Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

Evolving Clustering Algorithms And Their Application For Condition Monitoring, Diagnostics, & Prognostics

Applications of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) technology requires effective yet generic data driven methods capable of carrying out diagnostics and prognostics tasks without detailed domain knowledge and human intervention. Improved system availability, operational safety, and enhanced logistics and supply chain performance could be achieved, with the widespread deployment of CBM, at a lower cost level. This dissertation focuses on the development of a Mutual Information based Recursive Gustafson-Kessel-Like (MIRGKL) clustering algorithm which operates recursively to identify underlying model structure and parameters from stream type data. Inspired by the Evolving Gustafson-Kessel-like Clustering (eGKL) algorithm, we applied the notion of mutual information to the well-known Mahalanobis distance as the governing similarity measure throughout. This is also a special case of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence where between-cluster shape information (governed by the determinant and trace of the covariance matrix) is omitted and is only applicable in the case of normally distributed data. In the cluster assignment and consolidation process, we proposed the use of the Chi-square statistic with the provision of having different probability thresholds. Due to the symmetry and boundedness property brought in by the mutual information formulation, we have shown with real-world data that the algorithm’s performance becomes less sensitive to the same range of probability thresholds which makes system tuning a simpler task in practice. As a result, improvement demonstrated by the proposed algorithm has implications in improving generic data driven methods for diagnostics, prognostics, generic function approximations and knowledge extractions for stream type of data. The work in this dissertation demonstrates MIRGKL’s effectiveness in clustering and knowledge representation and shows promising results in diagnostics and prognostics applications

Multimodal machine learning for intelligent mobility

Scientific problems are solved by finding the optimal solution for a specific task. Some problems can be solved analytically while other problems are solved using data driven methods. The use of digital technologies to improve the transportation of people and goods, which is referred to as intelligent mobility, is one of the principal beneficiaries of data driven solutions. Autonomous vehicles are at the heart of the developments that propel Intelligent Mobility. Due to the high dimensionality and complexities involved in real-world environments, it needs to become commonplace for intelligent mobility to use data-driven solutions. As it is near impossible to program decision making logic for every eventuality manually. While recent developments of data-driven solutions such as deep learning facilitate machines to learn effectively from large datasets, the application of techniques within safety-critical systems such as driverless cars remain scarce.Autonomous vehicles need to be able to make context-driven decisions autonomously in different environments in which they operate. The recent literature on driverless vehicle research is heavily focused only on road or highway environments but have discounted pedestrianized areas and indoor environments. These unstructured environments tend to have more clutter and change rapidly over time. Therefore, for intelligent mobility to make a significant impact on human life, it is vital to extend the application beyond the structured environments. To further advance intelligent mobility, researchers need to take cues from multiple sensor streams, and multiple machine learning algorithms so that decisions can be robust and reliable. Only then will machines indeed be able to operate in unstructured and dynamic environments safely. Towards addressing these limitations, this thesis investigates data driven solutions towards crucial building blocks in intelligent mobility. Specifically, the thesis investigates multimodal sensor data fusion, machine learning, multimodal deep representation learning and its application of intelligent mobility. This work demonstrates that mobile robots can use multimodal machine learning to derive driver policy and therefore make autonomous decisions.To facilitate autonomous decisions necessary to derive safe driving algorithms, we present an algorithm for free space detection and human activity recognition. Driving these decision-making algorithms are specific datasets collected throughout this study. They include the Loughborough London Autonomous Vehicle dataset, and the Loughborough London Human Activity Recognition dataset. The datasets were collected using an autonomous platform design and developed in house as part of this research activity. The proposed framework for Free-Space Detection is based on an active learning paradigm that leverages the relative uncertainty of multimodal sensor data streams (ultrasound and camera). It utilizes an online learning methodology to continuously update the learnt model whenever the vehicle experiences new environments. The proposed Free Space Detection algorithm enables an autonomous vehicle to self-learn, evolve and adapt to new environments never encountered before. The results illustrate that online learning mechanism is superior to one-off training of deep neural networks that require large datasets to generalize to unfamiliar surroundings. The thesis takes the view that human should be at the centre of any technological development related to artificial intelligence. It is imperative within the spectrum of intelligent mobility where an autonomous vehicle should be aware of what humans are doing in its vicinity. Towards improving the robustness of human activity recognition, this thesis proposes a novel algorithm that classifies point-cloud data originated from Light Detection and Ranging sensors. The proposed algorithm leverages multimodality by using the camera data to identify humans and segment the region of interest in point cloud data. The corresponding 3-dimensional data was converted to a Fisher Vector Representation before being classified by a deep Convolutional Neural Network. The proposed algorithm classifies the indoor activities performed by a human subject with an average precision of 90.3%. When compared to an alternative point cloud classifier, PointNet[1], [2], the proposed framework out preformed on all classes. The developed autonomous testbed for data collection and algorithm validation, as well as the multimodal data-driven solutions for driverless cars, is the major contributions of this thesis. It is anticipated that these results and the testbed will have significant implications on the future of intelligent mobility by amplifying the developments of intelligent driverless vehicles.</div

