Is this model reliable for everyone? Testing for strong calibration

In a well-calibrated risk prediction model, the average predicted probability is close to the true event rate for any given subgroup. Such models are reliable across heterogeneous populations and satisfy strong notions of algorithmic fairness. However, the task of auditing a model for strong calibration is well-known to be difficult -- particularly for machine learning (ML) algorithms -- due to the sheer number of potential subgroups. As such, common practice is to only assess calibration with respect to a few predefined subgroups. Recent developments in goodness-of-fit testing offer potential solutions but are not designed for settings with weak signal or where the poorly calibrated subgroup is small, as they either overly subdivide the data or fail to divide the data at all. We introduce a new testing procedure based on the following insight: if we can reorder observations by their expected residuals, there should be a change in the association between the predicted and observed residuals along this sequence if a poorly calibrated subgroup exists. This lets us reframe the problem of calibration testing into one of changepoint detection, for which powerful methods already exist. We begin with introducing a sample-splitting procedure where a portion of the data is used to train a suite of candidate models for predicting the residual, and the remaining data are used to perform a score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test. To further improve power, we then extend this adaptive CUSUM test to incorporate cross-validation, while maintaining Type I error control under minimal assumptions. Compared to existing methods, the proposed procedure consistently achieved higher power in simulation studies and more than doubled the power when auditing a mortality risk prediction model

Support and Care for the Mental Health of Collegiate Athletes

While college is often one of the best times of a person’s life, it is also often one of the most challenging. College students are under immense pressure to succeed in all of their activities while still doing well in their classes and graduating within four years. This especially holds true for collegiate athletes. Student-athletes are under constant pressure to succeed in both the classroom as well as the athletic field. Balancing these challenges can be overwhelming for athletes to handle. Stress from academics and the new social structure is tough but when athletics are added, sometimes it gets to be too much. Student-athletes are trained every day to improve their physical strength, but do they receive enough mental health coaching to improve their mental and emotional strength? This research paper delves into the importance of being able to recognize when a student is struggling and knowing how to handle the situation. Even though mental health is becoming a new topic of discussion, many people still treat it as a taboo that they do not want to talk about. However, mental health is something that everyone has. Not everyone has poor mental health and not everyone has good mental health, but everyone does have mental health so this is a topic that should concern everyone. The goal of this paper is to get people to recognize the importance of continuing to discuss these issues openly and to make sure that the people who surround our student-athletes are equipped to handle their unique mental health challenges

The Nature and Rationality of Faith

A popular objection to theistic commitment involves the idea that faith is irrational.  Specifically, some seem to put forth something like the following argument: (P1) Everyone (or almost everyone) who has faith is epistemically irrational, (P2) All theistic believers have faith, thus (C) All (or most) theistic believers are epistemically irrational.  In this paper, I argue that this line of reasoning fails. I do so by considering a number of candidates for what faith might be.  I argue that, for each candidate, either (P1) is false or (P2) is false.  Then, I make two positive suggestions for how faith can be epistemically rational but nonetheless have a unique relationship to evidence: one, that Jamesian self-justifying attitudes describe a distinctive kind of faith in oneself and others, and two, that faith is not solely based on empirical evidence

How to Write Mass Emails at Work That People Actually Like : What Yummy Spam Looks Like

This handout lists 11 (eleven) recommended steps to take when writing mass emails for work. Writing and sending out spam emails is a regular requirement of library work but not everyone knows how to do this while still looking professional. This short handout succinctly outlines the recommended steps from someone who regularly sends out mass emails for work

Information Cascades on Arbitrary Topologies

In this paper, we study information cascades on graphs. In this setting, each node in the graph represents a person. One after another, each person has to take a decision based on a private signal as well as the decisions made by earlier neighboring nodes. Such information cascades commonly occur in practice and have been studied in complete graphs where everyone can overhear the decisions of every other player. It is known that information cascades can be fragile and based on very little information, and that they have a high likelihood of being wrong. Generalizing the problem to arbitrary graphs reveals interesting insights. In particular, we show that in a random graph $G(n,q)$, for the right value of $q$, the number of nodes making a wrong decision is logarithmic in $n$. That is, in the limit for large $n$, the fraction of players that make a wrong decision tends to zero. This is intriguing because it contrasts to the two natural corner cases: empty graph (everyone decides independently based on his private signal) and complete graph (all decisions are heard by all nodes). In both of these cases a constant fraction of nodes make a wrong decision in expectation. Thus, our result shows that while both too little and too much information sharing causes nodes to take wrong decisions, for exactly the right amount of information sharing, asymptotically everyone can be right. We further show that this result in random graphs is asymptotically optimal for any topology, even if nodes follow a globally optimal algorithmic strategy. Based on the analysis of random graphs, we explore how topology impacts global performance and construct an optimal deterministic topology among layer graphs

Green Jobs: A Resources Guide for Individuals with Disabilities

Everyone is talking about "green jobs". But finding out what a green job really is, what training and education is required, and how to access these jobs can be a difficult task, especially for indivduals who have a disability. This guide is designed to direct people with disabilities and their advocates to the information and resources they need to begin an effective job search for green occupations

Barriers to Mammograms Among Women Who are Homeless

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify barriers to mammogram screening among women who are homeless. Knowing the barriers to mammogram screening will be useful to advanced practice nurses for it provides insight to understanding the perceived susceptibility, benefits, and barriers of women potentially amendable to intervention. Data sources: A descriptive survey was used with a convenience sample of 41 women who were homeless, between the ages of 20-70 years, and agreed to participate in this study. The research was conducted at two homeless shelters in an urban county in Northern California. Findings: Findings reflected positive perceptions recognizing the benefits of mammogram screenings, and minimal concern about potential negative aspects of having mammogram screenings. Additional data indicated that the sample believed they were less likely to get breast cancer during their life. The majority had no fmancial resources for a mammogram and did not know how to obtain a mammogram. However, if a free mammogram was available, 95% responded that they would take advantage of this essential screening test. Conclusions: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of death for all racial and ethnic populations in the United States. Since 1991, the National Health Care for the Homeless Council has integrated a human rights viewpoint to assure healthcare for everyone (National Health Care for the Homeless Council, 2006). Therefore, it is up to the community and healthcare providers to make sure that everyone, including women who are homeless, have access to mammography screening by eliminating barriers that prevent access. Implication for practice: Advanced practice clinicians, with their vast knowledge of community resources, must advocate for everyone, including women who are homeless, to promote access to mammography screening. The goal is to eliminate barriers that prevent this population from having a valuable screening procedure

Workbridge at Work, Working with Employers

[Excerpt] Including disabled people in the workforce has positive benefits for everyone. It is rare that a significant economic benefit can also be gained whilst addressing a human rights issue. However, this is exactly what happens for employers when they employ a disabled person. This edition of Workbridge at Work presents the benefits of employing disabled people, by providing ‘real life’ success stories from both the employer and employee perspectives