Modelling the Galaxy in the era of Gaia

The body of photometric and astrometric data on stars in the Galaxy has been growing very fast in recent years (Hipparcos/Tycho, OGLE-3, 2-Mass, DENIS, UCAC2, SDSS, RAVE, Pan Starrs, Hermes, ...) and in two years ESA will launch the Gaia satellite, which will measure astrometric data of unprecedented precision for a billion stars. On account of our position within the Galaxy and the complex observational biases that are built into most catalogues, dynamical models of the Galaxy are a prerequisite full exploitation of these catalogues. On account of the enormous detail in which we can observe the Galaxy, models of great sophistication are required. Moreover, in addition to models we require algorithms for observing them with the same errors and biases as occur in real observational programs, and statistical algorithms for determining the extent to which a model is compatible with a given body of data. JD5 reviewed the status of our knowledge of the Galaxy, the different ways in which we could model the Galaxy, and what will be required to extract our science goals from the data that will be on hand when the Gaia Catalogue becomes available.Comment: Proceedings of Joint Discussion 5 at IAU XXVII, Rio de Janeiro, August 2009; 31 page

Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program%u2019s effects on health and schooling. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties in the U.S. to develop Head Start funding proposals. The result was a large and lasting discontinuity in Head Start funding rates at the OEO cutoff for grant-writing assistance, but no discontinuity in other forms of federal social spending. We find evidence of a large negative discontinuity at the OEO cutoff in mortality rates for children ages 5-9 from causes that could be affected by Head Start, but not for other mortality causes or birth cohorts that should not be affected by the program. We also find suggestive evidence for a positive effect of Head Start on educational attainment in both the 1990 Census, concentrated among those cohorts born late enough to have been exposed to the program, and among respondents in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988.

Gas hydrate technology: state of the art and future possibilities for Europe

Interest in natural gas hydrates has been steadily increasing over the last few decades, with the understanding that exploitation of this abundant unconventional source may help meet the ever-increasing energy demand and assist in reduction of CO2 emission (by replacing coal). Unfortunately, conventional technologies for oil and gas exploitation are not fully appropriate for the specific exploitation of gas hydrate. Consequently, the technology chain, from exploration through production to monitoring, needs to be further developed and adapted to the specific properties and conditions associated with gas hydrates, in order to allow for a commercially and environmentally sound extraction of gas from gas hydrate deposits. Various academic groups and companies within the European region have been heavily involved in theoretical and applied research of gas hydrate for more than a decade. To demonstrate this, Fig. 1.1 shows a selection of leading European institutes that are actively involved in gas hydrate research. A significant number of these institutes have been strongly involved in recent worldwide exploitation of gas hydrate, which are shown in Fig. 1.2 and summarized in Table 1.1. Despite the state of knowledge, no field trials have been carried out so far in European waters. MIGRATE (COST action ES1405) aims to pool together expertise of a large number of European research groups and industrial players to advance gas-hydrate related activity with the ultimate goal of preparing the setting for a field production test in European waters. This MIGRATE report presents an overview of current technologies related to gas hydrate exploration (Chapter 2), production (Chapter 3) and monitoring (Chapter 4), with an emphasis on European activity. This requires covering various activities within different disciplines, all of which contribute to the technology development needed for future cost-effective gas production. The report points out future research and work areas (Chapter 5) that would bridge existing knowledge gaps, through multinational collaboration and interdisciplinary approaches

Does Head Start Improve Children’s Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the programs effects on health and schooling. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties in the U.S. to develop Head Start funding proposals. The result was a large and lasting discontinuity in Head Start funding rates at the OEO cutoff for grant-writing assistance, but no discontinuity in other forms of federal social spending. We find evidence of a large negative discontinuity at the OEO cutoff in mortality rates for children ages 5-9 from causes that could be affected by Head Start, but not for other mortality causes or birth cohorts that should not be affected by the program. We also find suggestive evidence for a positive effect of Head Start on educational attainment in both the 1990 Census, concentrated among those cohorts born late enough to have been exposed to the program, and among respondents in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988.heat start, reform, labor

