To Calibrate & Validate an Agent-Based Simulation Model - An Application of the Combination Framework of BI solution & Multi-agent platform

National audienceIntegrated environmental modeling approaches, especially the agent-based modeling one, are increasingly used in large-scale decision support systems. A major consequence of this trend is the manipulation and generation of huge amount of data in simulations, which must be efficiently managed. Furthermore, calibration and validation are also challenges for Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) approaches when the model has to work with integrated systems involving high volumes of input/output data. In this paper, we propose a calibration and validation approach for an agent-based model, using a Combination Framework of Business intelligence solution and Multi-agent platform (CFBM). The CFBM is a logical framework dedicated to the management of the input and output data in simulations, as well as the corresponding empirical datasets in an integrated way. The calibration and validation of Brown Plant Hopper Prediction model are presented and used throughout the paper as a case study to illustrate the way CFBM manages the data used and generated during the life-cycle of simulation and validation

To Develop a Database Management Tool for Multi-Agent Simulation Platform

Depuis peu, la Modélisation et Simulation par Agents (ABMs) est passée d'une approche dirigée par les modèles à une approche dirigée par les données (Data Driven Approach, DDA). Cette tendance vers l’utilisation des données dans la simulation vise à appliquer les données collectées par les systèmes d’observation à la simulation (Edmonds and Moss, 2005; Hassan, 2009). Dans la DDA, les données empiriques collectées sur les systèmes cibles sont utilisées non seulement pour la simulation des modèles mais aussi pour l’initialisation, la calibration et l’évaluation des résultats issus des modèles de simulation, par exemple, le système d’estimation et de gestion des ressources hydrauliques du bassin Adour-Garonne Français (Gaudou et al., 2013) et l’invasion des rizières du delta du Mékong au Vietnam par les cicadelles brunes (Nguyen et al., 2012d). Cette évolution pose la question du « comment gérer les données empiriques et celles simulées dans de tels systèmes ». Le constat que l’on peut faire est que, si la conception et la simulation actuelles des modèles ont bénéficié des avancées informatiques à travers l’utilisation des plateformes populaires telles que Netlogo (Wilensky, 1999) ou GAMA (Taillandier et al., 2012), ce n'est pas encore le cas de la gestion des données, qui sont encore très souvent gérées de manière ad-hoc. Cette gestion des données dans des Modèles Basés Agents (ABM) est une des limitations actuelles des plateformes de simulation multiagents (SMA). Autrement dit, un tel outil de gestion des données est actuellement requis dans la construction des systèmes de simulation par agents et la gestion des bases de données correspondantes est aussi un problème important de ces systèmes. Dans cette thèse, je propose tout d’abord une structure logique pour la gestion des données dans des plateformes de SMA. La structure proposée qui intègre des solutions de l’Informatique Décisionnelle et des plateformes multi-agents s’appelle CFBM (Combination Framework of Business intelligence and Multi-agent based platform), elle a plusieurs objectifs : (1) modéliser et exécuter des SMAs, (2) gérer les données en entrée et en sortie des simulations, (3) intégrer les données de différentes sources, et (4) analyser les données à grande échelle. Ensuite, le besoin de la gestion des données dans les simulations agents est satisfait par une implémentation de CFBM dans la plateforme GAMA. Cette implémentation présente aussi une architecture logicielle pour combiner entrepôts deIv données et technologies du traitement analytique en ligne (OLAP) dans les systèmes SMAs. Enfin, CFBM est évaluée pour la gestion de données dans la plateforme GAMA à travers le développement de modèles de surveillance des cicadelles brunes (BSMs), où CFBM est utilisé non seulement pour gérer et intégrer les données empiriques collectées depuis le système cible et les résultats de simulation du modèle simulé, mais aussi calibrer et valider ce modèle. L'intérêt de CFBM réside non seulement dans l'amélioration des faiblesses des plateformes de simulation et de modélisation par agents concernant la gestion des données mais permet également de développer des systèmes de simulation complexes portant sur de nombreuses données en entrée et en sortie en utilisant l’approche dirigée par les données.Recently, there has been a shift from modeling driven approach to data driven approach inAgent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). This trend towards the use of data-driven approaches in simulation aims at using more and more data available from the observation systems into simulation models (Edmonds and Moss, 2005; Hassan, 2009). In a data driven approach, the empirical data collected from the target system are used not only for the design of the simulation models but also in initialization, calibration and evaluation of the output of the simulation platform such as e.g., the water resource management and assessment system of the French Adour-Garonne Basin (Gaudou et al., 2013) and the invasion of Brown Plant Hopper on the rice fields of Mekong River Delta region in Vietnam (Nguyen et al., 2012d). That raises the question how to manage empirical data and simulation data in such agentbased simulation platform. The basic observation we can make is that currently, if the design and simulation of models have benefited from advances in computer science through the popularized use of simulation platforms like Netlogo (Wilensky, 1999) or GAMA (Taillandier et al., 2012), this is not yet the case for the management of data, which are still often managed in an ad hoc manner. Data management in ABM is one of limitations of agent-based simulation platforms. Put it other words, such a database management is also an important issue in agent-based simulation systems. In this thesis, I first propose a logical framework for data management in multi-agent based simulation platforms. The proposed framework is based on the combination of Business Intelligence solution and a multi-agent based platform called CFBM (Combination Framework of Business intelligence and Multi-agent based platform), and it serves several purposes: (1) model and execute multi-agent simulations, (2) manage input and output data of simulations, (3) integrate data from different sources; and (4) analyze high volume of data. Secondly, I fulfill the need for data management in ABM by the implementation of CFBM in the GAMA platform. This implementation of CFBM in GAMA also demonstrates a software architecture to combine Data Warehouse (DWH) and Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) technologies into a multi-agent based simulation system. Finally, I evaluate the CFBM for data management in the GAMA platform via the development of a Brown Plant Hopper Surveillance Models (BSMs), where CFBM is used ii not only to manage and integrate the whole empirical data collected from the target system and the data produced by the simulation model, but also to calibrate and validate the models.The successful development of the CFBM consists not only in remedying the limitation of agent-based modeling and simulation with regard to data management but also in dealing with the development of complex simulation systems with large amount of input and output data supporting a data driven approach

