Toasters, Seat Belts, and Inferring Program Properties

Abstract. Today's software does not come with meaningful guarantees. This position paper explores why this is the case, suggests societal and technical impediments to more dependable software, and considers what realistic, meaningful guarantees for software would be like and how to achieve them. If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster. Clint Eastwood (The Rookie, 1990

SIMULATING CONSUMABLE ORDER FULFILLMENT VIA ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES

Operational availability of naval aircraft through material readiness is critical to ensuring combat power. Supportability of aircraft is a crucial aspect of readiness, influenced by several factors including access to 9B Cognizance Code (COG) aviation consumable repair parts at various supply echelons. Rapidly evolving additive manufacturing (AM) technologies are transforming supply chain dynamics and the traditional aircraft supportability construct. As of June 2022, there are 595 AM assets within the Navy’s inventory—all for research and development purposes. This report simulates 9B COG aviation consumable fulfillment strategies within the U.S. Indo-Pacific sustainment network for a three-year span, inclusive of traditional supply support avenues and a developed set of user-variable capability inputs. Simulated probabilistic demand configurations are modeled from historical trends that exploit a heuristic methodology to assign a “printability” score to each 9B COG requirement, accounting for uncertainty, machine failure rates, and other continuous characteristics of the simulated orders. The results measure simulated lead time across diverse planning horizons in both current and varied operationalized AM sustainment network configurations. This research indicates a measurable lead time reduction of approximately 10% across all 9B order lead times when AM is employed as an order fulfillment source for only 0.5% of orders.NPS Naval Research ProgramThis project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited