Anytime Point-Based Approximations for Large POMDPs

The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process has long been recognized as a rich framework for real-world planning and control problems, especially in robotics. However exact solutions in this framework are typically computationally intractable for all but the smallest problems. A well-known technique for speeding up POMDP solving involves performing value backups at specific belief points, rather than over the entire belief simplex. The efficiency of this approach, however, depends greatly on the selection of points. This paper presents a set of novel techniques for selecting informative belief points which work well in practice. The point selection procedure is combined with point-based value backups to form an effective anytime POMDP algorithm called Point-Based Value Iteration (PBVI). The first aim of this paper is to introduce this algorithm and present a theoretical analysis justifying the choice of belief selection technique. The second aim of this paper is to provide a thorough empirical comparison between PBVI and other state-of-the-art POMDP methods, in particular the Perseus algorithm, in an effort to highlight their similarities and differences. Evaluation is performed using both standard POMDP domains and realistic robotic tasks

k-best: A new method for real-time decision making

Many real-world problems, such as air-traffic control and factory scheduling, require that a sequence of decisions be made in real time. The real-time constraint means that we typically do not have sufficient time to find a complete solution to the problem using traditional methods before we must commit to a decision. We propose an incremental search approach to making real-time, sequential decisions, and then present a new decision method called k-best, which is both an extension of an existing realtime decision method (MINIMIN) and an approximation to a decision-theoretic approach to the real-time decision problem. We next provide an analytical bound on the worst-case expected error when k-best is used instead of the optimal decision method. The averagecase performance of k-best is then compared to MINIMIN on a set of randomly generated problems. Our results show that k-best is an improvement over MINIMIN, although MIN IMIN performs quite well. Given that MIN IMIN is very efficient and easy to implement, we conclude that it should be the algorithm of choice for many real-time decision problems.

Learning to improve iterative repair scheduling

This paper presents a general learning method for dynamically selecting between repair heuristics in an iterative repair scheduling system. The system employs a version of explanation-based learning called Plausible Explanation-Based Learning (PEBL) that uses multiple examples to confirm conjectured explanations. The basic approach is to conjecture contradictions between a heuristic and statistics that measure the quality of the heuristic. When these contradictions are confirmed, a different heuristic is selected. To motivate the utility of this approach we present an empirical evaluation of the performance of a scheduling system with respect to two different repair strategies. We show that the scheduler that learns to choose between the heuristics outperforms the same scheduler with any one of two heuristics alone

Planning under time pressure

Heuristic search is a technique used pervasively in artificial intelligence and automated planning. Often an agent is given a task that it would like to solve as quickly as possible. It must allocate its time between planning the actions to achieve the task and actually executing them. We call this problem planning under time pressure. Most popular heuristic search algorithms are ill-suited for this setting, as they either search a lot to find short plans or search a little and find long plans. The thesis of this dissertation is: when under time pressure, an automated agent should explicitly attempt to minimize the sum of planning and execution times, not just one or just the other. This dissertation makes four contributions. First we present new algorithms that use modern multi-core CPUs to decrease planning time without increasing execution. Second, we introduce a new model for predicting the performance of iterative-deepening search. The model is as accurate as previous offline techniques when using less training data, but can also be used online to reduce the overhead of iterative-deepening search, resulting in faster planning. Third we show offline planning algorithms that directly attempt to minimize the sum of planning and execution times. And, fourth we consider algorithms that plan online in parallel with execution. Both offline and online algorithms account for a user-specified preference between search and execution, and can greatly outperform the standard utility-oblivious techniques. By addressing the problem of planning under time pressure, these contributions demonstrate that heuristic search is no longer restricted to optimizing solution cost, obviating the need to choose between slow search times and expensive solutions

SHOP2: An HTN Planning System

The SHOP2 planning system received one of the awards for distinguished performance in the 2002 International Planning Competition. This paper describes the features of SHOP2 which enabled it to excel in the competition, especially those aspects of SHOP2 that deal with temporal and metric planning domains