138,994 research outputs found
Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising
In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display
advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB)
based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the
impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an
investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional
converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the
profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large
randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction
competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance
estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user
click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We
borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display
opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that
penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected
return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the
effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit
gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on
a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies
Cost-sensitive Learning for Utility Optimization in Online Advertising Auctions
One of the most challenging problems in computational advertising is the
prediction of click-through and conversion rates for bidding in online
advertising auctions. An unaddressed problem in previous approaches is the
existence of highly non-uniform misprediction costs. While for model evaluation
these costs have been taken into account through recently proposed
business-aware offline metrics -- such as the Utility metric which measures the
impact on advertiser profit -- this is not the case when training the models
themselves. In this paper, to bridge the gap, we formally analyze the
relationship between optimizing the Utility metric and the log loss, which is
considered as one of the state-of-the-art approaches in conversion modeling.
Our analysis motivates the idea of weighting the log loss with the business
value of the predicted outcome. We present and analyze a new cost weighting
scheme and show that significant gains in offline and online performance can be
achieved.Comment: First version of the paper was presented at NIPS 2015 Workshop on
E-Commerce: https://sites.google.com/site/nips15ecommerce/papers Third
version of the paper will be presented at AdKDD 2017 Workshop:
adkdd17.wixsite.com/adkddtargetad201
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