636,562 research outputs found

    On dynamic spectral risk measures, a limit theorem and optimal portfolio allocation

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    In this paper we propose the notion of continuous-time dynamic spectral risk-measure (DSR). Adopting a Poisson random measure setting, we define this class of dynamic coherent risk-measures in terms of certain backward stochastic differential equations. By establishing a functional limit theorem, we show that DSRs may be considered to be (strongly) time-consistent continuous-time extensions of iterated spectral risk-measures, which are obtained by iterating a given spectral risk-measure (such as Expected Shortfall) along a given time-grid. Specifically, we demonstrate that any DSR arises in the limit of a sequence of such iterated spectral risk-measures driven by lattice-random walks, under suitable scaling and vanishing time- and spatial-mesh sizes. To illustrate its use in financial optimisation problems, we analyse a dynamic portfolio optimisation problem under a DSR.Comment: To appear in Finance and Stochastic

    Comparisons for backward stochastic differential equations on Markov chains and related no-arbitrage conditions

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    Most previous contributions to BSDEs, and the related theories of nonlinear expectation and dynamic risk measures, have been in the framework of continuous time diffusions or jump diffusions. Using solutions of BSDEs on spaces related to finite state, continuous time Markov chains, we develop a theory of nonlinear expectations in the spirit of [Dynamically consistent nonlinear evaluations and expectations (2005) Shandong Univ.]. We prove basic properties of these expectations and show their applications to dynamic risk measures on such spaces. In particular, we prove comparison theorems for scalar and vector valued solutions to BSDEs, and discuss arbitrage and risk measures in the scalar case.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP619 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

    Merging of Opinions under Uncertainty

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    We consider long-run behavior of agents assessing risk in terms of dynamic convex risk measures or, equivalently, utility in terms of dynamic variational preferences in an uncertain setting. By virtue of a robust representation, we show that all uncertainty is revealed in the limit and agents behave as expected utility maximizer under the true underlying distribution regardless of their initial risk anticipation. In particular, risk assessments of distinct agents converge. This result is a generalization of the fundamental Blackwell-Dubins Theorem, cp. [Blackwell & Dubins, 62], to convex risk. We furthermore show the result to hold in a non-time-consistent environment.Dynamic Convex Risk Measures, Multiple Priors, Uncertainty, Robust Representation, Time-Consistency, Blackwell-Dubins

    Merging of Opinions under Uncertainty

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    We consider long-run behavior of agents assessing risk in terms of dynamic convex risk measures or, equivalently, utility in terms of dynamic variational preferences in an uncertain setting. By virtue of a robust representation, we show that all uncertainty is revealed in the limit and agents behave as expected utility maximizer under the true underlying distribution regardless of their initial risk anticipation. In particular, risk assessments of distinct agents converge. This result is a generalization of the fundamental Blackwell-Dubins Theorem, cp. [Blackwell & Dubins, 62], to convex risk. We furthermore show the result to hold in a non -time-consistent environment.Dynamic Convex Risk Measures, Multiple Priors, Uncertainty, Robust Representation, Time-Consistency, Blackwell-Dubins.

    Time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures generated by distortion functions

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    The aim of this work is to study risk measures generated by distortion functions in a dynamic discrete time setup, and to investigate the corresponding dynamic coherent acceptability indices (DCAIs) generated by families of such risk measures. First we show that conditional version of Choquet integrals indeed are dynamic coherent risk measures (DCRMs), and also introduce the class of dynamic weighted value at risk measures. We prove that these two classes of risk measures coincides. In the spirit of robust representations theorem for DCAIs, we establish some relevant properties of families of DCRMs generated by distortion functions, and then define and study the corresponding DCAIs. Second, we study the time consistency of DCRMs and DCAIs generated by distortion functions. In particular, we prove that such DCRMs are sub-martingale time consistent, but they are not super-martingale time consistent. We also show that DCRMs generated by distortion functions are not weakly acceptance time consistent. We also present several widely used classes of distortion functions and derive some new representations of these distortions.Comment: This manuscript is accompanied by a supplement that contains some technical, but important, results and their proof

    Time consistency of multi-period distortion measures

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    Dynamic risk measures play an important role for the acceptance or non-acceptance of risks in a bank portfolio. Dynamic consistency and weaker versions like conditional and sequential consistency guarantee that acceptability decisions remain consistent in time. An important set of static risk measures are so-called distortion measures. We extend these risk measures to a dynamic setting within the framework of the notions of consistency as above. As a prominent example, we present the Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR
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