2,938 research outputs found

    Integrating expert-based objectivist and nonexpert-based subjectivist paradigms in landscape assessment

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    This thesis explores the integration of objective and subjective measures of landscape aesthetics, particularly focusing on crowdsourced geo-information. It addresses the increasing importance of considering public perceptions in national landscape governance, in line with the European Landscape Convention's emphasis on public involvement. Despite this, national landscape assessments often remain expert-centric and top-down, facing challenges in resource constraints and limited public engagement. The thesis leverages Web 2.0 technologies and crowdsourced geographic information, examining correlations between expert-based metrics of landscape quality and public perceptions. The Scenic-Or-Not initiative for Great Britain, GIS-based Wildness spatial layers, and LANDMAP dataset for Wales serve as key datasets for analysis. The research investigates the relationships between objective measures of landscape wildness quality and subjective measures of aesthetics. Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) reveals significant correlations, with different wildness components exhibiting varying degrees of association. The study suggests the feasibility of incorporating wildness and scenicness measures into formal landscape aesthetic assessments. Comparing expert and public perceptions, the research identifies preferences for water-related landforms and variations in upland and lowland typologies. The study emphasizes the agreement between experts and non-experts on extreme scenic perceptions but notes discrepancies in mid-spectrum landscapes. To overcome limitations in systematic landscape evaluations, an integrative approach is proposed. Utilizing XGBoost models, the research predicts spatial patterns of landscape aesthetics across Great Britain, based on the Scenic-Or-Not initiatives, Wildness spatial layers, and LANDMAP data. The models achieve comparable accuracy to traditional statistical models, offering insights for Landscape Character Assessment practices and policy decisions. While acknowledging data limitations and biases in crowdsourcing, the thesis discusses the necessity of an aggregation strategy to manage computational challenges. Methodological considerations include addressing the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) associated with aggregating point-based observations. The thesis comprises three studies published or submitted for publication, each contributing to the understanding of the relationship between objective and subjective measures of landscape aesthetics. The concluding chapter discusses the limitations of data and methods, providing a comprehensive overview of the research

    Essays on Panel Data Prediction Models

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    Forward-looking analysis is valuable for policymakers as they need eïŹ€ective strategies to mitigate imminent risks and potential challenges. Panel data sets contain time series information over a number of cross-sectional units and are known to have superior predictive abilities in comparison to time series only models. This PhD thesis develops novel panel data methods to contribute to the advancement of short-term forecasting and nowcasting of macroeconomic and environmental variables. The two most important highlights of this thesis are the use of cross-sectional dependence in panel data forecasting and to allow for timely predictions and ‘nowcasts’.Although panel data models have been found to provide better predictions in many empirical scenarios, forecasting applications so far have not included cross-sectional dependence. On the other hand, cross-sectional dependence is well-recognised in large panels and has been explicitly modelled in previous causal studies. A substantial portion of this thesis is devoted to developing cross-sectional dependence in panel models suited to diverse empirical scenarios. The second important aspect of this work is to integrate the asynchronous release schedules of data within and across panel units into the panel models. Most of the thesis emphasises the pseudo-real-time predictions with eïŹ€orts to estimate the model on the data that has been released at the time of predictions, thus trying to replicate the realistic circumstances of delayed data releases.Linear, quantile and non-linear panel models are developed to predict a range of targets both in terms of their meaning and method of measurement. Linear models include panel mixed-frequency vector-autoregression and bridge equation set-ups which predict GDP growth, inïŹ‚ation and CO2 emissions. Panel quantile regressions and latent variable discrete choice models predict growth-at-risk and extreme episodes of cross-border capital ïŹ‚ows, respectively. The datasets include both international cross-country panels as well as regional subnational panels. Depending on the nature of the model and the prediction targets, diïŹ€erent precision criteria evaluate the accuracy of the models in out-of-sample settings. The generated predictions beat respective standard benchmarks in a more timely fashion

