Futures scenarios for last-mile logistics in mid-size European cities:ULaaDS D2.4: Futures scenarios based on a Disaggregative Policy Delphi

The number of last-mile deliveries is expected to grow by 78% worldwide by 2030 (World Economic Forum, 2020). This growth poses serious challenges to the last-mile sector with regard to logistics operations within dense urban areas, improving sustainability of the sector, and establishing cooperation between logistics stakeholders. In addressing these challenges scenarios are a powerful tool to inform future pathways as they aid last mile policy makers and other logistics stakeholders to rehearse the future.This study aims to identify plausible future states in last-mile logistics for mid-size European cities. It presents six scenarios for last-mile logistics in the year 2035 and identifies key themes policy makers should consider in addressing the uncertain future of last-mile logistics.The scenarios are developed using a Disaggregative Policy Delphi method. This method enables the identification of scenarios through a cluster analysis of quantitative and qualitative assessments of possible future developments in last mile city logistics by 26 participants in the expert panel. These expert are involved in last-mile logistics in the European cities Bremen, Groningen and Mechelen.Six scenarios have been identified:• Old Wild West - “No active government involvement and lack of incentives for innovation and cooperation.”• New Wild West - “Last-mile logistics is shaken up, with high levels of innovation but low regard for sustainability.”• New Cool Collective - “Shared beliefs and a shared course of action lead to sustainable last-mile logistics.”• Revolution By Design - “Sustainability in last-mile logistics is reached at the hand of local authorities.”• Thriving, Individually - “A mix of restrictive and facilitative policies spur technological innovation but result in limited cooperation between stakeholders.”• Good Intentions Abound - “High levels of government initiative amidst low stakeholder cooperation and low market innovation.”Comparing the scenarios results in three main overarching conclusions:1) Logistics remains an integral part of inner cities. Despite changes in where and how logistics are operated, last-mile logistics processes themselves will remain “a fact of city life”, omnipresent and closely interwoven with the urban.2) Local governments take a more active role in setting direction for last mile logistics development. Their role is considered essential in foster cooperation and sustainability with help of legal standards, access restrictions, facilitation of experiments and partnerships with private initiatives. Logistics operations are still mostly up to the market.3) A transition towards more sustainable city logistics is not a given. Substantial barriers are identified. Enabling pathways to sustainable last mile logistics requires a strong vision and policy implementation by local governments, societal pressure on reducing environmental impact and improving livability in order to foster cooperation between stakeholders, and the introduction of new technology and business models that embrace sustainability as their main principle

Multi-stakeholder collaboration in urban freight consolidation schemes: Drivers and barriers to implementation

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by VGTU Press. Due to the motivations of climate change, the health impacts of poor air quality, and the importance of cities for economic growth, transport policy at all levels of governance places emphasis on reducing and managing urban traffic and congestion. Whilst the majority of urban traffic is created by personal travel, freight vehicles make a relatively large contribution per vehicle to congestion, pollution and severe accidents. The European Commission (EC 2011) estimates that 6% of all EU transport carbon emissions are from urban freight. For these reasons, a well-structured portfolio of measures and policies oriented towards more sustainable and efficient management of supply chain activities carried out in urban areas is needed, in order to reduce negative externalities related to urban mobility and improve economic performance. In recent years, there has been enthusiasm amongst commentators that shared-resource economic models can both create new commercial opportunities and address policy problems, including in the transport sector. Within the city logistics subsector, this new model is exemplified by the emergence of Urban freight Consolidation Centres (UCCs). UCCs replace multiple ‘last-mile’ delivery movements, many of which involving small consignments, by a common receiving point (the consolidation centre), normally on the periphery of a city, with the final part of the delivery being shared by the consignments in a small freight vehicle. Such arrangements can represent a good compromise between the needs of city centre businesses and their customers on the one hand (i.e. high availability of a range of goods) and local and global sustainability objectives on the other. At the same time, by sharing logistics facilities and delivery vehicles, UCCs offer added-value services to both urban economic actors, such as retailers, and network logistics providers. However, UCCs add to the complexity of logistics chains, requiring additional contracts, communications and movement stages. These arrangements also introduce additional actors within the supply of delivery services, notably local authorities present as promoters and funders, rather than simply as regulators, companies specialised in the UCC operation, and companies, which provide specialist technologies, such as electric delivery vehicles. UCCs therefore also represent an example of multi-stakeholder collaboration. Drawing on the results of a 2013 survey in Bristol (United Kingdom) and a further survey carried out in 2015 in Cagliari (Italy), the present paper will provide an in-depth comparison of the differences in the perceptions of urban freight users and stakeholders towards UCCs. Retailers involved in the survey carried out in Bristol showed high satisfaction with the delivery service provided by the UCC. Different topic areas (e.g. timeliness, reliability, safety) are examined through analyses of both qualitative and quantitative data. The survey carried out in Cagliari investigated the inclination of potential users to join a UCC scheme. The comparison between the two cities considers factors such as the nature of business holding (e.g. SME versus multiple retailers), operational practices (e.g. pattern of deliveries) and operating subsector (e.g. food versus no food). An analysis on the barriers to the implementation of UCCs in Bristol and in Cagliari is provided at the end of the paper