Distributed and Communication-Efficient Continuous Data Processing in Vehicular Cyber-Physical Systems

Processing the data produced by modern connected vehicles is of increasing interest for vehicle manufacturers to gain knowledge and develop novel functions and applications for the future of mobility.Connected vehicles form Vehicular Cyber-Physical Systems (VCPSs) that continuously sense increasingly large data volumes from high-bandwidth sensors such as LiDARs (an array of laser-based distance sensors that create a 3D map of the surroundings).The straightforward attempt of gathering all raw data from a VCPS to a central location for analysis often fails due to limits imposed by the infrastructure on the communication and storage capacities. In this Licentiate thesis, I present the results from my research that investigates techniques aiming at reducing the data volumes that need to be transmitted from vehicles through online compression and adaptive selection of participating vehicles. As explained in this work, the key to reducing the communication volume is in pushing parts of the necessary processing onto the vehicles\u27 on-board computers, thereby favorably leveraging the available distributed processing infrastructure in a VCPS.The findings highlight that existing analysis workflows can be sped up significantly while reducing their data volume footprint and incurring only modest accuracy decreases. At the same time, the adaptive selection of vehicles for analyses proves to provide a sufficiently large subset of vehicles that have compliant data for further analyses, while balancing the time needed for selection and the induced computational load

A Neural Model of How the Brain Computes Heading from Optic Flow in Realistic Scenes

Animals avoid obstacles and approach goals in novel cluttered environments using visual information, notably optic flow, to compute heading, or direction of travel, with respect to objects in the environment. We present a neural model of how heading is computed that describes interactions among neurons in several visual areas of the primate magnocellular pathway, from retina through V1, MT+, and MSTd. The model produces outputs which are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to human heading estimation data in response to complex natural scenes. The model estimates heading to within 1.5° in random dot or photo-realistically rendered scenes and within 3° in video streams from driving in real-world environments. Simulated rotations of less than 1 degree per second do not affect model performance, but faster simulated rotation rates deteriorate performance, as in humans. The model is part of a larger navigational system that identifies and tracks objects while navigating in cluttered environments.National Science Foundation (SBE-0354378, BCS-0235398); Office of Naval Research (N00014-01-1-0624); National-Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NMA201-01-1-2016

Trip Prediction by Leveraging Trip Histories from Neighboring Users

We propose a novel approach for trip prediction by analyzing user's trip histories. We augment users' (self-) trip histories by adding 'similar' trips from other users, which could be informative and useful for predicting future trips for a given user. This also helps to cope with noisy or sparse trip histories, where the self-history by itself does not provide a reliable prediction of future trips. We show empirical evidence that by enriching the users' trip histories with additional trips, one can improve the prediction error by 15%-40%, evaluated on multiple subsets of the Nancy2012 dataset. This real-world dataset is collected from public transportation ticket validations in the city of Nancy, France. Our prediction tool is a central component of a trip simulator system designed to analyze the functionality of public transportation in the city of Nancy

Developments in Estimation and Control for Cloud-Enabled Automotive Vehicles.

Cloud computing is revolutionizing access to distributed information and computing resources that can facilitate future data and computation intensive vehicular control functions and improve vehicle driving comfort and safety. This dissertation investigates several potential Vehicle-to-Cloud-to-Vehicle (V2C2V) applications that can enhance vehicle control and enable additional functionalities by integrating onboard and cloud resources. Firstly, this thesis demonstrates that onboard vehicle sensors can be used to sense road profiles and detect anomalies. This information can be shared with other vehicles and transportation authorities within a V2C2V framework. The response of hitting a pothole is characterized by a multi-phase dynamic model which is validated by comparing simulation results with a higher-fidelity commercial modeling package. A novel framework of simultaneous road profile estimation and anomaly detection is developed by combining a jump diffusion process (JDP)-based estimator and a multi-input observer. The performance of this scheme is evaluated in an experimental vehicle. In addition, a new clustering algorithm is developed to compress anomaly information by processing anomaly report streams. Secondly, a cloud-aided semi-active suspension control problem is studied demonstrating for the first time that road profile information and noise statistics from the cloud can be used to enhance suspension control. The problem of selecting an optimal damping mode from a finite set of damping modes is considered and the best mode is selected based on performance prediction on the cloud. Finally, a cloud-aided multi-metric route planner is investigated in which safety and comfort metrics augment traditional planning metrics such as time, distance, and fuel economy. The safety metric is developed by processing a comprehensive road and crash database while the comfort metric integrates road roughness and anomalies. These metrics and a planning algorithm can be implemented on the cloud to realize the multi-metric route planning. Real-world case studies are presented. The main contribution of this part of the dissertation is in demonstrating the feasibility and benefits of enhancing the existing route planning algorithms with safety and comfort metrics.PhDAerospace EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/120710/1/zhaojli_1.pd