Data Driven Device Failure Prediction

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring those systems do not fail also becomes more important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day to day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is still written by humans and as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labeled training data to train these models is not trivial. This work presents new simulated fault loads with an automated framework to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server in an effort to increase up-time and improve mission effectiveness. These new fault loads were successful in creating realistic failure conditions that are accurately identified by statistical learning models

Online disturbance prediction for enhanced availability in smart grids

A gradual move in the electric power industry towards Smart Grids brings new challenges to the system's efficiency and dependability. With a growing complexity and massive introduction of renewable generation, particularly at the distribution level, the number of faults and, consequently, disturbances (errors and failures) is expected to increase significantly. This threatens to compromise grid's availability as traditional, reactive management approaches may soon become insufficient. On the other hand, with grids' digitalization, real-time status data are becoming available. These data may be used to develop advanced management and control methods for a sustainable, more efficient and more dependable grid. A proactive management approach, based on the use of real-time data for predicting near-future disturbances and acting in their anticipation, has already been identified by the Smart Grid community as one of the main pillars of dependability of the future grid. The work presented in this dissertation focuses on predicting disturbances in Active Distributions Networks (ADNs) that are a part of the Smart Grid that evolves the most. These are distribution networks with high share of (renewable) distributed generation and with systems in place for real-time monitoring and control. Our main goal is to develop a methodology for proactive network management, in a sense of proactive mitigation of disturbances, and to design and implement a method for their prediction. We focus on predicting voltage sags as they are identified as one of the most frequent and severe disturbances in distribution networks. We address Smart Grid dependability in a holistic manner by considering its cyber and physical aspects. As a result, we identify Smart Grid dependability properties and develop a taxonomy of faults that contribute to better understanding of the overall dependability of the future grid. As the process of grid's digitization is still ongoing there is a general problem of a lack of data on the grid's status and especially disturbance-related data. These data are necessary to design an accurate disturbance predictor. To overcome this obstacle we introduce a concept of fault injection to simulation of power systems. We develop a framework to simulate a behavior of distribution networks in the presence of faults, and fluctuating generation and load that, alone or combined, may cause disturbances. With the framework we generate a large set of data that we use to develop and evaluate a voltage-sag disturbance predictor. To quantify how prediction and proactive mitigation of disturbances enhance availability we create an availability model of a proactive management. The model is generic and may be applied to evaluate the effect of proactive management on availability in other types of systems, and adapted for quantifying other types of properties as well. Also, we design a metric and a method for optimizing failure prediction to maximize availability with proactive approach. In our conclusion, the level of availability improvement with proactive approach is comparable to the one when using high-reliability and costly components. Following the results of the case study conducted for a 14-bus ADN, grid's availability may be improved by up to an order of magnitude if disturbances are managed proactively instead of reactively. The main results and contributions may be summarized as follows: (i) Taxonomy of faults in Smart Grid has been developed; (ii) Methodology and methods for proactive management of disturbances have been proposed; (iii) Model to quantify availability with proactive management has been developed; (iv) Simulation and fault-injection framework has been designed and implemented to generate disturbance-related data; (v) In the scope of a case study, a voltage-sag predictor, based on machine- learning classification algorithms, has been designed and the effect of proactive disturbance management on downtime and availability has been quantified

Benchmarking tests on recovery oriented computing

textBenchmarks have played a very important role in guiding the progress of computer science systems in various ways. Specifically, in Autonomous environments it has a major role to play. System crashes and software failures are a basic part of a software system’s life-cycle and to overcome or rather make it as less vulnerable as possible is the main purpose of recovery oriented computing. This is usually done by trying to reduce the downtime by automatically and efficiently recovering from a broad class of transient software failures without having to modify applications. There have been various types of benchmarks for recovering from a failure, but in this paper we intend to create a benchmark framework called the warning benchmarks to measure and evaluate the recovery oriented systems. It consists of the known and the unknown failures and few benchmark techniques which the warning benchmarks handle with the help of various other techniques in software fault analysis.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

Intelligent systems in manufacturing: current developments and future prospects

Global competition and rapidly changing customer requirements are demanding increasing changes in manufacturing environments. Enterprises are required to constantly redesign their products and continuously reconfigure their manufacturing systems. Traditional approaches to manufacturing systems do not fully satisfy this new situation. Many authors have proposed that artificial intelligence will bring the flexibility and efficiency needed by manufacturing systems. This paper is a review of artificial intelligence techniques used in manufacturing systems. The paper first defines the components of a simplified intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS), the different Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to be considered and then shows how these AI techniques are used for the components of IMS

Cross layer reliability estimation for digital systems

Forthcoming manufacturing technologies hold the promise to increase multifuctional computing systems performance and functionality thanks to a remarkable growth of the device integration density. Despite the benefits introduced by this technology improvements, reliability is becoming a key challenge for the semiconductor industry. With transistor size reaching the atomic dimensions, vulnerability to unavoidable fluctuations in the manufacturing process and environmental stress rise dramatically. Failing to meet a reliability requirement may add excessive re-design cost to recover and may have severe consequences on the success of a product. %Worst-case design with large margins to guarantee reliable operation has been employed for long time. However, it is reaching a limit that makes it economically unsustainable due to its performance, area, and power cost. One of the open challenges for future technologies is building ``dependable'' systems on top of unreliable components, which will degrade and even fail during normal lifetime of the chip. Conventional design techniques are highly inefficient. They expend significant amount of energy to tolerate the device unpredictability by adding safety margins to a circuit's operating voltage, clock frequency or charge stored per bit. Unfortunately, the additional cost introduced to compensate unreliability are rapidly becoming unacceptable in today's environment where power consumption is often the limiting factor for integrated circuit performance, and energy efficiency is a top concern. Attention should be payed to tailor techniques to improve the reliability of a system on the basis of its requirements, ending up with cost-effective solutions favoring the success of the product on the market. Cross-layer reliability is one of the most promising approaches to achieve this goal. Cross-layer reliability techniques take into account the interactions between the layers composing a complex system (i.e., technology, hardware and software layers) to implement efficient cross-layer fault mitigation mechanisms. Fault tolerance mechanism are carefully implemented at different layers starting from the technology up to the software layer to carefully optimize the system by exploiting the inner capability of each layer to mask lower level faults. For this purpose, cross-layer reliability design techniques need to be complemented with cross-layer reliability evaluation tools, able to precisely assess the reliability level of a selected design early in the design cycle. Accurate and early reliability estimates would enable the exploration of the system design space and the optimization of multiple constraints such as performance, power consumption, cost and reliability. This Ph.D. thesis is devoted to the development of new methodologies and tools to evaluate and optimize the reliability of complex digital systems during the early design stages. More specifically, techniques addressing hardware accelerators (i.e., FPGAs and GPUs), microprocessors and full systems are discussed. All developed methodologies are presented in conjunction with their application to real-world use cases belonging to different computational domains