To Develop a Database Management Tool for Multi-Agent Simulation Platform

Depuis peu, la Modélisation et Simulation par Agents (ABMs) est passée d'une approche dirigée par les modèles à une approche dirigée par les données (Data Driven Approach, DDA). Cette tendance vers l’utilisation des données dans la simulation vise à appliquer les données collectées par les systèmes d’observation à la simulation (Edmonds and Moss, 2005; Hassan, 2009). Dans la DDA, les données empiriques collectées sur les systèmes cibles sont utilisées non seulement pour la simulation des modèles mais aussi pour l’initialisation, la calibration et l’évaluation des résultats issus des modèles de simulation, par exemple, le système d’estimation et de gestion des ressources hydrauliques du bassin Adour-Garonne Français (Gaudou et al., 2013) et l’invasion des rizières du delta du Mékong au Vietnam par les cicadelles brunes (Nguyen et al., 2012d). Cette évolution pose la question du « comment gérer les données empiriques et celles simulées dans de tels systèmes ». Le constat que l’on peut faire est que, si la conception et la simulation actuelles des modèles ont bénéficié des avancées informatiques à travers l’utilisation des plateformes populaires telles que Netlogo (Wilensky, 1999) ou GAMA (Taillandier et al., 2012), ce n'est pas encore le cas de la gestion des données, qui sont encore très souvent gérées de manière ad-hoc. Cette gestion des données dans des Modèles Basés Agents (ABM) est une des limitations actuelles des plateformes de simulation multiagents (SMA). Autrement dit, un tel outil de gestion des données est actuellement requis dans la construction des systèmes de simulation par agents et la gestion des bases de données correspondantes est aussi un problème important de ces systèmes. Dans cette thèse, je propose tout d’abord une structure logique pour la gestion des données dans des plateformes de SMA. La structure proposée qui intègre des solutions de l’Informatique Décisionnelle et des plateformes multi-agents s’appelle CFBM (Combination Framework of Business intelligence and Multi-agent based platform), elle a plusieurs objectifs : (1) modéliser et exécuter des SMAs, (2) gérer les données en entrée et en sortie des simulations, (3) intégrer les données de différentes sources, et (4) analyser les données à grande échelle. Ensuite, le besoin de la gestion des données dans les simulations agents est satisfait par une implémentation de CFBM dans la plateforme GAMA. Cette implémentation présente aussi une architecture logicielle pour combiner entrepôts deIv données et technologies du traitement analytique en ligne (OLAP) dans les systèmes SMAs. Enfin, CFBM est évaluée pour la gestion de données dans la plateforme GAMA à travers le développement de modèles de surveillance des cicadelles brunes (BSMs), où CFBM est utilisé non seulement pour gérer et intégrer les données empiriques collectées depuis le système cible et les résultats de simulation du modèle simulé, mais aussi calibrer et valider ce modèle. L'intérêt de CFBM réside non seulement dans l'amélioration des faiblesses des plateformes de simulation et de modélisation par agents concernant la gestion des données mais permet également de développer des systèmes de simulation complexes portant sur de nombreuses données en entrée et en sortie en utilisant l’approche dirigée par les données.Recently, there has been a shift from modeling driven approach to data driven approach inAgent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). This trend towards the use of data-driven approaches in simulation aims at using more and more data available from the observation systems into simulation models (Edmonds and Moss, 2005; Hassan, 2009). In a data driven approach, the empirical data collected from the target system are used not only for the design of the simulation models but also in initialization, calibration and evaluation of the output of the simulation platform such as e.g., the water resource management and assessment system of the French Adour-Garonne Basin (Gaudou