Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

Diagnostics and prognostics utilising dynamic Bayesian networks applied to a wind turbine gearbox

The UK has the largest installed capacity of offshore wind and this is set to increase significantly in future years. The difficulty in conducting maintenance offshore leads to increased operation and maintenance costs compared to onshore but with better condition monitoring and preventative maintenance strategies these costs could be reduced. In this paper an on-line condition monitoring system is created that is capable of diagnosing machine component conditions based on an array of sensor readings. It then informs the operator of actions required. This simplifies the role of the operator and the actions required can be optimised within the program to minimise costs. The program has been applied to a gearbox oil testbed to demonstrate its operational suitability. In addition a method for determining the most cost effective maintenance strategy is examined. This method uses a Dynamic Bayesian Network to simulate the degradation of wind turbine components, effectively acting as a prognostics tool, and calculates the cost of various preventative maintenance strategies compared to purely corrective maintenance actions. These methods are shown to reduce the cost of operating wind turbines in the offshore environment

Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Reusable rocket engine turbopump health monitoring system, part 3

Degradation mechanisms and sensor identification/selection resulted in a list of degradation modes and a list of sensors that are utilized in the diagnosis of these degradation modes. The sensor list is divided into primary and secondary indicators of the corresponding degradation modes. The signal conditioning requirements are discussed, describing the methods of producing the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) post-hot-fire test data to be utilized by the Health Monitoring System. Development of the diagnostic logic and algorithms is also presented. The knowledge engineering approach, as utilized, includes the knowledge acquisition effort, characterization of the expert's problem solving strategy, conceptually defining the form of the applicable knowledge base, and rule base, and identifying an appropriate inferencing mechanism for the problem domain. The resulting logic flow graphs detail the diagnosis/prognosis procedure as followed by the experts. The nature and content of required support data and databases is also presented. The distinction between deep and shallow types of knowledge is identified. Computer coding of the Health Monitoring System is shown to follow the logical inferencing of the logic flow graphs/algorithms

Overview of Remaining Useful Life prediction techniques in Through-life Engineering Services

Through-life Engineering Services (TES) are essential in the manufacture and servicing of complex engineering products. TES improves support services by providing prognosis of run-to-failure and time-to-failure on-demand data for better decision making. The concept of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is utilised to predict life-span of components (of a service system) with the purpose of minimising catastrophic failure events in both manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of this paper is to identify failure mechanisms and emphasise the failure events prediction approaches that can effectively reduce uncertainties. It will demonstrate the classification of techniques used in RUL prediction for optimisation of products’ future use based on current products in-service with regards to predictability, availability and reliability. It presents a mapping of degradation mechanisms against techniques for knowledge acquisition with the objective of presenting to designers and manufacturers ways to improve the life-span of components

Improving Aircraft Engines Prognostics and Health Management via Anticipated Model-Based Validation of Health Indicators

The aircraft engines manufacturing industry is subjected to many dependability constraints from certification authorities and economic background. In particular, the costs induced by unscheduled maintenance and delays and cancellations impose to ensure a minimum level of availability. For this purpose, Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is used as a means to perform online periodic assessment of the engines’ health status. The whole PHM methodology is based on the processing of some variables reflecting the system’s health status named Health Indicators. The collecting of HI is an on-board embedded task which has to be specified before the entry into service for matters of retrofit costs. However, the current development methodology of PHM systems is considered as a marginal task in the industry and it is observed that most of the time, the set of HI is defined too late and only in a qualitative way. In this paper, the authors propose a novel development methodology for PHM systems centered on an anticipated model-based validation of HI. This validation is based on the use of uncertainties propagation to simulate the distributions of HI including the randomness of parameters. The paper defines also some performance metrics and criteria for the validation of the HI set. Eventually, the methodology is applied to the development of a PHM solution for an aircraft engine actuation loop. It reveals a lack of performance of the original set of HI and allows defining new ones in order to meet the specifications before the entry into service

Circuit breaker prognostics using SF6 data

Control decisions within future energy networks may take account of the health and condition of network assets, pushing condition monitoring within the smart grid remit. In order to support maintenance decisions, this paper proposes a circuit breaker prognostic system, which ranks circuit breakers in order of maintenance priority. By monitoring the SF6 density within a breaker, the system not only predicts the number of days to a critical level, but also incorporates uncertainty by giving upper and lower bounds on the prediction. This prognostic model, which performs linear regression, will be described in this paper, along with case studies demonstrating ranking breakers based on maintenance priority and prognosis of a leaking breaker. Providing an asset manager with this type of information could allow improved management of his/her assets, potentially deferring maintenance to a time when an outage is already scheduled

Service Knowledge Capture and Reuse

The keynote will start with the need for service knowledge capture and reuse for industrial product-service systems. A novel approach to capture the service damage knowledge about individual component will be presented with experimental results. The technique uses active thermography and image processing approaches for the assessment. The paper will also give an overview of other non-destructive inspection techniques for service damage assessment. A robotic system will be described to automate the damage image capture. The keynote will then propose ways to reuse the knowledge to predict remaining life of the component and feedback to design and manufacturing

Development of an ontology supporting failure analysis of surface safety valves used in Oil & Gas applications

Treball desenvolupat dins el marc del programa 'European Project Semester'.The project describes how to apply Root Cause Analysis (RCA) in the form of a Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) on hydraulically actuated Surface Safety Valves (SSVs) of Xmas trees in oil and gas applications, in order to be able to predict the occurrence of failures and implement preventive measures such as Condition and Performance Monitoring (CPM) to improve the life-span of a valve and decrease maintenance downtime. In the oil and gas industry, valves account for 52% of failures in the system. If these failures happen unexpectedly it can cause a lot of problems. Downtime of the oil well quickly becomes an expensive problem, unscheduled maintenance takes a lot of extra time and the lead-time for replacement parts can be up to 6 months. This is why being able to predict these failures beforehand is something that can bring a lot of benefits to a company. To determine the best course of action to take in order to be able to predict failures, a FMECA report is created. This is an analysis where all possible failures of all components are catalogued and given a Risk Priority Number (RPN), which has three variables: severity, detectability and occurrence. Each of these is given a rating between 0 and 10 and then the variables are multiplied with each other, resulting in the RPN. The components with an RPN above an acceptable risk level are then further investigated to see how to be able to detect them beforehand and how to mitigate the risk that they pose. Applying FMECA to the SSV mean breaking the system down into its components and determining the function, dependency and possible failures. To this end, the SSV is broken up into three sub-systems: the valve, the actuator and the hydraulic system. The hydraulic system is the sub-system of the SSV responsible for containing, transporting and pressurizing of the hydraulic fluid and in turn, the actuator. It also contains all the safety features, such as pressure pilots, and a trip system in case a problem is detected in the oil line. The actuator is, as the name implies, the sub-system which opens and closes the valve. It is made up of a number of parts such as a cylinder, a piston and a spring. These parts are interconnected in a number of ways to allow the actuator to successfully perform its function. The valve is the actual part of the system which interacts with the oil line by opening and closing. Like the actuator, this sub-system is broken down into a number of parts which work together to perform its function. After breaking down and defining each subsystem on a functional level, a model was created using a functional block diagram. Each component also allows for the defining of dependencies and interactions between the different components and a failure diagram for each component. This model integrates the three sub-systems back into one, creating a complete picture of the entire system which can then be used to determine the effects of different failures in components to the rest of the system. With this model completed we created a comprehensive FMECA report and test the different possible CPM solutions to mitigate the largest risks