Fools Rush In: Competitive Effects of Reaction Time in Automated Trading

We explore the competitive effects of reaction time of automated trading strategies in simulated financial markets containing a single exchange with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. A large body of research conducted over several decades has been devoted to trading agent design and simulation, but the majority of this work focuses on pricing strategy and does not consider the time taken for these strategies to compute. In real-world financial markets, speed is known to heavily influence the design of automated trading algorithms, with the generally accepted wisdom that faster is better. Here, we introduce increasingly realistic models of trading speed and profile the computation times of a suite of eminent trading algorithms from the literature. Results demonstrate that: (a) trading performance is impacted by speed, but faster is not always better; (b) the Adaptive-Aggressive (AA) algorithm, until recently considered the most dominant trading strategy in the literature, is outperformed by the simplistic Shaver (SHVR) strategy - shave one tick off the current best bid or ask - when relative computation times are accurately simulated.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures. Author's accepted manuscript. Published in ICAART 2020: Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, pages 82-93. Valletta, Malta, Feb. 2020. V2 edits: source code links moved from reference list to footnote

Deep Learning can Replicate Adaptive Traders in a Limit-Order-Book Financial Market

We report successful results from using deep learning neural networks (DLNNs) to learn, purely by observation, the behavior of profitable traders in an electronic market closely modelled on the limit-order-book (LOB) market mechanisms that are commonly found in the real-world global financial markets for equities (stocks & shares), currencies, bonds, commodities, and derivatives. Successful real human traders, and advanced automated algorithmic trading systems, learn from experience and adapt over time as market conditions change; our DLNN learns to copy this adaptive trading behavior. A novel aspect of our work is that we do not involve the conventional approach of attempting to predict time-series of prices of tradeable securities. Instead, we collect large volumes of training data by observing only the quotes issued by a successful sales-trader in the market, details of the orders that trader is executing, and the data available on the LOB (as would usually be provided by a centralized exchange) over the period that the trader is active. In this paper we demonstrate that suitably configured DLNNs can learn to replicate the trading behavior of a successful adaptive automated trader, an algorithmic system previously demonstrated to outperform human traders. We also demonstrate that DLNNs can learn to perform better (i.e., more profitably) than the trader that provided the training data. We believe that this is the first ever demonstration that DLNNs can successfully replicate a human-like, or super-human, adaptive trader operating in a realistic emulation of a real-world financial market. Our results can be considered as proof-of-concept that a DLNN could, in principle, observe the actions of a human trader in a real financial market and over time learn to trade equally as well as that human trader, and possibly better.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. To be presented at IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence in Financial Engineering (CIFEr), Bengaluru; Nov 18-21, 201

Time Matters: Exploring the Effects of Urgency and Reaction Speed in Automated Traders

We consider issues of time in automated trading strategies in simulated financial markets containing a single exchange with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. In particular, we explore two effects: (i) reaction speed - the time taken for trading strategies to calculate a response to market events; and (ii) trading urgency - the sensitivity of trading strategies to approaching deadlines. Much of the literature on trading agents focuses on optimising pricing strategies only and ignores the effects of time, while real-world markets continue to experience a race to zero latency, as automated trading systems compete to quickly access information and act in the market ahead of others. We demonstrate that modelling reaction speed can significantly alter previously published results, with simple strategies such as SHVR outperforming more complex adaptive algorithms such as AA. We also show that adding a pace parameter to ZIP traders (ZIP-Pace, or ZIPP) can create a sense of urgency that significantly improves profitability.Comment: 22 pages. To be published in A. P. Rocha et al. (Eds.), ICAART 2020, LNAI 12613, 2021. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1912.0277

Speed Traps: Algorithmic Trader Performance Under Alternative Market Structures

Using laboratory experiments, we illustrate that trading algorithms that prioritize low latency pose certain pitfalls in a variety of market structures and configurations. In hybrid double auctions markets with human traders and trading agents, we find superior performance of trading agents to human traders in balanced markets with the same number of human and Zero Intelligence Plus (ZIP) buyers and sellers only, thus providing a partial replication of Das et al. (2001). However, in unbalanced markets and extreme market structures, such as monopolies and duopolies, fast ZIP agents fall into a speed trap and both human participants and slow ZIP agents outperform fast ZIP agents. For human traders, faster reaction time significantly improves trading performance, while Theory of Mind can be detrimental for human buyers, but beneficial for human sellers

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report

Why hasn’t high-frequency trading swept the board? Shares, sovereign bonds and the politics of market structure

In today’s trading of liquid financial instruments, there are two main contending agencements (in Callon’s ‘actor-network’ sense of combinations of humans and nonhuman elements that manifest distributed agency): one agencement yokes together automated high-frequency trading (HFT) and open, anonymous electronic order books; the other is organized above all around the distinction between ‘dealers’ and ‘clients’. Drawing upon interviews with 321 market participants, we examine differences in the relative presence of the two agencements. We focus in this article on the processes that have given rise to especially sharp differences between the trading of shares and of sovereign bonds, and between the trading of the latter in the US and Europe. The article contributes to two literatures: the sociological literature on trading (especially on HFT), which we argue needs expanded to encompass what can be called ‘the politics of market structure’; and the nascent political-economy literature on the processes shaping how sovereign bonds are traded. In terms of underlying theory, we advocate far greater attention in actor-network economic sociology to the state and its agencies and a stronger focus in political economy on materiality.Introduction Cases and data sources An agencement triumphant: The transformation of US and European share trading A partial colonization: The trading of US Treasurys An agencement blocked: sovereign bonds in Europe Conclusion Reference