Does Campaigning on Social Media Make a Difference? Evidence from candidate use of Twitter during the 2015 and 2017 UK Elections

Social media are now a routine part of political campaigns all over the world. However, studies of the impact of campaigning on social platform have thus far been limited to cross-sectional datasets from one election period which are vulnerable to unobserved variable bias. Hence empirical evidence on the effectiveness of political social media activity is thin. We address this deficit by analysing a novel panel dataset of political Twitter activity in the 2015 and 2017 elections in the United Kingdom. We find that Twitter based campaigning does seem to help win votes, a finding which is consistent across a variety of different model specifications including a first difference regression. The impact of Twitter use is small in absolute terms, though comparable with that of campaign spending. Our data also support the idea that effects are mediated through other communication channels, hence challenging the relevance of engaging in an interactive fashion

Organized Behavior Classification of Tweet Sets using Supervised Learning Methods

During the 2016 US elections Twitter experienced unprecedented levels of propaganda and fake news through the collaboration of bots and hired persons, the ramifications of which are still being debated. This work proposes an approach to identify the presence of organized behavior in tweets. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression algorithms are each used to train a model with a data set of 850 records consisting of 299 features extracted from tweets gathered during the 2016 US presidential election. The features represent user and temporal synchronization characteristics to capture coordinated behavior. These models are trained to classify tweet sets among the categories: organic vs organized, political vs non-political, and pro-Trump vs pro-Hillary vs neither. The random forest algorithm performs better with greater than 95% average accuracy and f-measure scores for each category. The most valuable features for classification are identified as user based features, with media use and marking tweets as favorite to be the most dominant.Comment: 51 pages, 5 figure

Detecting Abnormal Behavior in Web Applications

The rapid advance of web technologies has made the Web an essential part of our daily lives. However, network attacks have exploited vulnerabilities of web applications, and caused substantial damages to Internet users. Detecting network attacks is the first and important step in network security. A major branch in this area is anomaly detection. This dissertation concentrates on detecting abnormal behaviors in web applications by employing the following methodology. For a web application, we conduct a set of measurements to reveal the existence of abnormal behaviors in it. We observe the differences between normal and abnormal behaviors. By applying a variety of methods in information extraction, such as heuristics algorithms, machine learning, and information theory, we extract features useful for building a classification system to detect abnormal behaviors.;In particular, we have studied four detection problems in web security. The first is detecting unauthorized hotlinking behavior that plagues hosting servers on the Internet. We analyze a group of common hotlinking attacks and web resources targeted by them. Then we present an anti-hotlinking framework for protecting materials on hosting servers. The second problem is detecting aggressive behavior of automation on Twitter. Our work determines whether a Twitter user is human, bot or cyborg based on the degree of automation. We observe the differences among the three categories in terms of tweeting behavior, tweet content, and account properties. We propose a classification system that uses the combination of features extracted from an unknown user to determine the likelihood of being a human, bot or cyborg. Furthermore, we shift the detection perspective from automation to spam, and introduce the third problem, namely detecting social spam campaigns on Twitter. Evolved from individual spammers, spam campaigns manipulate and coordinate multiple accounts to spread spam on Twitter, and display some collective characteristics. We design an automatic classification system based on machine learning, and apply multiple features to classifying spam campaigns. Complementary to conventional spam detection methods, our work brings efficiency and robustness. Finally, we extend our detection research into the blogosphere to capture blog bots. In this problem, detecting the human presence is an effective defense against the automatic posting ability of blog bots. We introduce behavioral biometrics, mainly mouse and keyboard dynamics, to distinguish between human and bot. By passively monitoring user browsing activities, this detection method does not require any direct user participation, and improves the user experience

Coordinated Information Campaigns on Social Media: A Multifaceted Framework for Detection and Analysis

The prevalence of coordinated information campaigns in social media platforms has significant negative consequences across various domains, including social, political, and economic processes. This paper proposes a multifaceted framework for detecting and analysing coordinated message promotion on social media. By simultaneously considering features related to content, time, and network dimensions, our framework can capture the diverse nature of coordinated activity and identify anomalous user accounts who likely engaged in suspicious behaviour. Unlike existing solutions that rely on specific constraints, our approach is more flexible as it employs specialised components to extract the significant structures within a network and to detect the most unusual interactions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework using two Twitter datasets, the Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA), and long-term discussions on Data Science topics. The results demonstrate our framework's ability to isolate unusual activity from expected normal behaviour and provide valuable insights for further qualitative investigation.Comment: To be presented in the 5th Multidisciplinary International Symposium on Disinformation in Open Online Media (MISDOOM 2023

Fame for sale: efficient detection of fake Twitter followers

$\textit{Fake followers}$ are those Twitter accounts specifically created to inflate the number of followers of a target account. Fake followers are dangerous for the social platform and beyond, since they may alter concepts like popularity and influence in the Twittersphere - hence impacting on economy, politics, and society. In this paper, we contribute along different dimensions. First, we review some of the most relevant existing features and rules (proposed by Academia and Media) for anomalous Twitter accounts detection. Second, we create a baseline dataset of verified human and fake follower accounts. Such baseline dataset is publicly available to the scientific community. Then, we exploit the baseline dataset to train a set of machine-learning classifiers built over the reviewed rules and features. Our results show that most of the rules proposed by Media provide unsatisfactory performance in revealing fake followers, while features proposed in the past by Academia for spam detection provide good results. Building on the most promising features, we revise the classifiers both in terms of reduction of overfitting and cost for gathering the data needed to compute the features. The final result is a novel $\textit{Class A}$ classifier, general enough to thwart overfitting, lightweight thanks to the usage of the less costly features, and still able to correctly classify more than 95% of the accounts of the original training set. We ultimately perform an information fusion-based sensitivity analysis, to assess the global sensitivity of each of the features employed by the classifier. The findings reported in this paper, other than being supported by a thorough experimental methodology and interesting on their own, also pave the way for further investigation on the novel issue of fake Twitter followers