Travel time estimation in congested urban networks using point detectors data

A model for estimating travel time on short arterial links of congested urban networks, using currently available technology, is introduced in this thesis. The objective is to estimate travel time, with an acceptable level of accuracy for real-life traffic problems, such as congestion management and emergency evacuation. To achieve this research objective, various travel time estimation methods, including highway trajectories, multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN) and K –nearest neighbor (K-NN) were applied and tested on the same dataset. The results demonstrate that ANN and K-NN methods outperform linear methods by a significant margin, also, show particularly good performance in detecting congested intervals. To ensure the quality of the analysis results, set of procedures and algorithms based on traffic flow theory and test field information, were introduced to validate and clean the data used to build, train and test the different models

Connected and Automated Vehicles in Urban Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Understanding the components of Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems (TCPS), and inter-relation and interactions among these components are key factors to leverage the full potentials of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs). In a connected environment, CAVs can communicate with other components of TCPS, which include other CAVs, other connected road users, and digital infrastructure. Deploying supporting infrastructure for TCPS, and developing and testing CAV-specific applications in a TCPS environment are mandatory to achieve the CAV potentials. This dissertation specifically focuses on the study of current TCPS infrastructure (Part 1), and the development and verification of CAV applications for an urban TCPS environment (Part 2). Among the TCPS components, digital infrastructure bears sheer importance as without connected infrastructure, the Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) applications cannot be implemented. While focusing on the V2I applications in Part 1, this dissertation evaluates the current digital roadway infrastructure status. The dissertation presents a set of recommendations, based on a review of current practices and future needs. In Part 2, To synergize the digital infrastructure deployment with CAV deployments, two V2I applications are developed for CAVs for an urban TCPS environment. At first, a real-time adaptive traffic signal control algorithm is developed, which utilizes CAV data to compute the signal timing parameters for an urban arterial in the near-congested traffic condition. The analysis reveals that the CAV-based adaptive signal control provides operational benefits to both CVs and non-CVs with limited data from 5% CVs, with 5.6% average speed increase, and 66.7% and 32.4% average maximum queue length and stopped delay reduction, respectively, on a corridor compared to the actuated coordinated scenario. The second application includes the development of a situation-aware left-turning CAV controller module, which optimizes CAV speed based on the follower driver\u27s aggressiveness. Existing autonomous vehicle controllers do not consider the surrounding driver\u27s behavior, which may lead to road rage, and rear-end crashes. The analysis shows that the average travel time reduction for the scenarios with 600, 800 and 1000 veh/hr/lane opposite traffic stream are 61%, 23%, and 41%, respectively, for the follower vehicles, if the follower driver\u27s behavior is considered by CAVs

Understanding the Behavior of Travelers Using Managed Lanes - A Study Using Stated Preference and Revealed Preference Data

This research examined if travelers are paying for travel on managed lanes (MLs) as they indicated that they would in a 2008 survey. The other objectives of this research included estimating travelers’ value of travel time savings (VTTS) and their value of travel time reliability (VOR), and examining the multiple survey designs used in a 2008 survey to identify which survey design better predicted ML traveler behavior. To achieve the objectives, an Internet-based follow-up stated preference (SP) survey of Houston’s Katy Freeway travelers was conducted in 2010. Three survey design methodologies—Db-efficient, random level generation, and adaptive random—were tested in this survey. A total of 3,325 responses were gathered from the survey, and of those, 869 responses were from those who likely also responded to the previous 2008 survey. Mixed logit models were developed for those 869 previous survey respondents to estimate and compare the VTTS to the 2008 survey estimates. It was found that the 2008 survey estimates of the VTTS were very close to the 2010 survey estimates. In addition, separate mixed logit models were developed from the responses obtained from the three different design strategies in the 2010 survey. The implied mean VTTS varied across the design-specific models. Only the Db-efficient design was able to estimate a VOR. Based on this and several other metrics, the Db-efficient design outperformed the other designs. A mixed logit model including all the responses from all three designs was also developed; the implied mean VTTS was estimated as 65 percent ($22/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate, and the implied mean VOR was estimated as 108 percent ($37/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate. Data on actual usage of the MLs were also collected. Based on actual usage, the average VTTS was calculated as $51/hr. However, the$51/hr travelers are paying likely also includes the value travelers place on travel time reliability of the MLs. The total (VTTS+VOR) amount estimated from the all-inclusive model from the survey was $59/hr, which is close to the value estimated from the actual usage. The Db-efficient design estimated this total as$50/hr. This research also shows that travelers have a difficulty in estimating the time they save while using a ML. They greatly overestimate the amount of time saved. It may well be that even though travelers are saving a small amount of time they value that time savings (and avoiding congestion) much higher – possibly similar to their amount of perceived travel time savings. The initial findings from this study, reported here, are consistent with the hypothesis that travelers are paying for their travel on MLs, much as they said that they would in our previous survey. This supports the use of data on intended behavior in policy analysis