Practical bounds on the error of Bayesian posterior approximations: A nonasymptotic approach

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain Monte Carlo, remain the gold standard for approximate Bayesian inference because they have a robust finite-sample theory and reliable convergence diagnostics. However, alternative methods, which are more scalable or apply to problems where Markov Chain Monte Carlo cannot be used, lack the same finite-data approximation theory and tools for evaluating their accuracy. In this work, we develop a flexible new approach to bounding the error of mean and uncertainty estimates of scalable inference algorithms. Our strategy is to control the estimation errors in terms of Wasserstein distance, then bound the Wasserstein distance via a generalized notion of Fisher distance. Unlike computing the Wasserstein distance, which requires access to the normalized posterior distribution, the Fisher distance is tractable to compute because it requires access only to the gradient of the log posterior density. We demonstrate the usefulness of our Fisher distance approach by deriving bounds on the Wasserstein error of the Laplace approximation and Hilbert coresets. We anticipate that our approach will be applicable to many other approximate inference methods such as the integrated Laplace approximation, variational inference, and approximate Bayesian computationComment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Approximate Consensus in Highly Dynamic Networks: The Role of Averaging Algorithms

In this paper, we investigate the approximate consensus problem in highly dynamic networks in which topology may change continually and unpredictably. We prove that in both synchronous and partially synchronous systems, approximate consensus is solvable if and only if the communication graph in each round has a rooted spanning tree, i.e., there is a coordinator at each time. The striking point in this result is that the coordinator is not required to be unique and can change arbitrarily from round to round. Interestingly, the class of averaging algorithms, which are memoryless and require no process identifiers, entirely captures the solvability issue of approximate consensus in that the problem is solvable if and only if it can be solved using any averaging algorithm. Concerning the time complexity of averaging algorithms, we show that approximate consensus can be achieved with precision of $\varepsilon$ in a coordinated network model in $O(n^{n+1} \log\frac{1}{\varepsilon})$ synchronous rounds, and in $O(\Delta n^{n\Delta+1} \log\frac{1}{\varepsilon})$ rounds when the maximum round delay for a message to be delivered is $\Delta$. While in general, an upper bound on the time complexity of averaging algorithms has to be exponential, we investigate various network models in which this exponential bound in the number of nodes reduces to a polynomial bound. We apply our results to networked systems with a fixed topology and classical benign fault models, and deduce both known and new results for approximate consensus in these systems. In particular, we show that for solving approximate consensus, a complete network can tolerate up to 2n-3 arbitrarily located link faults at every round, in contrast with the impossibility result established by Santoro and Widmayer (STACS '89) showing that exact consensus is not solvable with n-1 link faults per round originating from the same node

Brief Announcement: Lower Bounds for Asymptotic Consensus in Dynamic Networks

In this work we study the performance of asymptotic and approximate consensus algorithms in dynamic networks. The asymptotic consensus problem requires a set of agents to repeatedly set their outputs such that the outputs converge to a common value within the convex hull of initial values. This problem, and the related approximate consensus problem, are fundamental building blocks in distributed systems where exact consensus among agents is not required, e.g., man-made distributed control systems, and have applications in the analysis of natural distributed systems, such as flocking and opinion dynamics. We prove new nontrivial lower bounds on the contraction rates of asymptotic consensus algorithms, from which we deduce lower bounds on the time complexity of approximate consensus algorithms. In particular, the obtained bounds show optimality of asymptotic and approximate consensus algorithms presented in [Charron-Bost et al., ICALP\u2716] for certain classes of networks that include classical failure assumptions, and confine the search for optimal bounds in the general case. Central to our lower bound proofs is an extended notion of valency, the set of reachable limits of an asymptotic consensus algorithm starting from a given configuration. We further relate topological properties of valencies to the solvability of exact consensus, shedding some light on the relation of these three fundamental problems in dynamic networks

Distributed multi-agent Gaussian regression via finite-dimensional approximations

We consider the problem of distributedly estimating Gaussian processes in multi-agent frameworks. Each agent collects few measurements and aims to collaboratively reconstruct a common estimate based on all data. Agents are assumed with limited computational and communication capabilities and to gather $M$ noisy measurements in total on input locations independently drawn from a known common probability density. The optimal solution would require agents to exchange all the $M$ input locations and measurements and then invert an $M \times M$ matrix, a non-scalable task. Differently, we propose two suboptimal approaches using the first $E$ orthonormal eigenfunctions obtained from the \ac{KL} expansion of the chosen kernel, where typically $E \ll M$. The benefits are that the computation and communication complexities scale with $E$ and not with $M$, and computing the required statistics can be performed via standard average consensus algorithms. We obtain probabilistic non-asymptotic bounds that determine a priori the desired level of estimation accuracy, and new distributed strategies relying on Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) paradigms for tuning the regularization parameters and applicable to generic basis functions (thus not necessarily kernel eigenfunctions) and that can again be implemented via average consensus. The proposed estimators and bounds are finally tested on both synthetic and real field data