    Natural and Technological Hazards in Urban Areas

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    Natural hazard events and technological accidents are separate causes of environmental impacts. Natural hazards are physical phenomena active in geological times, whereas technological hazards result from actions or facilities created by humans. In our time, combined natural and man-made hazards have been induced. Overpopulation and urban development in areas prone to natural hazards increase the impact of natural disasters worldwide. Additionally, urban areas are frequently characterized by intense industrial activity and rapid, poorly planned growth that threatens the environment and degrades the quality of life. Therefore, proper urban planning is crucial to minimize fatalities and reduce the environmental and economic impacts that accompany both natural and technological hazardous events

    2023-2024 Catalog

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    The 2023-2024 Governors State University Undergraduate and Graduate Catalog is a comprehensive listing of current information regarding:Degree RequirementsCourse OfferingsUndergraduate and Graduate Rules and Regulation

    Pairwise versus mutual independence: visualisation, actuarial applications and central limit theorems

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    Accurately capturing the dependence between risks, if it exists, is an increasingly relevant topic of actuarial research. In recent years, several authors have started to relax the traditional 'independence assumption', in a variety of actuarial settings. While it is known that 'mutual independence' between random variables is not equivalent to their 'pairwise independence', this thesis aims to provide a better understanding of the materiality of this difference. The distinction between mutual and pairwise independence matters because, in practice, dependence is often assessed via pairs only, e.g., through correlation matrices, rank-based measures of association, scatterplot matrices, heat-maps, etc. Using such pairwise methods, it is possible to miss some forms of dependence. In this thesis, we explore how material the difference between pairwise and mutual independence is, and from several angles. We provide relevant background and motivation for this thesis in Chapter 1, then conduct a literature review in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we focus on visualising the difference between pairwise and mutual independence. To do so, we propose a series of theoretical examples (some of them new) where random variables are pairwise independent but (mutually) dependent, in short, PIBD. We then develop new visualisation tools and use them to illustrate what PIBD variables can look like. We showcase that the dependence involved is possibly very strong. We also use our visualisation tools to identify subtle forms of dependence, which would otherwise be hard to detect. In Chapter 4, we review common dependence models (such has elliptical distributions and Archimedean copulas) used in actuarial science and show that they do not allow for the possibility of PIBD data. We also investigate concrete consequences of the 'nonequivalence' between pairwise and mutual independence. We establish that many results which hold for mutually independent variables do not hold under sole pairwise independent. Those include results about finite sums of random variables, extreme value theory and bootstrap methods. This part thus illustrates what can potentially 'go wrong' if one assumes mutual independence where only pairwise independence holds. Lastly, in Chapters 5 and 6, we investigate the question of what happens for PIBD variables 'in the limit', i.e., when the sample size goes to infi nity. We want to see if the 'problems' caused by dependence vanish for sufficiently large samples. This is a broad question, and we concentrate on the important classical Central Limit Theorem (CLT), for which we fi nd that the answer is largely negative. In particular, we construct new sequences of PIBD variables (with arbitrary margins) for which a CLT does not hold. We derive explicitly the asymptotic distribution of the standardised mean of our sequences, which allows us to illustrate the extent of the 'failure' of a CLT for PIBD variables. We also propose a general methodology to construct dependent K-tuplewise independent (K an arbitrary integer) sequences of random variables with arbitrary margins. In the case K = 3, we use this methodology to derive explicit examples of triplewise independent sequences for which no CLT hold. Those results illustrate that mutual independence is a crucial assumption within CLTs, and that having larger samples is not always a viable solution to the problem of non-independent data

    Evacuação de Edifícios – Caso de estudo de um edifício escolar

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    O objetivo deste trabalho Ă© o levantamento dos aspetos que influenciam o tempo de evacuação num edifĂ­cio escolar, desde o comportamento humano Ă s caraterĂ­sticas fĂ­sicas do edifĂ­cio e Ă s metodologias possĂ­veis de adotar para a gestĂŁo da emergĂȘncia, com vista a calcular o tempo necessĂĄrio e disponĂ­vel para a evacuação do referido edifĂ­cio. A evacuação de edifĂ­cios em situação de incĂȘndio tem como propĂłsito a proteção da vida humana que Ă© inseparĂĄvel das condiçÔes de emergĂȘncia as quais sĂŁo afetadas por fatores de difĂ­cil determinação e que necessitam de ser definidos para estimar o tempo e as condiçÔes de evacuação.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    2017 GREAT Day Program

