3,764 research outputs found
Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression
Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of natural gas forecasting. Next, the deep learning method, contrastive divergence is explained. We compare our proposed deep neural network method to a linear regression model and a traditional artificial neural network on 62 operating areas, each of which has at least 10 years of data. The proposed deep network outperforms traditional artificial neural networks by 9.83% weighted mean absolute percent error (WMAPE)
Discriminative conditional restricted Boltzmann machine for discrete choice and latent variable modelling
Conventional methods of estimating latent behaviour generally use attitudinal
questions which are subjective and these survey questions may not always be
available. We hypothesize that an alternative approach can be used for latent
variable estimation through an undirected graphical models. For instance,
non-parametric artificial neural networks. In this study, we explore the use of
generative non-parametric modelling methods to estimate latent variables from
prior choice distribution without the conventional use of measurement
indicators. A restricted Boltzmann machine is used to represent latent
behaviour factors by analyzing the relationship information between the
observed choices and explanatory variables. The algorithm is adapted for latent
behaviour analysis in discrete choice scenario and we use a graphical approach
to evaluate and understand the semantic meaning from estimated parameter vector
values. We illustrate our methodology on a financial instrument choice dataset
and perform statistical analysis on parameter sensitivity and stability. Our
findings show that through non-parametric statistical tests, we can extract
useful latent information on the behaviour of latent constructs through machine
learning methods and present strong and significant influence on the choice
process. Furthermore, our modelling framework shows robustness in input
variability through sampling and validation
Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events
Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video
games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player
experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular,
game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events.
Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player
engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of
several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to
obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational
production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order
to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards
the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the
performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the
outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep
learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast
a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors
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