29,704 research outputs found
Probabilistic Inference from Arbitrary Uncertainty using Mixtures of Factorized Generalized Gaussians
This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic
inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the
calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and
factorization. Both the joint probability density of the variables and the
likelihood function of the (objective or subjective) observation are
approximated by a special mixture model, in such a way that any desired
conditional distribution can be directly obtained without numerical
integration. We have developed an extended version of the expectation
maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of mixture models from
uncertain training examples (indirect observations). As a consequence, any
piece of exact or uncertain information about both input and output values is
consistently handled in the inference and learning stages. This ability,
extremely useful in certain situations, is not found in most alternative
methods. The proposed framework is formally justified from standard
probabilistic principles and illustrative examples are provided in the fields
of nonparametric pattern classification, nonlinear regression and pattern
completion. Finally, experiments on a real application and comparative results
over standard databases provide empirical evidence of the utility of the method
in a wide range of applications
Correlation, hierarchies, and networks in financial markets
We discuss some methods to quantitatively investigate the properties of
correlation matrices. Correlation matrices play an important role in portfolio
optimization and in several other quantitative descriptions of asset price
dynamics in financial markets. Specifically, we discuss how to define and
obtain hierarchical trees, correlation based trees and networks from a
correlation matrix. The hierarchical clustering and other procedures performed
on the correlation matrix to detect statistically reliable aspects of the
correlation matrix are seen as filtering procedures of the correlation matrix.
We also discuss a method to associate a hierarchically nested factor model to a
hierarchical tree obtained from a correlation matrix. The information retained
in filtering procedures and its stability with respect to statistical
fluctuations is quantified by using the Kullback-Leibler distance.Comment: 37 pages, 9 figures, 3 table
Probabilistic Constraint Logic Programming
This paper addresses two central problems for probabilistic processing
models: parameter estimation from incomplete data and efficient retrieval of
most probable analyses. These questions have been answered satisfactorily only
for probabilistic regular and context-free models. We address these problems
for a more expressive probabilistic constraint logic programming model. We
present a log-linear probability model for probabilistic constraint logic
programming. On top of this model we define an algorithm to estimate the
parameters and to select the properties of log-linear models from incomplete
data. This algorithm is an extension of the improved iterative scaling
algorithm of Della-Pietra, Della-Pietra, and Lafferty (1995). Our algorithm
applies to log-linear models in general and is accompanied with suitable
approximation methods when applied to large data spaces. Furthermore, we
present an approach for searching for most probable analyses of the
probabilistic constraint logic programming model. This method can be applied to
the ambiguity resolution problem in natural language processing applications.Comment: 35 pages, uses sfbart.cl
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