Monetary Policy in a Small Economy after Tsunami: A New Consensus on the Horizon?

The last financial crisis significantly changed views concerning the relationship between monetary policy, asset prices and financial stability. We survey the pre-crisis opinions on the appropriate monetary policy reactions to financial market developments and delineate the new consensus which is currently emerging from the lessons taken. The new consensus is an amended model of flexible inflation targeting in which the central bank “should sometimes lean and can clean”. We try to add the small open economy context to the debate and demonstrate that the optimal reactions of monetary policy-makers in small open economies may differ and that sometimes the optimal solution may not even be available due to the policies of the key world central banks acting as price makers. In such instances, second-best policies have to be considered.monetary policy, financial stability, asset markets, macroprudential policy

Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets and a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with bounded rationality via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that market sentiments exert important influence on the macroeconomy. They introduce high volatility into impulse-response functions of macroeconomic variables and thus make the effect of a given shock hard to predict. We also analyze the impact of different financial transaction taxes (FTT, FAT, progressive FAT) and find that such taxes can be used to stabilize the economy and raise funds from the financial sector as a contribution to the costs produced by the recent crisis. Our results suggest that the FTT leads to higher tax revenues and better stabilization results then the FAT. However, the FTT might also create huge distortion if set too high, a threat which the FAT does not imply. --Agent-based modeling,stock market,New Keynesian macroeconomics,financial transaction tax,financial activities tax

Averting HIV Infections in New York City: A Modeling Approach Estimating the Future Impact of Additional Behavioral and Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies

Background:New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically.Methods:A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC.Results:Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than $360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34$106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately$100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately$250 million per year, on average).Conclusions:Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs. © 2013 Kessler et al

Group-Oriented Values, Rules and Cooperation

collectivism, cooperation, economic development, game theory, individualism, institutions, conflicts

The Bedrock of Byzantine Fault Tolerance: A Unified Platform for BFT Protocol Design and Implementation

Byzantine Fault-Tolerant (BFT) protocols have recently been extensively used by decentralized data management systems with non-trustworthy infrastructures, e.g., permissioned blockchains. BFT protocols cover a broad spectrum of design dimensions from infrastructure settings such as the communication topology, to more technical features such as commitment strategy and even fundamental social choice properties like order-fairness. The proliferation of different BFT protocols has rendered it difficult to navigate the BFT landscape, let alone determine the protocol that best meets application needs. This paper presents Bedrock, a unified platform for BFT protocols design, analysis, implementation, and experiments. Bedrock proposes a design space consisting of a set of design choices capturing the trade-offs between different design space dimensions and providing fundamentally new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of BFT protocols. Bedrock enables users to analyze and experiment with BFT protocols within the space of plausible choices, evolve current protocols to design new ones, and even uncover previously unknown protocols. Our experimental results demonstrate the capability of Bedrock to uniformly evaluate BFT protocols in new ways that were not possible before due to the diverse assumptions made by these protocols. The results validate Bedrock's ability to analyze and derive BFT protocols

Social Preferences and the Third Sector: Looking for a Microeconomic Foundation of the Local Development Path

The aim of the paper is to endorse the principle, recurrent in non-profit literature, that the third sector is an institution that supports the development process of economic systems. The third sector is considered as an institution that âÃÂÃÂfavors, transmits and cementsâÃÂàthe role of social preferences in a given economy and, in this way, it contributes to development. The paper thus considers two stances taken up in economic theory: (i) the theory of social preferences; (ii) the modern theory of development. These two stances do not exclusively and specifically refer to the third sector, and they generally follow parallel paths, rarely being aware of each other: in the paper, the third sector is assumed to form a bridge between them in that social preferences are supposed to be one of the driving forces in the change process of an economy.endogenous social preferences; third sector; local development