Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

Optimization of Evolutionary Neural Networks Using Hybrid Learning Algorithms

Evolutionary artificial neural networks (EANNs) refer to a special class of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which evolution is another fundamental form of adaptation in addition to learning. Evolutionary algorithms are used to adapt the connection weights, network architecture and learning algorithms according to the problem environment. Even though evolutionary algorithms are well known as efficient global search algorithms, very often they miss the best local solutions in the complex solution space. In this paper, we propose a hybrid meta-heuristic learning approach combining evolutionary learning and local search methods (using 1st and 2nd order error information) to improve the learning and faster convergence obtained using a direct evolutionary approach. The proposed technique is tested on three different chaotic time series and the test results are compared with some popular neuro-fuzzy systems and a recently developed cutting angle method of global optimization. Empirical results reveal that the proposed technique is efficient in spite of the computational complexity

Classification of Stabilometric Time-Series Using an Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Neural Network System

Stabilometry is a branch of medicine that studies balance-related human functions. The analysis of stabilometric-generated time series can be very useful to the diagnosis and treatment balance-related dysfunctions such as dizziness. In stabilometry, the key nuggets of information in a time series signal are concentrated within definite time periods known as events. In this study, a feature extraction scheme has been developed to identify and characterise the events. The proposed scheme utilises a statistical method that goes through the whole time series from the start to the end, looking for the conditions that define events, according to the experts¿ criteria. Based on these extracted features, an Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AFINN) has been applied for the classification of stabilometric signals. The experimental results validated the proposed methodology