevention field, which is increasingly critiqued for its liberal underpinnings and emphasis on technical and technological solutionism. Lessons emerge for others implementing prevention programmes, who could adapt elements of the unhurried, values-led, relationally sensitive approach demonstrated by some faith-based actors, albeit within their own structural limitations. Policymakers should support such adaptations and expand their view of prevention to explicitly include faith-based forms of activity, as to do otherwise risks missing opportunities and reproducing existing failures

IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON NIGERIA’S EVOLVING DEMOCRACY

There is now a widespread belief underpinned by growing scientific consensus that one of the biggest challenges facing humankind today is the issue of global warming caused by climate change. Climate change is simply any change in climate over time caused by natural variability or as a result of direct or indirect anthropogenic activity. This study has adopted sociological perspectives bordering on politi- cal economy, human ecology and environmental impact approaches to explain how human factors have been chiefly responsible for climate change which has altered the composition of the global at- mosphere leading to negative environmental and social consequences. In Nigeria, environmental deg- radation, ecological crisis, waste management problems, flooding, deforestation, spread of gully and erosion, reduction of food production, local health problems like asthma, cholera, cancer, chronic bron- chitis, blood disorders, and other diseases, are highlights of climate change in the country. Even then, the adverse consequences of accentuated climate instability are predicted to increase. Conse- quently, the question of whether democracy matters for climate change or whether climate change matters for democratic sustainability in Nigeria is the focus of this paper. The study concludes that without addressing the negative impacts of climate change in Nigeria, the democratic stability in the country may be threatened

Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition.

The 2015 edition of the Global Risks report completes a decade of highlighting the most significant long-term risks worldwide, drawing on the perspectives of experts and global decision-makers. Over that time, analysis has moved from risk identification to thinking through risk interconnections and the potentially cascading effects that result. Taking this effort one step further, this year's report underscores potential causes as well as solutions to global risks. Not only do we set out a view on 28 global risks in the report's traditional categories (economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological) but also we consider the drivers of those risks in the form of 13 trends. In addition, we have selected initiatives for addressing significant challenges, which we hope will inspire collaboration among business, government and civil society communitie