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Supervised Classification: Quite a Brief Overview
The original problem of supervised classification considers the task of
automatically assigning objects to their respective classes on the basis of
numerical measurements derived from these objects. Classifiers are the tools
that implement the actual functional mapping from these measurements---also
called features or inputs---to the so-called class label---or output. The
fields of pattern recognition and machine learning study ways of constructing
such classifiers. The main idea behind supervised methods is that of learning
from examples: given a number of example input-output relations, to what extent
can the general mapping be learned that takes any new and unseen feature vector
to its correct class? This chapter provides a basic introduction to the
underlying ideas of how to come to a supervised classification problem. In
addition, it provides an overview of some specific classification techniques,
delves into the issues of object representation and classifier evaluation, and
(very) briefly covers some variations on the basic supervised classification
task that may also be of interest to the practitioner
A critical assessment of imbalanced class distribution problem: the case of predicting freshmen student attrition
Predicting student attrition is an intriguing yet challenging problem for any academic institution. Class-imbalanced data is a common in the field of student retention, mainly because a lot of students register but fewer students drop out. Classification techniques for imbalanced dataset can yield deceivingly high
prediction accuracy where the overall predictive accuracy is usually driven by the majority class at the expense of having very poor performance on the crucial minority class. In this study, we compared different data balancing techniques to improve the predictive accuracy in minority class while maintaining satisfactory overall classification performance. Specifically, we tested three balancing techniques—oversampling, under-sampling and synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE)—along with four popular classification methods—logistic regression, decision trees, neuron networks and support vector machines. We used a large and feature rich institutional student data (between the years 2005 and 2011) to assess the efficacy of both balancing techniques as well as prediction methods. The results indicated that the support vector machine combined with SMOTE data-balancing technique achieved the best classification performance with a 90.24% overall accuracy on the 10-fold holdout sample. All three data-balancing techniques improved the prediction accuracy for the minority class. Applying sensitivity analyses on developed models, we also identified the most important variables for accurate prediction of student attrition. Application of these models has the potential to accurately predict at-risk students and help reduce student dropout rates
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