Agent-based pedestrian modelling

When the focus of interest in geographical systems is at the very fine scale, at the level of streets and buildings for example, movement becomes central to simulations of how spatial activities are used and develop. Recent advances in computing power and the acquisition of fine scale digital data now mean that we are able to attempt to understand and predict such phenomena with the focus in spatial modelling changing to dynamic simulations of the individual and collective behaviour of individual decision-making at such scales. In this Chapter, we develop ideas about how such phenomena can be modelled showing first how randomness and geometry are all important to local movement and how ordered spatial structures emerge from such actions. We focus on developing these ideas for pedestrians showing how random walks constrained by geometry but aided by what agents can see, determine how individuals respond to locational patterns. We illustrate these ideas with three types of example: first for local scale street scenes where congestion and flocking is all important, second for coarser scale shopping centres such as malls where economic preference interferes much more with local geometry, and finally for semi-organised street festivals where management and control by police and related authorities is integral to the way crowds move

Radial Velocity Prospects Current and Future: A White Paper Report prepared by the Study Analysis Group 8 for the Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG)

[Abridged] The Study Analysis Group 8 of the NASA Exoplanet Analysis Group was convened to assess the current capabilities and the future potential of the precise radial velocity (PRV) method to advance the NASA goal to "search for planetary bodies and Earth-like planets in orbit around other stars.: (U.S. National Space Policy, June 28, 2010). PRVs complement other exoplanet detection methods, for example offering a direct path to obtaining the bulk density and thus the structure and composition of transiting exoplanets. Our analysis builds upon previous community input, including the ExoPlanet Community Report chapter on radial velocities in 2008, the 2010 Decadal Survey of Astronomy, the Penn State Precise Radial Velocities Workshop response to the Decadal Survey in 2010, and the NSF Portfolio Review in 2012. The radial-velocity detection of exoplanets is strongly endorsed by both the Astro 2010 Decadal Survey "New Worlds, New Horizons" and the NSF Portfolio Review, and the community has recommended robust investment in PRVs. The demands on telescope time for the above mission support, especially for systems of small planets, will exceed the number of nights available using instruments now in operation by a factor of at least several for TESS alone. Pushing down towards true Earth twins will require more photons (i.e. larger telescopes), more stable spectrographs than are currently available, better calibration, and better correction for stellar jitter. We outline four hypothetical situations for PRV work necessary to meet NASA mission exoplanet science objectives.Comment: ExoPAG SAG 8 final report, 112 pages, fixed author name onl

Transformation in a changing climate: a research agenda

The concept of transformation in relation to climate and other global change is increasingly receiving attention. The concept provides important opportunities to help examine how rapid and fundamental change to address contemporary global challenges can be facilitated. This paper contributes to discussions about transformation by providing a social science, arts and humanities perspective to open up discussion and set out a research agenda about what it means to transform and the dimensions, limitations and possibilities for transformation. Key focal areas include: (1) change theories, (2) knowing whether transformation has occurred or is occurring; (3) knowledge production and use; (4), governance; (5) how dimensions of social justice inform transformation; (6) the limits of human nature; (7) the role of the utopian impulse; (8) working with the present to create new futures; and (9) human consciousness. In addition to presenting a set of research questions around these themes the paper highlights that much deeper engagement with complex social processes is required; that there are vast opportunities for social science, humanities and the arts to engage more directly with the climate challenge; that there is a need for a massive upscaling of efforts to understand and shape desired forms of change; and that, in addition to helping answer important questions about how to facilitate change, a key role of the social sciences, humanities and the arts in addressing climate change is to critique current societal patterns and to open up new thinking. Through such critique and by being more explicit about what is meant by transformation, greater opportunities will be provided for opening up a dialogue about change, possible futures and about what it means to re-shape the way in which people live