Leverage Constraints and Real Interest Rates

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: ISOHAETAELAE, J. ...et al., 2015. Leverage constraints and real interest rates. The Manchester School, 83(S2), pp. 83-109., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12111. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-ArchivingThis paper investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of consumption and real interest rates when there are constraints on debt finance, used both for insurance against income shocks and transferability of resources over time. We amend a standard continuous-time deterministic model, with patient and impatient household sectors, introducing sector level income shocks. Shocks that push the impatient sector towards its leverage limit increase precautionary saving and result in a substantial but transient decline of the real interest rate relative to the deterministic benchmark. We discuss the resulting dynamics of consumption, leverage and interest rates, and implications for macroeconomic modelling and policy

A Process Modelling Framework Based on Point Interval Temporal Logic with an Application to Modelling Patient Flows

This thesis considers an application of a temporal theory to describe and model the patient journey in the hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department. The aim is to introduce a generic but dynamic method applied to any setting, including healthcare. Constructing a consistent process model can be instrumental in streamlining healthcare issues. Current process modelling techniques used in healthcare such as flowcharts, unified modelling language activity diagram (UML AD), and business process modelling notation (BPMN) are intuitive and imprecise. They cannot fully capture the complexities of the types of activities and the full extent of temporal constraints to an extent where one could reason about the flows. Formal approaches such as Petri have also been reviewed to investigate their applicability to the healthcare domain to model processes. Additionally, to schedule patient flows, current modelling standards do not offer any formal mechanism, so healthcare relies on critical path method (CPM) and program evaluation review technique (PERT), that also have limitations, i.e. finish-start barrier. It is imperative to specify the temporal constraints between the start and/or end of a process, e.g., the beginning of a process A precedes the start (or end) of a process B. However, these approaches failed to provide us with a mechanism for handling these temporal situations. If provided, a formal representation can assist in effective knowledge representation and quality enhancement concerning a process. Also, it would help in uncovering complexities of a system and assist in modelling it in a consistent way which is not possible with the existing modelling techniques. The above issues are addressed in this thesis by proposing a framework that would provide a knowledge base to model patient flows for accurate representation based on point interval temporal logic (PITL) that treats point and interval as primitives. These objects would constitute the knowledge base for the formal description of a system. With the aid of the inference mechanism of the temporal theory presented here, exhaustive temporal constraints derived from the proposed axiomatic system’ components serves as a knowledge base. The proposed methodological framework would adopt a model-theoretic approach in which a theory is developed and considered as a model while the corresponding instance is considered as its application. Using this approach would assist in identifying core components of the system and their precise operation representing a real-life domain deemed suitable to the process modelling issues specified in this thesis. Thus, I have evaluated the modelling standards for their most-used terminologies and constructs to identify their key components. It will also assist in the generalisation of the critical terms (of process modelling standards) based on their ontology. A set of generalised terms proposed would serve as an enumeration of the theory and subsume the core modelling elements of the process modelling standards. The catalogue presents a knowledge base for the business and healthcare domains, and its components are formally defined (semantics). Furthermore, a resolution theorem-proof is used to show the structural features of the theory (model) to establish it is sound and complete. After establishing that the theory is sound and complete, the next step is to provide the instantiation of the theory. This is achieved by mapping the core components of the theory to their corresponding instances. Additionally, a formal graphical tool termed as point graph (PG) is used to visualise the cases of the proposed axiomatic system. PG facilitates in modelling, and scheduling patient flows and enables analysing existing models for possible inaccuracies and inconsistencies supported by a reasoning mechanism based on PITL. Following that, a transformation is developed to map the core modelling components of the standards into the extended PG (PG*) based on the semantics presented by the axiomatic system. A real-life case (from the King’s College hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department’s trauma patient pathway) is considered to validate the framework. It is divided into three patient flows to depict the journey of a patient with significant trauma, arriving at A&E, undergoing a procedure and subsequently discharged. Their staff relied upon the UML-AD and BPMN to model the patient flows. An evaluation of their representation is presented to show the shortfalls of the modelling standards to model patient flows. The last step is to model these patient flows using the developed approach, which is supported by enhanced reasoning and scheduling

