Simulating the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in Northwestern Yunnan, China

Prefecture in 2000, land use/cover has undergone dramatic changes. This study used the CLUE-S model to simulate land use change in 2030, and explored the spatial pattern and relationship of different ecosystem services under the four scenarios of GFGP. The results show that, GFGP can help to improve indirect services of ecosystems, such as carbon storage and soil conservation. However, direct services of the ecosystem will decline, such as food production and water yield. Compared with 2010, the overall supply level of the four ecosystem services is the most balanced in the moderate GFGP scenario. In this scenario, total food production decreased by 179,000 tons and water yield decreased by 57 million cubic meters. Carbon storage and soil conservation continued to grow, increasing by 21.86 million tons and 17.87 million tons, respectively. The changes of ecosystem services in the strong GFGP scenario are extreme. The increases in carbon storage and soil conservation are at the expense of a significant reduction in food production and water yield. It can be concluded that GFGP may lead to intensifying ecosystem services trade-offs. Through comparing the changes of ecosystem services under different GFGP scenarios, it is found that the implementation intensity of GFGP should be deeply concerned in policy making

Watershed Water Environment and Hydrology under the Influence of Anthropogenic and Natural Processes

The major aims of this book, “Watershed Water Environment and Hydrology under the Influence of Anthropogenic and Natural Processes”, are to focus on innovative/new ideas on the watershed water environment from different perspectives across the field; distinguish the evolution of watershed water ecological and environmental quality; clarify the biogeochemical cycling of elements or pollutants; identify and quantify the sources of pollutants; and assess the ecological risk and human health risk of pollutants in the water environment at different watershed scales. In particular, eight peer-reviewed articles were collected, mainly reporting the hydrochemistry-based watershed weathering processes and their environmental implications, trace elements and their risks, and the nutrients cycle in river–reservoir systems. Overall, these papers contribute to several aspects of the watershed water environment and are valuable for river water resource protection and management

Impact assessment of Corridor Oriented development A case of urban agglomerations of India

Rapid urbanisation has been a factor affecting cities negatively and irreversibly in developing countries like India, adversely leading to depleting natural resources and promoting unbalanced and uneven urbanism. To handle the influx of population into core urban regions and to promote holistic, sustainable development, government and planning agencies are now looking upon regional development. Developing countries like India has laid plans for future urban corridor-oriented development. This study aims to understand the urban growth of two major developing cities influenced by transport corridor through a methodological approach using multi-temporal satellite data and its position in India\u27s network of cities. Land use analysis was validated with the aid of measures such as overall accuracy and kappa statistics, with good values of more than 85% and 0.75 respectively were achieved. The hierarchical network analysis indicated five different clusters based on the urban growth rate. Among these clusters, Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Pune cluster was further shortlisted for analysis based on the urban transport corridor affecting the growth of these cities. Cellular automata-based SLEUTH model was adopted in this work to carefully observe sub-division level details of the region under the influence of the corridor. Exhaustive calibration, with three phases of coarse, fine and final, validation procedure along with statistical fit measures reveal urban expansion for Ahmedabad region has witnessed an increase from 497.50 km2 (2017) to 826.24 km2 (2025) while Pune region has experienced tremendous urban area transformation of 901.11 km2 in the year 2025 against 497.27 km2 in 2017. Results of this analysis would help policymakers and planners to inculcate decisions concerning future urban trends accommodating safer, healthier, sustainable and liveable urban ecosystem

Geospatial approach using socio-economic and projected climate change information formodelling urban growth

