Environmental and economic assessment of the intensive wheat - maize production system in the North China Plain

To ensure food security for its vast population input intensification in crop production has been one of Chinas major strategies in the last decades. However, the negative environmental impact of the highly intensive crop production becomes apparent. Especially the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) constitutes a major sustainability issue of crop production in China. The winter wheat - summer maize (WW-SM) double cropping system plays a crucial role for Chinas national food security. Strong research efforts mainly focusing on field experiments insufficiently consider the economic viability of the proposed improvement strategies and farmersactual crop management. Therefore this study aims to fill this void by assessing farmersactual crop management in the WW-SM production system, with regard to its environmental and economic performance to derive suitable improvement strategies for more sustainable crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). This cumulative PhD thesis consists of three papers published or accepted with revisions in international peer-reviewed journals. A field survey conducted in 2011 interviewing 65 WW-SM producing farm households constitutes the core data base for the thesisanalysis. The data was supplemented by expert interviews and specific secondary data. Partial life cycle analysis and economic assessment were conducted, comprising GHG emission, product carbon footprint (PCF), gross margin (GM), variable cost per unit product and life cycle costing (LCC) as key environmental and economic indicators, respectively. The first article describes the status quo of single farm environmental and economic performance of 65 WW-SM producers. The results revealed a huge heterogeneity among farms. Astonishingly no trade-off between productivity and sustainability could be identified in the region. Building on cluster analysis, with farms grouped according to their economic and environmental performance into poor, fair and good producers, the regional GHG mitigation potential was estimated. Under the scenario assumption that all grain in the NCP is produced under good production conditions, 21% and 7% of GHG could be mitigated in wheat and maize production, respectively. To be able to address the existing heterogeneity and develop strategies towards attaining GHG mitigation in practice, the second article aimed at assessing the factors determining farmers current environmental and economic performance. Using stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) it was revealed that nitrogen (N) input and electricity for irrigation were responsible for 0.787 and 0.802 of variability (adjusted R2) in the GHG emission results of the WW and SM production, respectively. Electricity for irrigation and labor were the most significant factors explaining the differences in LCC of WW and SM production, with an adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) of 0.397 and 0.29. This finding indicates that N input, electricity for irrigation and labor are key target areas for lowering GHG emissions and production costs of the WW-SM production system in the NCP. As revealed in the second article overuse of N fertilizer, which actually constitutes a major current issue in China, offers great potential for reducing GHG emissions and production costs in the WW-SM production system. Therefore in the third article three simple and easily to apply N fertilizer recommendation strategies are tested, which could be implemented on large scale through the existing agricultural advisory system of China, at comparatively low cost. Building on the household dataset, the effects of the three N strategies under constant and changing yield levels on PCF and GM were determined for every individual farm household. The N fixed rate strategy realized the highest improvement potential in PCF and GM in WW; while the N coefficient strategy performed best in SM. The analysis furthermore revealed that improved N management has a significant positive effect on PCF, but only a marginal and insignificant effect on GM. On the other side, a potential 10 % yield loss would have only a marginal effect on PCF, but a detrimental effect on farmersincome. It will be of vital importance to avoid any yield reductions and respective severe financial losses, when promoting and implementing advanced fertilization strategies. Therefore, it is furthermore recommended to increase the price of fertilizer, improve the agricultural extensions system, and recognize farmers fertilizer related decision-making processes as key research areas. The presented thesis gives valuable contributions to the development of environmentally and economically more sustainable crop production systems in the NCP. The thesis concludes that an adjustment in the agricultural advisory system is required, supported by more