Certainty Closure: Reliable Constraint Reasoning with Incomplete or Erroneous Data

Constraint Programming (CP) has proved an effective paradigm to model and solve difficult combinatorial satisfaction and optimisation problems from disparate domains. Many such problems arising from the commercial world are permeated by data uncertainty. Existing CP approaches that accommodate uncertainty are less suited to uncertainty arising due to incomplete and erroneous data, because they do not build reliable models and solutions guaranteed to address the user's genuine problem as she perceives it. Other fields such as reliable computation offer combinations of models and associated methods to handle these types of uncertain data, but lack an expressive framework characterising the resolution methodology independently of the model. We present a unifying framework that extends the CP formalism in both model and solutions, to tackle ill-defined combinatorial problems with incomplete or erroneous data. The certainty closure framework brings together modelling and solving methodologies from different fields into the CP paradigm to provide reliable and efficient approches for uncertain constraint problems. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework on a case study in network diagnosis. We define resolution forms that give generic templates, and their associated operational semantics, to derive practical solution methods for reliable solutions.Comment: Revised versio

Towards homeostatic architecture: simulation of the generative process of a termite mound construction

This report sets out to the theme of the generation of a ‘living’, homeostatic and self-organizing architectural structure. The main research question this project addresses is what innovative techniques of design, construction and materials could prospectively be developed and eventually applied to create and sustain human-made buildings which are mostly adaptive, self-controlled and self-functioning, without option to a vast supply of materials and peripheral services. The hypothesis is that through the implementation of the biological building behaviour of termites, in terms of collective construction mechanisms that are based on environmental stimuli, we could achieve a simulation of the generative process of their adaptive structures, capable to inform in many ways human construction. The essay explicates the development of the 3-dimensional, agent-based simulation of the termite collective construction and analyzes the results, which involve besides physical modelling of the evolved structures. It finally elucidates the potential of this emerging and adaptive architectural performance to be translated to human practice and thus enlighten new ecological engineering and design methodologies

Human motion modeling and simulation by anatomical approach

To instantly generate desired infinite realistic human motion is still a great challenge in virtual human simulation. In this paper, the novel emotion effected motion classification and anatomical motion classification are presented, as well as motion capture and parameterization methods. The framework for a novel anatomical approach to model human motion in a HTR (Hierarchical Translations and Rotations) file format is also described. This novel anatomical approach in human motion modelling has the potential to generate desired infinite human motion from a compact motion database. An architecture for the real-time generation of new motions is also propose

Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville-Thermalito complex

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville-Thermalito Complex (OTC) - a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation-storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California

The evolution of auditory contrast

This paper reconciles the standpoint that language users do not aim at improving their sound systems with the observation that languages seem to improve their sound systems. Computer simulations of inventories of sibilants show that Optimality-Theoretic learners who optimize their perception grammars automatically introduce a so-called prototype effect, i.e. the phenomenon that the learner’s preferred auditory realization of a certain phonological category is more peripheral than the average auditory realization of this category in her language environment. In production, however, this prototype effect is counteracted by an articulatory effect that limits the auditory form to something that is not too difficult to pronounce. If the prototype effect and the articulatory effect are of a different size, the learner must end up with an auditorily different sound system from that of her language environment. The computer simulations show that, independently of the initial auditory sound system, a stable equilibrium is reached within a small number of generations. In this stable state, the dispersion of the sibilants of the language strikes an optimal balance between articulatory ease and auditory contrast. The important point is that this is derived within a model without any goal-oriented elements such as dispersion constraints

Progress in AI Planning Research and Applications

Planning has made significant progress since its inception in the 1970s, in terms both of the efficiency and sophistication of its algorithms and representations and its potential for application to real problems. In this paper we sketch the foundations of planning as a sub-field of Artificial Intelligence and the history of its development over the past three decades. Then some of the recent achievements within the field are discussed and provided some experimental data demonstrating the progress that has been made in the application of general planners to realistic and complex problems. The paper concludes by identifying some of the open issues that remain as important challenges for future research in planning