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A qualitative logic of decision
An important aspect of intelligent behavior is the ability to reason, make decisions, and act in spite of uncertainty. This paper presents a qualitative logic of decision that supports decision-making under uncertainty. To be specific, the paper presents a knowledge representation language based upon subjective Bayesian decision theory that aims to capture some aspects of common-sense reasoning associated with making decisions about actions. The language addresses the problem of describing justifications of rational choices in situations where the alternatives involve trading off potential losses and gains. The logic and an associated qualitative arithmetic are implemented in an efficient PROLOG program. Examples illustrate their use in several concrete decision-making situations
Internet of robotic things : converging sensing/actuating, hypoconnectivity, artificial intelligence and IoT Platforms
The Internet of Things (IoT) concept is evolving rapidly and influencing newdevelopments in various application domains, such as the Internet of MobileThings (IoMT), Autonomous Internet of Things (A-IoT), Autonomous Systemof Things (ASoT), Internet of Autonomous Things (IoAT), Internetof Things Clouds (IoT-C) and the Internet of Robotic Things (IoRT) etc.that are progressing/advancing by using IoT technology. The IoT influencerepresents new development and deployment challenges in different areassuch as seamless platform integration, context based cognitive network integration,new mobile sensor/actuator network paradigms, things identification(addressing, naming in IoT) and dynamic things discoverability and manyothers. The IoRT represents new convergence challenges and their need to be addressed, in one side the programmability and the communication ofmultiple heterogeneous mobile/autonomous/robotic things for cooperating,their coordination, configuration, exchange of information, security, safetyand protection. Developments in IoT heterogeneous parallel processing/communication and dynamic systems based on parallelism and concurrencyrequire new ideas for integrating the intelligent “devices”, collaborativerobots (COBOTS), into IoT applications. Dynamic maintainability, selfhealing,self-repair of resources, changing resource state, (re-) configurationand context based IoT systems for service implementation and integrationwith IoT network service composition are of paramount importance whennew “cognitive devices” are becoming active participants in IoT applications.This chapter aims to be an overview of the IoRT concept, technologies,architectures and applications and to provide a comprehensive coverage offuture challenges, developments and applications
Explaining and Refining Decision-Theoretic Choices
As the need to make complex choices among competing alternative actions is ubiquitous, the reasoning machinery of many intelligent systems will include an explicit model for making choices. Decision analysis is particularly useful for modelling such choices, and its potential use in intelligent systems motivates the construction of facilities for automatically explaining decision-theoretic choices and for helping users to incrementally refine the knowledge underlying them. The proposed thesis addresses the problem of providing such facilities. Specifically, we propose the construction of a domain-independent facility called UTIL, for explaining and refining a restricted but widely applicable decision-theoretic model called the additive multi-attribute value model. In this proposal we motivate the task, address the related issues, and present preliminary solutions in the context of examples from the domain of intelligent process control
Biomedical applications of belief networks
Biomedicine is an area in which computers have long been expected to play a significant
role. Although many of the early claims have proved unrealistic, computers are gradually
becoming accepted in the biomedical, clinical and research environment. Within these
application areas, expert systems appear to have met with the most resistance, especially
when applied to image interpretation.In order to improve the acceptance of computerised decision support systems it is
necessary to provide the information needed to make rational judgements concerning
the inferences the system has made. This entails an explanation of what inferences
were made, how the inferences were made and how the results of the inference are to
be interpreted. Furthermore there must be a consistent approach to the combining of
information from low level computational processes through to high level expert analyses.nformation from low level computational processes through to high level expert analyses.
Until recently ad hoc formalisms were seen as the only tractable approach to reasoning
under uncertainty. A review of some of these formalisms suggests that they are less
than ideal for the purposes of decision making. Belief networks provide a tractable way
of utilising probability theory as an inference formalism by combining the theoretical
consistency of probability for inference and decision making, with the ability to use the
knowledge of domain experts.nowledge of domain experts.
The potential of belief networks in biomedical applications has already been recog¬
nised and there has been substantial research into the use of belief networks for medical
diagnosis and methods for handling large, interconnected networks. In this thesis the use
of belief networks is extended to include detailed image model matching to show how,
in principle, feature measurement can be undertaken in a fully probabilistic way. The
belief networks employed are usually cyclic and have strong influences between adjacent
nodes, so new techniques for probabilistic updating based on a model of the matching
process have been developed.An object-orientated inference shell called FLAPNet has been implemented and used
to apply the belief network formalism to two application domains. The first application is
model-based matching in fetal ultrasound images. The imaging modality and biological
variation in the subject make model matching a highly uncertain process. A dynamic,
deformable model, similar to active contour models, is used. A belief network combines
constraints derived from local evidence in the image, with global constraints derived from
trained models, to control the iterative refinement of an initial model cue.In the second application a belief network is used for the incremental aggregation of
evidence occurring during the classification of objects on a cervical smear slide as part of
an automated pre-screening system. A belief network provides both an explicit domain
model and a mechanism for the incremental aggregation of evidence, two attributes
important in pre-screening systems.Overall it is argued that belief networks combine the necessary quantitative features
required of a decision support system with desirable qualitative features that will lead
to improved acceptability of expert systems in the biomedical domain
When to Initiate, When to Switch, and How to Sequence HIV Therapies: A Markov Decision Process Approach
HIV and AIDS are major health care problems throughout the world,with 40 million people living with HIV by the end of 2005. Inthat year alone, 5 million people acquired HIV, and 3 millionpeople died of AIDS. For many patients, advances in therapies overthe past ten years have changed HIV from a fatal disease to achronic, yet manageable condition. The purpose of thisdissertation is to address the challenge of effectively managingHIV therapies, with a goal of maximizing a patient's totalexpected lifetime or quality-adjusted lifetime.Perhaps the most important issue in HIV care is when a patientshould initiate therapy. Benefits of delaying therapy includeavoiding the negative side effects and toxicities associated withthe drugs, delaying selective pressures that induce thedevelopment of resistant strains of the virus, and preserving alimited number of treatment options. On the other hand, the risksof delayed therapy include the possibility of irreversible damageto the immune system, development of AIDS-related complications,and death. We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model thatexamines this question, and we solve it using clinical data.Because of the development of resistance to administered therapiesover time, an extension to the initiation question arises: whenshould a patient switch therapies? Also, inherent in both theinitiation and switching questions is the question of whichtherapy to use each time. We develop MDP models that consider theswitching and sequencing problems, and we discuss the challengesinvolved in solving these models
Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management
When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and
symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether
additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis, whether therapeutic action is necessary,
and which post-therapeutic trajectory is to be followed. All these bedside decisions are related to each other,
and the whole task of clinical patient management can therefore be regarded as a form a planning. In Artificial
Intelligence, planning is traditionally studied for situations that are highly predictable. An important characteristic
of medical decisions is however that they often must be made under conditions of uncertainty; this is due to
errors in the results of diagnostic tests, limitations in medical knowledge, and unpredictability of the future course
of disease. Decision making under uncertainty is traditionally studied in the field decision theory; in this thesis, we
investigate the problem of clinical patient management as action planning using decision-theoretic principles, or
decision-theoretic planning for short
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