Urban growth and climate change are two interwoven phenomena that are becoming global environmental issues. Using Niger Delta of Nigeria as a case study, this research investigated the historical and future patterns of urban growth using geospatialbased modelling approach. Specific objectives were to: (i) examine the climate change pattern and predict its impact on urban growth modelling; (ii) investigate the historical pattern of urban growth; (iii) embrace some selected parameters from United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) and examine their impacts on future urban growth prediction; (iv) verify whether planning has controlled urban land use sprawl in the study area; and (v) propose standard operating procedure for urban sprawl in the area. A MAGICC model, developed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was used to predict future precipitation under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, which was utilized to evaluate the impact of climate change on the study area from 2016 to 2100. Observed precipitation records from 1972 to 2015 were analysed, and 2012 was selected as a water year, based on depth and frequency of rainfall. A relationship model derived using logistic regression from the observed precipitation and river width from Landsat imageries of 2012 was used to project the monthly river width variations over the projected climate change, considering the two emission scenarios. The areas that are prone to flooding were determined based on the projected precipitation anomalies and a suitability map was developed to accommodate the impact of climate change in the projection of future urban growth. Urban landscape changes between 1985 and 2015 were also analysed, which revealed a rapid urban growth in the region. A Cellular Automata/Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model was used to project the year 2030 land cover of the region considering two scenarios; normal projection without any constraint, and using some designed constraints (forest reserves, population and economy) based on some selected UN SDGs criteria and climate change. On validation, overall simulation accuracies of 89.25% and 91.22% were achieved based on scenarios one and two, respectively. The projection using the first scenario resulted to net loss and gains of - 7.37%, 11.84% and 50.88%, while that of second scenario produced net loss and gains of -4.72%, 7.43% and 48.37% in forest, farmland and built-up area between 2015 and 2030, respectively. The difference between the two scenarios showed that the UN SDGs have great influence on the urban growth prediction and strict adherence to the selected UN SDGs criteria can reduce tropical deforestation, and at the same time serve as resilience to climate change in the region

Agricultural Trajectories in Yunnan, Southwest China: a comparative analysis of archaeobotanical remains from the Neolithic to the Bronze Age

This dissertation investigates the emergence and development of agricultural practices in the southwest Chinese province of Yunnan, between the 3rd and 1st millennia BC. Drawing from previously unstudied archaeobotanical remains from the sites of Baiyangcun, Haimenkou, and Dayingzhuang; this research analyses compositional and chronological changes in the crop assemblage from each site. These sites are located in the strategic region of sanjiang, at the crossroads of three main Asian rivers: Yangzi, Mekong, and Salween. Local and regional developments of agricultural systems are explored through the comparison of these new material with other published datasets from Yunnan, the surrounding provinces of Sichuan, Tibet, Chongqing, Guangxi, and mainland Southeast Asian countries. The main research questions addressed in this dissertation are: -What was the basis of early agriculture in Yunnan? -Given that the first attested agricultural systems in Southwest China appear 3000 to 2000-years later than those associated with domestication centres in North China and along the Yangzi River, to what extent can agricultural practices in Yunnan be derived entirely from migrating farmers, or did adoption (acculturation) by local forager populations play a role? -What role did native wild plants play in Yunnan Neolithic and Post-Neolithic subsistence, and were there any local processes of domestication underway? -With regards to rice, what was the ecology of rice cultivation? Did this differ either from source regions along the Yangzi, or from the early systems in Southeast Asia, which have sometimes been suggested to have origins in Yunnan? The results contained in this thesis provide archaeological evidence that was until now lacking to evaluate the validity of the language/farming dispersal hypothesis in the context of the Austroasiatic languages dispersal, as well as laying an important archaeological and chronological framework for studying of the emergence of a settled agricultural lifestyle in Yunnan

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationDuring the 21st century global change and deforestation have increased fires in the Amazon. Protection of rainforests and sustainable land-use practices in the Neotropics are critical for preserving biodiversity and buffering for climate. To make informed policy decisions it is necessary to understand how natural and anthropogenic disturbance shaped modern Neotropical ecosystems. Long-term paleoecological records can aid in understanding the susceptibility and resiliency of Amazonia ecosystems to modern disturbance. The purpose of this research is to reconstruct fire, vegetation, and soil geochemistry histories from Neotropical ecosystems to advance the understanding of long-term ecological variability on subcentennial to multimillennial temporal scales and local-to-regional spatial scales. Three primary research aims are addressed: (1) provide subcentennial resolution of ecological change and natural disturbances at control sites in savanna and rainforests ecosystems, (2) evaluate the climate-fire relationship on local-to-regional scales, and (3) synthesize existing pollen data from the Amazon basin to identify potential ecosystem thresholds in the past. Results from this study indicate edaphic/climatic controls drove cerrdo savanna fire and vegetation histories for the past 15,000 years, fire activity exhibited similar patterns on local and regional scale, and regional scale vegetation change was associated with periods of increased climatic variability since the last Glacial period, the last 21,000 years. The combined pressures of climate and human activities over the past 1,500 years have resulted in the highest levels of regional vegetation change. Increased ecosystem variability, a result of both human and natural drivers, in recent times suggests greater ecological instability and lowered buffering capacity of tropical ecosystem. These data can inform adaptive management policy to preserve diversity across a range of ecosystems in the Neotropical South America

Proceedings Of The 18th Annual Meeting Of The Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (Aogs 2021)