et al., 2013) and the invasion of Brown Plant Hopper on the rice fields of Mekong River Delta region in Vietnam (Nguyen et al., 2012d). That raises the question how to manage empirical data and simulation data in such agentbased simulation platform. The basic observation we can make is that currently, if the design and simulation of models have benefited from advances in computer science through the popularized use of simulation platforms like Netlogo (Wilensky, 1999) or GAMA (Taillandier et al., 2012), this is not yet the case for the management of data, which are still often managed in an ad hoc manner. Data management in ABM is one of limitations of agent-based simulation platforms. Put it other words, such a database management is also an important issue in agent-based simulation systems. In this thesis, I first propose a logical framework for data management in multi-agent based simulation platforms. The proposed framework is based on the combination of Business Intelligence solution and a multi-agent based platform called CFBM (Combination Framework of Business intelligence and Multi-agent based platform), and it serves several purposes: (1) model and execute multi-agent simulations, (2) manage input and output data of simulations, (3) integrate data from different sources; and (4) analyze high volume of data. Secondly, I fulfill the need for data management in ABM by the implementation of CFBM in the GAMA platform. This implementation of CFBM in GAMA also demonstrates a software architecture to combine Data Warehouse (DWH) and Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) technologies into a multi-agent based simulation system. Finally, I evaluate the CFBM for data management in the GAMA platform via the development of a Brown Plant Hopper Surveillance Models (BSMs), where CFBM is used ii not only to manage and integrate the whole empirical data collected from the target system and the data produced by the simulation model, but also to calibrate and validate the models.The successful development of the CFBM consists not only in remedying the limitation of agent-based modeling and simulation with regard to data management but also in dealing with the development of complex simulation systems with large amount of input and output data supporting a data driven approach

CFBM - A Framework for Data Driven Approach in Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

Recently, there has been a shift from modeling driven approach to data driven approach in Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). This trend towards the use of data-driven approaches in simulation aims at using more and more data available from the observation systems into simulation models [1, 2]. In a data driven approach, the empirical data collected from the target system are used not only for the design of the simulation models but also in initialization, evaluation of the output of the simulation platform. That raises the question how to manage empirical data, simulation data and compare those data in such agent-based simulation platform. In this paper, we first introduce a logical framework for data driven approach in agent-based modeling and simulation. The introduced framework is based on the combination of Business Intelligence solution and a multi-agent based platform called CFBM (Combination Framework of Business intelligence and Multi-agent based platform). Secondly, we demonstrate the application of CFBM for data driven approach via the development of a Brown Plant Hopper Surveillance Models (BSMs), where CFBM is used not only to manage and integrate the whole empirical data collected from the target system and the data produced by the simulation model, but also to initialize and validate the models. The successful development of the CFBM consists not only in remedying the limitation of agent-based modeling and simulation with regard to data management but also in dealing with the development of complex simulation systems with large amount of input and output data supporting a data driven approach