interdisciplinary research, which is able to address the inherent complexity of realizing more sustainable crop production in China.In seinen Anstrengungen Ernährungssicherheit für seine riesige Bevölkerung zu gewährleisten, stellt die Intensivierung der Pflanzenproduktion Chinas wichtigste Strategie dar. Jedoch treten in den letzten Jahren vermehrt die negativen Umweltwirkungen der hochintensiven Pflanzenproduktion zu Tage. Emission von Treibhausgasen (THG) und der entsprechende Beitrag zur globalen Erwärmung sind besonders ein großes Nachhaltigkeitsproblem der Pflanzenproduktion in China. Als wichtigstes Anbausystem in Nordchina spielt das Winterweizen - Sommermais - Doppelanbausystem eine wichtige Rolle für Chinas Ernährungssicherheit. Die Agrarforschung konzentriert sich auf Feldversuchsbasierte Ansätze. Daher zielt die vorliegende Studie darauf ab, diese Lücke durch die Evaluierung des tatsächlichen ackerbaulichen Managements der Landwirte im WW-SM Produktionssystem zu schließen. Durch die ökologische und ökonomische Bewertung des Systems können passende Verbesserungsstrategien für eine nachhaltigere Pflanzenproduktion in China entwickelt werden, mit besonderem Fokus auf THG Vermeidung in der nordchinesischen Tiefebene (NCT). Diese kumulative Dissertation besteht aus drei Artikeln, die in internationalen peer-reviewed Zeitschriften veröffentlicht oder mit Revision zur Veröffentlichung akzeptiert sind. Eine 2011 durchgeführte Feldstudie bei der 65 WW-SM produzierende landwirtschaftliche Betriebe befragt wurden stellt die Datengrundlage dieser Thesis. Die Daten wurden durch Experteninterviews und spezifische Sekundärdaten ergänzt. Partielle Lebenszyklusanalyse und ökonomische Bewertung wurden durchgeführt, die THG-Emissionen, Produkt-CO2-Fußabdruck (PCF), Deckungsbeitrag (DB), variable Kosten pro Produktionseinheit (VK) und Lebenszykluskosten (LZK) als ökologische und ökonomische Schlüsselindikatoren umfassten. Der erste Artikel beschreibt eine sehr hohe Heterogenität unter den Betrieben. Erstaunlicherweise zeigte sich in der Region nicht der erwartete Zielkonflikt zwischen Produktivität und Nachhaltigkeit; Hochertragsbetreibe emittierten keine erhöhten Mengen an THG pro Hektar im Vergleich zu den Niedrigertragsbetrieben. Aufbauend auf Clusteranalyse, bei der die Betriebe entsprechend ihres ökologischen und ökonomischen Abschneidens nach schwachen, mittleren und guten Betreiben gruppiert wurden, wurde das regionale THG-Vermeidungspotential bewertet. Um die existierende Heterogenität zu adressieren und Treibhausgasvermeidungsstrategien für die Praxis zu entwickeln, zielte der zweite Artikel darauf ab, die Einflussfaktoren des ökonomischen und ökologischen Abschneidens der Landwirte zu eruieren. Während im Durchschnitt 4107 und 3185 kg CO2-äquivalente THG-Emissionen pro Hektar, und LZK von 1176 und 1190 US$ pro Hektar im WW und SM ermittelt wurden, existiert eine gewaltige Streuung unter den Produzenten. Die Ergebnisse zeigt, dass Stickstoffdüngung, Elektrizität für Bewässerung und Arbeitseinsatz die Schlüsselgebiete zur Verringerung der THG-Emissionen und Produktionskosten in der WW und SM Erzeugung in der NCP darstellen. Wie die Analyse des zweiten Artikels gezeigt hat, liegt in der Reduzierung der Stickstoffüberdüngung, die derzeit eines der akutesten Probleme der Pflanzenproduktion in China darstellt, ein sehr großes Potential die THG-Emissionen und Produktionskosten im WW-SM Anbausystem zu reduzieren. Daher werden im dritten Artikel drei klare und einfach anzuwendende N-Düngungsempfehlungsstrategien getestet, die in großem Maßstab durch das existierende landwirtschaftliche Beratungssystem Chinas zu geringen Kosten implementiert werden könnten. Aufbauend auf dem detaillierten Pflanzenproduktions-datensatz der 65 WW-SM produzierenden Betriebe wurde Szenarien-Analyse angewandt. Die Effekte der drei N-Strategien auf PCF und DB wurden unter konstantem und sich verändernden Ertragsniveau unter den Produktionsbedingungen jedes individuellen Haushalts bestimmt. Die N fixierte Rate Strategie erzielte das höchste Verbesserungspotential im PCF und DB im WW; hingegen erzielte die N Koeffizienten Strategie die besten Ergebnisse im SM. Die Analyse hat desweiteren gezeigt, dass ein verbessertes N Management ein signifikant positiven Effekt auf PCF hat, jedoch nur einen marginalen und insignifikanten Effekt auf DB. Auf der anderen Seite hätte ein potentieller Ertragsverlust um 10% nur einen marginalen Effekt auf den PCF, jedoch einen sehr nachteiligen Effekt auf das Einkommen der Landwirte. Die vorliegende Thesis bietet wichtige Beiträge zur Entwicklung ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltigerer Pflanzenproduktionssysteme in der NCT. Die aufeinander aufbauenden Analysen der drei Artikel zeigt klar, dass eine potentielle Optimierung des ackerbaulichen Managements der Landwirte, dass auf eine Verringerung der Umweltbelastung abzielt, gleichzeitig zu einer ökonomisch vorteilhaften Entwicklung führt

