Targeting Bayes factors with direct-path non-equilibrium thermodynamic integration

Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a comparatively small number of parameters, intrinsic errors from sampling fluctuations may outweigh the differences in the log marginal likelihood estimates. In the present article, we propose a thermodynamic integration scheme that directly targets the log Bayes factor. The method is based on a modified annealing path between the posterior distributions of the two models compared, which systematically avoids the high variance prior regime. We combine this scheme with the concept of non-equilibrium TI to minimise discretisation errors from numerical integration. Results obtained on Bayesian regression models applied to standard benchmark data, and a complex hierarchical model applied to biopathway inference, demonstrate a significant reduction in estimator variance over state-of-the-art TI methods

In-silico-Systemanalyse von Biopathways

Chen M. In silico systems analysis of biopathways. Bielefeld (Germany): Bielefeld University; 2004.In the past decade with the advent of high-throughput technologies, biology has migrated from a descriptive science to a predictive one. A vast amount of information on the metabolism have been produced; a number of specific genetic/metabolic databases and computational systems have been developed, which makes it possible for biologists to perform in silico analysis of metabolism. With experimental data from laboratory, biologists wish to systematically conduct their analysis with an easy-to-use computational system. One major task is to implement molecular information systems that will allow to integrate different molecular database systems, and to design analysis tools (e.g. simulators of complex metabolic reactions). Three key problems are involved: 1) Modeling and simulation of biological processes; 2) Reconstruction of metabolic pathways, leading to predictions about the integrated function of the network; and 3) Comparison of metabolism, providing an important way to reveal the functional relationship between a set of metabolic pathways. This dissertation addresses these problems of in silico systems analysis of biopathways. We developed a software system to integrate the access to different databases, and exploited the Petri net methodology to model and simulate metabolic networks in cells. It develops a computer modeling and simulation technique based on Petri net methodology; investigates metabolic networks at a system level; proposes a markup language for biological data interchange among diverse biological simulators and Petri net tools; establishes a web-based information retrieval system for metabolic pathway prediction; presents an algorithm for metabolic pathway alignment; recommends a nomenclature of cellular signal transduction; and attempts to standardize the representation of biological pathways. Hybrid Petri net methodology is exploited to model metabolic networks. Kinetic modeling strategy and Petri net modeling algorithm are applied to perform the processes of elements functioning and model analysis. The proposed methodology can be used for all other metabolic networks or the virtual cell metabolism. Moreover, perspectives of Petri net modeling and simulation of metabolic networks are outlined. A proposal for the Biology Petri Net Markup Language (BioPNML) is presented. The concepts and terminology of the interchange format, as well as its syntax (which is based on XML) are introduced. BioPNML is designed to provide a starting point for the development of a standard interchange format for Bioinformatics and Petri nets. The language makes it possible to exchange biology Petri net diagrams between all supported hardware platforms and versions. It is also designed to associate Petri net models and other known metabolic simulators. A web-based metabolic information retrieval system, PathAligner, is developed in order to predict metabolic pathways from rudimentary elements of pathways. It extracts metabolic information from biological databases via the Internet, and builds metabolic pathways with data sources of genes, sequences, enzymes, metabolites, etc. The system also provides a navigation platform to investigate metabolic related information, and transforms the output data into XML files for further modeling and simulation of the reconstructed pathway. An alignment algorithm to compare the similarity between metabolic pathways is presented. A new definition of the metabolic pathway is proposed. The pathway defined as a linear event sequence is practical for our alignment algorithm. The algorithm is based on strip scoring the similarity of 4-hierarchical EC numbers involved in the pathways. The algorithm described has been implemented and is in current use in the context of the PathAligner system. Furthermore, new methods for the classification and nomenclature of cellular signal transductions are recommended. For each type of characterized signal transduction, a unique ST number is provided. The Signal Transduction Classification Database (STCDB), based on the proposed classification and nomenclature, has been established. By merging the ST numbers with EC numbers, alignments of biopathways are possible. Finally, a detailed model of urea cycle that includes gene regulatory networks, metabolic pathways and signal transduction is demonstrated by using our approaches. A system biological interpretation of the observed behavior of the urea cycle and its related transcriptomics information is proposed to provide new insights for metabolic engineering and medical care

Approximate parameter inference in systems biology using gradient matching: a comparative evaluation

Background: A challenging problem in current systems biology is that of parameter inference in biological pathways expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Conventional methods that repeatedly numerically solve the ODEs have large associated computational costs. Aimed at reducing this cost, new concepts using gradient matching have been proposed, which bypass the need for numerical integration. This paper presents a recently established adaptive gradient matching approach, using Gaussian processes, combined with a parallel tempering scheme, and conducts a comparative evaluation with current state of the art methods used for parameter inference in ODEs. Among these contemporary methods is a technique based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). This has previously shown promising results for parameter estimation, but under lax experimental settings. We look at a range of scenarios to test the robustness of this method. We also change the approach of inferring the penalty parameter from AIC to cross validation to improve the stability of the method. Methodology: Methodology for the recently proposed adaptive gradient matching method using Gaussian processes, upon which we build our new method, is provided. Details of a competing method using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces are also described here. Results: We conduct a comparative analysis for the methods described in this paper, using two benchmark ODE systems. The analyses are repeated under different experimental settings, to observe the sensitivity of the techniques. Conclusions: Our study reveals that for known noise variance, our proposed method based on Gaussian processes and parallel tempering achieves overall the best performance. When the noise variance is unknown, the RKHS method proves to be more robust

Simulation of a Petri net-based Model of the Terpenoid Biosynthesis Pathway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The development and simulation of dynamic models of terpenoid biosynthesis has yielded a systems perspective that provides new insights into how the structure of this biochemical pathway affects compound synthesis. These insights may eventually help identify reactions that could be experimentally manipulated to amplify terpenoid production. In this study, a dynamic model of the terpenoid biosynthesis pathway was constructed based on the Hybrid Functional Petri Net (HFPN) technique. This technique is a fusion of three other extended Petri net techniques, namely Hybrid Petri Net (HPN), Dynamic Petri Net (HDN) and Functional Petri Net (FPN).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The biological data needed to construct the terpenoid metabolic model were gathered from the literature and from biological databases. These data were used as building blocks to create an HFPNe model and to generate parameters that govern the global behaviour of the model. The dynamic model was simulated and validated against known experimental data obtained from extensive literature searches. The model successfully simulated metabolite concentration changes over time (pt) and the observations correlated with known data. Interactions between the intermediates that affect the production of terpenes could be observed through the introduction of inhibitors that established feedback loops within and crosstalk between the pathways.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although this metabolic model is only preliminary, it will provide a platform for analysing various high-throughput data, and it should lead to a more holistic understanding of terpenoid biosynthesis.</p

Probabilistic verification and analysis of biopathway dynamics

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

BioSilicoSystems - A Multipronged Approach Towards Analysis and Representation of Biological Data (PhD Thesis)

The rising field of integrative bioinformatics provides the vital methods to integrate, manage and also to analyze the diverse data and allows gaining new and deeper insights and a clear understanding of the intricate biological systems. The difficulty is not only to facilitate the study of heterogeneous data within the biological context, but it also more fundamental, how to represent and make the available knowledge accessible. Moreover, adding valuable information and functions that persuade the user to discover the interesting relations hidden within the data is, in itself, a great challenge. Also, the cumulative information can provide greater biological insight than is possible with individual information sources. Furthermore, the rapidly growing number of databases and data types poses the challenge of integrating the heterogeneous data types, especially in biology. This rapid increase in the volume and number of data resources drive for providing polymorphic views of the same data and often overlap in multiple resources. &#xd;&#xa;&#xd;&#xa;In this thesis a multi-pronged approach is proposed that deals with various methods for the analysis and representation of the diverse biological data which are present in different data sources. This is an effort to explain and emphasize on different concepts which are developed for the analysis of molecular data and also to explain its biological significance. The hypotheses proposed are in context with various other results and findings published in the past. The approach demonstrated also explains different ways to integrate the molecular data from various sources along with the need for a comprehensive understanding and clear projection of the concept or the algorithm and its results, but with simple means and methods. The multifarious approach proposed in this work comprises of different tools or methods spanning significant areas of bioinformatics research such as data integration, data visualization, biological network construction / reconstruction and alignment of biological pathways. Each tool deals with a unique approach to utilize the molecular data for different areas of biological research and is built based on the kernel of the thesis. Furthermore these methods are combined with graphical representation that make things simple and comprehensible and also helps to understand with ease the underlying biological complexity. Moreover the human eye is often used to and it is more comfortable with the visual representation of the facts