Evolution, Monitoring and Predicting Models of Rockburst: Precursor Information for Rock Failure

Load/unload response ratio predicting of rockburst; Three-dimensional reconstruction of fissured rock; Nonlinear dynamics evolution pattern of rock cracks; Bayesian model for predicting rockburs

Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and Northern Mexico

A sudden increase in the scale of seismicity has occurred as a long-term precursor to twelve major earthquakes in California and Northern Mexico. These include all earthquakes along the San Andreas system during 1960-2000 with magnitude M •6.4. The full list is as follows: Colorado Delta, 1966, M 6.3; Borrego Mt., 1968, M 6.5; San Fernando, 1971, M 6.6; Brawley, 1979, M 6.4; Mexicali, 1980, M 6.1; Coalinga, 1983, M 6.7; Superstition Hills, 1987, M 6.6; Loma Prieta, 1989, M 7.0; Joshua Tree, 1992, M 6.1; Landers, 1992, M 7.3; Northridge, 1994, M 6.6; Hector Mine, 1999, M 7.1. Such a Precursory Scale Increase () was inferred from the modelling of long-term seismogenesis as a three-stage faulting process against a background of self-organised criticality. The location, onset-time and level of • are predictive of the location, time and magnitude of the future earthquake. Precursory swarms, which occur widely in subduction regions, are a special form of • ; the more general form is here shownto occur frequently in a region of continental transform. Other seismicity precursors, including quiescence and foreshocks, contribute to or modulate the increased seismicity that characterises • . The area occupied by • is small compared with those occupied by the seismicity precursors known as AMR, M8 and LURR. Further work is needed to formulate as a testable hypothesis, and to carry out the appropriate forecasting tests

Fatigue characteristics of concrete subjected to compressive cyclic loading: laboratory testing and numerical simulation

The fatigue characteristics of concrete are studied based on laboratory tests and numerical simulations. A series of compressive cyclic loading tests have been carried out on concrete samples. The effects of maximum and minimum load level on the evolution strain rate, energy dissipation, acoustic emissions (AE) and P-wave speed are analysed. Based on particle based numerical simulations, damage models corresponding to single-level and multi-level cyclic loading tests are proposed. The damage variable in the numerical model is time- and stress-dependent and is characterized by the progressive reduction of the bond diameter. The mechanical behaviour of concrete during cyclic loading tests is well reproduced in the numerical simulation. A real time fatigue failure prediction method is proposed based on the hysteresis occurrence ratio and hysteresis energy ratio. The AE characteristics during the laboratory tests are reproduced by the numerical simulations. AE counts and energy are characterized by broken bonds and released bond strain energy, respectively