A Nonparametric Analysis of Energy Environmental Kuznets Curve in Chinese Provinces

Energy resources are an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society, and the relationship between energy and economy is interactive and complementary. This paper analyzes the energy consumption–economic growth nexus in Chinese provinces using novel and recent nonparametric time-series as well as panel data empirical approaches. The dataset covers 30 provinces over the period of 1980-2018. The empirical analysis indicates the presence of a nonlinear functional form and smooth structural changes in most of the provinces. The nonparametric empirical analysis validates the presence of a nonlinear unit root problem in energy consumption and economic growth, and nonlinear cointegration between the variables. Additionally, the nonparametric panel cointegration test reports evidence of convergence in energy consumption and economic growth patterns across the provinces. The nonparametric regression analysis finds economic growth to have a positive effect, on average, on energy consumption in all provinces, except for Beijing. Further, the energy environmental Kuznets curve exists between economic growth and energy consumption in 20 out of 30 Chinese provinces. The Granger causality analysis reveals the presence of a mixed causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. The empirical findings have important implications for Chinese authorities in planning for improving energy efficiency, decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption, and reducing the environmental footprint of provinces

The roles of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy in industrial energy and related pollutant emission intensities

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This study investigates the different impacts of coordinated development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region on industrial energy and pollution intensities based on the difference-in-difference (DID) method and the quantile DID method. The panel data cover industrial energy consumption and three wastes, which are industrial wastewater, sulfur dioxide, and dust emissions, from all 13 cities in the BTH region and 17 cities in Henan Province for the period 2007–2017. The study finds that China’s BTH coordinated development strategy, on average, tends to restrain regional industrial energy intensity, especially in lower quantile level (0.1–0.4) cities. However, it tends to promote industrial energy intensity in higher quantile level (0.7–0.9) cities. The impacts on pollution intensities vary among industrial wastewater, sulfur dioxide, and dust emissions. The results suggest that, in addition to paying attention to dust pollution caused by transportation integration in the BTH region, China should also pay more attention to green relocation of industries from Beijing to Hebei and strengthen coordinated environmental regulation while maintaining corporate interests

Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in China

A key contribution of environmental economics to policy making has been to provide empirical indicators of sustainable economic development. An economy is (weakly) sustainable if it saves more than the combined depreciation of its stocks of natural capital and produced capital. Thus, these indicators allow trade-offs where, for example, natural capital might be depreciated in order to build up other forms of capital, such as in the built environment or in the form of human capital. As an application of this general idea, this thesis focuses on the trade-offs between ecosystem services, provided by natural capital, and certain land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in China. With better understanding of these trade-offs, this thesis contributes to optimum management for sustaining ecosystem services and supporting socio-economic development. The three case study areas are Hebei, Qinghai and Shandong provinces. I study trade-offs between landscape diversity and crop production, between grassland quality and livestock production, and between net primary productivity (NPP, a measure of the energy that enters ecosystems) and urbanization. After reviewing trade-off analyses of ecosystem services for sustainable land-use management (Chapter 2), the case studies are presented, with two chapters on Hebei, one on Qinghai, and three on Shandong. These chapters have econometric models for monitoring and assessing LUCC-induced ecosystem service changes, to enable quantitative analysis of the mechanisms available for policy-oriented optimum land-use management. The case study areas each have different policy interventions that are designed to preserve or restore natural capital. For example, Hebei has ecological restoration programs, such as the Green for Grain program, that are implemented in an attempt to conserve landscape diversity. Qinghai province has policies of enhancing ecological restoration for grassland conservation, in order to improve livestock production. Shandong province has enforced a prime cropland preservation policy in order to ensure high cropland productivity. Collectively, the case studies add to the literature on the use of sustainable land-use management strategies, while helping to illustrate some of the trade-offs that are central to environmental economics. The results highlight issues created by conversion of cultivated land to urban use, in both Hebei and Shandong. In Qinghai province, grassland degradation, livestock production and farmers’ income interact and affect LUCC and changes in ecosystem services. Restorative interventions, such as nature reserves, seem to have a positive effect on NPP, as a measure of ecosystem productivity. On the other hand, in Shandong province there is relatively low land productivity, as measured by the NPP, in regions covered by built-up area. While this thesis does not calculate a value for the produced capital and human capital in built-up areas, the reduction in the value of natural capital as a result of urbanization highlights the potential trade-offs and the need for careful measurement to help whether China is on a sustainable development path. In summary, the research in this thesis examines various land-use practices and management regimes for conserving ecosystem services, and contributes to the literature on how management of land use change and land cover change can influence ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing China