AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments

This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching, clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques, covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches, but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives. The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives, i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation, often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation are more readily facilitated

Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Embedding Stacked Polytopes on a Polynomial-Size Grid

A stacking operation adds a $d$-simplex on top of a facet of a simplicial $d$-polytope while maintaining the convexity of the polytope. A stacked $d$-polytope is a polytope that is obtained from a $d$-simplex and a series of stacking operations. We show that for a fixed $d$ every stacked $d$-polytope with $n$ vertices can be realized with nonnegative integer coordinates. The coordinates are bounded by $O(n^{2\log(2d)})$, except for one axis, where the coordinates are bounded by $O(n^{3\log(2d)})$. The described realization can be computed with an easy algorithm. The realization of the polytopes is obtained with a lifting technique which produces an embedding on a large grid. We establish a rounding scheme that places the vertices on a sparser grid, while maintaining the convexity of the embedding.Comment: 22 pages, 10 Figure

The (mis)use of graphs insights into the portuguese companies´ annual reports

Graphs area suitable format for summarizing and disclosinginformation in annual reports given thatinvestors,and other addressees of graphs, may lack of the time required to fully analysethe information. Therefore, graphs should be reliable,accurateand free from material distortions. This Work Project aims to make aware of the importance that graphs have both for the report’s usersand the companies themselves. Moreover, this project investigates the potential roots of graphical distortions. The findings suggestthatthe correlation between the level of graph distortion in Portugal and the Board of Directors ismoderate, although not significant