The 18th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS 2021) was held from 1st to 6th August 2021. This proceedings volume includes selected extended abstracts from a challenging array of presentations at this conference. The AOGS Annual Meeting is a leading venue for professional interaction among researchers and practitioners, covering diverse disciplines of geosciences

Late Quaternary ecosystem and climate interactions in SW Balkans inferred from Lake Prespa sediments

The transboundary Lake Prespa and its watershed enclose a remarkable biodiversity that is protected by several national and international treaties. Situated at 849 m a.s.l., the area is characterized by a transitional climate and the closed nature of the basin controls Lake Prespa’s modern hydrology. An 18 m-long sediment sequence was retrieved from a distal location, away from stream inflow, where preliminary hydroacoustic investigations suggested undisturbed sedimentation. Consequently, the sediments were dated and analyzed using palynological, sedimentological and geochemical techniques. The age model is based on AMS and ESR dating, tephrochronology and cross correlation with the Greenland ice record (NGRIP) and suggests an age of c. 92 ka cal BP for the base of the sequence. The pollen spectra allow for the zoning of the record in three major phases of vegetation development corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages 5 to 1. The forested phases of MIS 5 and MIS 1 are dominated by thermophilous and drought-sensitive trees (e.g. Quercus, Carpinus, Fagus) suggesting higher temperatures and moisture availability during their growing season. Increased lake productivity, hypolimnion anoxia and calcite precipitation are recorded in these intervals. Continuous presence of Mediterranean frost-sensitive species (e.g. Pistacia, Phillyrea) during the Holocene implies rising temperatures in late winter and spring. Sporadic occurrence of maquis pollen in MIS 5 suggest that temperature was probably limiting their expansion. Increasing fuel availability and summer aridity most likely account for a higher microscopic charred particle concentration during the Holocene (in particular after c. 5.5 ka). However, intensifying anthropogenic activity has probably overridden climate forcing over the last c. 2 ka. Within MIS 5 and MIS 1, brief periods (centennial to millennial) of open landscape are also documented and are ascribed to colder and drier climate conditions persisting at Prespa. During MIS 3, the relatively open landscape is characterized by several deciduous trees besides Pinus. An open steppe landscape with scattered tree stands comprising mostly Pinus prevailed in MIS 4 and MIS 2. High Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae abundances point to rather cold and arid conditions at Prespa. This appears to be in agreement with low lake productivity, enhanced mixing and increased ice-cover documented for this time. However, occurrences of deciduous tree pollen throughout the Last Glacial provide evidence for the survival of several tree species in sheltered locations at Prespa or its vicinity. This study underscores the sensitivity of the Lake Prespa region to climate forcing over the Last Glacial and the Holocene. The vegetation history of the region was examined focusing on ecological processes such as immigration, competition, succession, population growth and stability. Ongoing investigations may offer further insights into the paleoenvironment and paleoclimate at Prespa. The Prespa pollen underline the potential of the region to serve as refugium over longer time scales. In spite of systematic conservation efforts over the last decades, the question of whether Prespa’s ecosystems will withstand increasing anthropogenic pressures remains open

Modelling basin-scale sediment dynamics in the Petit lac d'Annecy catchment, France

This research describes the testing, development and application of an established hydro-geomorphic numerical model (CAESAR) over different time scales (170-2000 years) to simulate at hourly time resolution, the changes in the hydrological and sediment regime of the Petit lac d’Annecy catchment in response to changes in system drivers. Two thousand year long model runs in five different morphological settings were simulated, the results suggest that intrinsic system behaviour such as storage-release, hillslope-channel coupling and supply-capacity relationships may well exert larger controls on sediment discharge patterns over this timescale than climate or land use drivers. Hypothetical scenarios to investigate the geomorphic implications of a snow-free pre-alpine region over the last 2000 years show that there would be around 1.4 times more sediment discharge, with the annual hydrological regime radically altered with increased flooding throughout the year, particularly in winter months and a lack of a sustained discharge peak in the ‘melt’ months. This has implications for the projected environmental changes over the coming decades. The simulated effects of increased precipitation, reduced forest cover and snow-free conditions, in combination, point to increased amounts of coarse sediment discharge within the channels. Broad estimations show that a 20% reduction in forest cover or snow-free conditions can result in an additional 1m of sediment moving through the system and accumulating in the lake with potentially large impacts on flooding, in-channel fauna, benthic-dwelling lake fauna, aquatic macrophysics and water quality and water availability for storage and local power generation