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    SUNY Geneseo’s Eleventh Annual GREAT Day.https://knightscholar.geneseo.edu/program-2007/1011/thumbnail.jp

    Geoarchaeological Investigations of Late Pleistocene Physical Environments and Impacts of Prehistoric Foragers on the Ecosystem in Northern Malawi and Austria

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    A growing body of research shows that not only did environmental changes play an important role in human evolution, but humans in turn have impacted ecosystems and landscape evolution since the Late Pleistocene. This thesis presents collaborative work on Late Pleistocene open-air sites in the Karonga District of northern Malawi, in which new aspects of forager behavior came to light through the reconstruction of physical environments. My work has helped recognize that late Middle Stone Age (MSA) activity and tool production occurred in locally more open riparian environments within evergreen gallery forest, surrounded by a regional vegetation dominated by miombo woodlands and savanna. Additionally, MSA hunter-gatherers exploited the confluence of river and wetland areas along the shores of Lake Malawi, which likely served as important corridors for the dispersal of biota. By comparing data from the archaeological investigations with lake core records, we were able to identify effects of anthropogenic burning on vegetation structures and sedimentation in the region as early as 80 thousand years ago. These findings not only proved it possible to uncover early impacts of human activity on the ecosystem, but also emphasize the importance of fire in the lives of early foragers. Publications contained within this dissertation: A. Wright, D.K., Thompson, J.C., Schilt, F.C., Cohen, A., Choi, J-H., Mercader, J., Nightingale, S., Miller, C.E., Mentzer, S.M., Walde, D., Welling, M., and Gomani-Chindebvu, E. “Approaches to Middle Stone Age landscape archaeology in tropical Africa”. Special issue Geoarchaeology of the Tropics of Journal of Archaeological Science 77:64-77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2016.01.014 B. Schilt, F.C., Verpoorte, A., Antl, W. “Micromorphology of an Upper Paleolithic cultural layer at Grub-Kranawetberg, Austria”. Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports 14:152-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jasrep.2017.05.041 C. Nightingale, S., Schilt, F.C., Thompson, J.C., Wright, D.K., Forman, S., Mercader, J., Moss, P., Clarke, S. Itambu, M., Gomani-Chindebvu, E., Welling, M. Late Middle Stone Age Behavior and Environments at Chaminade I (Karonga, Malawi). Journal of Paleolithic Archaeology 2-3:258-397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41982-019-00035-3 D. Thompson, J.C.*, Wright, D.K.*, Ivory, S.J.*, Choi, J-H., Nightingale, S., Mackay, A., Schilt, F.C., Otárola-Castillo, E., Mercader, J., Forman, S.L., Pietsch, T., Cohen, A.S., Arrowsmith, J.R., Welling, M., Davis, J., Schiery, B., Kaliba, P., Malijani, O., Blome, M.W., O’Driscoll, C., Mentzer, S.M., Miller, C., Heo, S., Choi, J., Tembo, J., Mapemba, F., Simengwa, D., and Gomani-Chindebvu, E. “Early human impacts and ecosystem reorganization in southern-central Africa”. Science Advances 7(19): eabf9776. *equal contribution https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9776 E. Schilt, F.C., Miller, C.M., Wright, D.K., Mentzer, S.M., Mercader, J., Moss, Choi, J.-H., Siljedal, G., Clarke, S., Mwambwiga, A., Thomas, K., Barbieri, A., Kaliba, P., Gomani-Chindebvu, E., Thompson, J.C. “Hunter-gatherer environments at the Late Pleistocene sites of Bruce and Mwanganda®s Village, northern Malawi”. Quaternary Science Reviews 292: 107638. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379122002694 [untranslated
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