Foundations of GAM Research. Methodological Guidelines for Designing and Conducting Research that Combines Games and Agent-based Models

This thesis presents the development of the games and agent-based model methodology and provides methodological guidelines for using GAM research, i.e., combining games and agent-based models in research. GAM research is rooted in complexity sciences and transdisciplinary research, offering valuable insights into complex, adaptable systems. GAM research has particular relevance in decision-making and complex-system management, thus fostering collaboration among scientists and non-academics from various disciplines. It is an engaging platform for data collection and stakeholder processes, thus enriching causal explanations. It should be noted that GAM research has the potential to overcome the limitations of traditional methods by facilitating hypothesis testing with simulation-based observations of human behaviours. Investigations in GAM research can change how social science addresses pressing global challenges. The immersive nature of games combined with agent-based models offers an innovative approach that attracts diverse participants, making it a promising tool for science that reaches beyond the classic academic spheres. As a comprehensive handbook, this thesis offers researchers inspiration and references for conducting GAM research across diverse application domains. This thesis presents an assessment of the state of research that combines games and agent-based models and proposes a structured approach to making progress in this field. Addressing the lack of a standardised methodology, this thesis is aimed at improving research practices, transparency, and replicability . Practical advice is provided for guiding researchers through designing and conducting GAM research, thus promoting rigorous and comprehensive studies

Real-time supply chain simulation: a big data-driven approach

Simulation of Supply Chains comprises huge amounts of data, resulting in numerous entities flowing in the model. These networks are highly dynamic systems, where entities' relationships and other elements evolve with time, paving the way for real-time Supply Chain decision-support tools capable of using real data. In light of this, a solution comprising of a Big Data Warehouse to store relevant data and a simulation model of an automotive plant, are being developed. The purpose of this paper is to address the modelling approach, which allowed the simulation model to automatically adapt to the data stored in a Big Data Warehouse and thus adapt to new scenarios without manual intervention. The main characteristics of the conceived solution were demonstrated, with emphasis to the real-time and the ability to allow the model to load the state of the system from the Big Data Warehouse.This work has been supported by FCT - Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2019 and by the Doctoral scholarship PDE/BDE/114566/2016 funded by FCT, the Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education, through national funds, and co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) through the Operational Programme for Human Capital (POCH)

Recipes for calibration and validation of agent-based models in cancer biomedicine

Computational models and simulations are not just appealing because of their intrinsic characteristics across spatiotemporal scales, scalability, and predictive power, but also because the set of problems in cancer biomedicine that can be addressed computationally exceeds the set of those amenable to analytical solutions. Agent-based models and simulations are especially interesting candidates among computational modelling strategies in cancer research due to their capabilities to replicate realistic local and global interaction dynamics at a convenient and relevant scale. Yet, the absence of methods to validate the consistency of the results across scales can hinder adoption by turning fine-tuned models into black boxes. This review compiles relevant literature to explore strategies to leverage high-fidelity simulations of multi-scale, or multi-level, cancer models with a focus on validation approached as simulation calibration. We argue that simulation calibration goes beyond parameter optimization by embedding informative priors to generate plausible parameter configurations across multiple dimensions

A Methodology for Internet of Things Business Modeling and Analysis using Agent-Based Simulation

Internet of Things (IoT) is a new vision of an integrated network covering physical objects that are able to collect and exchange data. It enables previously unconnected devices and objects to become connected using equipping devices with communication technology such as sensors and radio frequency identification tags (RFID). As technology progresses towards new paradigm such as IoT, there is a need for an approach to identify the significance of these projects. Conventional simulation modeling and data analysis approaches are not able to capture the system complexity or suffer from a lack of data needed that can help to build a prediction. Agent-based Simulation (ABM) proposes an efficient simulation scheme to capture the structure of this dimension and offer a potential solution. Two case studies were proposed in this research. The first one introduces a conceptual case study addressing the use of agent-based simulations to verify the effectiveness of the business model of IoT. The objective of the study is to assess the feasibility of such application, of the market in the city of Orlando (Florida, United States). The second case study seeks to use ABM to simulate the operational behavior of refrigeration units (7,420) in one of largest retail organizations in Saudi Arabia and assess the economic feasibility of IoT implementation by estimating the return on investment (ROI)

Multi-agent system for simulation and validation of scenarios

Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia Informática e Computação. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201