Uplift Modeling with Multiple Treatments and General Response Types

Randomized experiments have been used to assist decision-making in many areas. They help people select the optimal treatment for the test population with certain statistical guarantee. However, subjects can show significant heterogeneity in response to treatments. The problem of customizing treatment assignment based on subject characteristics is known as uplift modeling, differential response analysis, or personalized treatment learning in literature. A key feature for uplift modeling is that the data is unlabeled. It is impossible to know whether the chosen treatment is optimal for an individual subject because response under alternative treatments is unobserved. This presents a challenge to both the training and the evaluation of uplift models. In this paper we describe how to obtain an unbiased estimate of the key performance metric of an uplift model, the expected response. We present a new uplift algorithm which creates a forest of randomized trees. The trees are built with a splitting criterion designed to directly optimize their uplift performance based on the proposed evaluation method. Both the evaluation method and the algorithm apply to arbitrary number of treatments and general response types. Experimental results on synthetic data and industry-provided data show that our algorithm leads to significant performance improvement over other applicable methods

Using a cognitive prosthesis to assist foodservice managerial decision-making

The artificial intelligence community has been notably unsuccessful in producing intelligent agents that think for themselves. However, there is an obvious need for increased information processing power in real life situations. An example of this can be witnessed in the training of a foodservice manager, who is expected to solve a wide variety of complex problems on a daily basis. This article explores the possibility of creating an intelligence aid, rather than an intelligence agent, to assist novice foodservice managers in making decisions that are congruent with a subject matter expert\u27s decision schema

Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential

In 1995 the author of this paper undertook a scenario exercise for British Rail to identify priorities for rail science and technology developments under the new privatised regime. Four marketbased 2010 scenarios were developed for UK rail transport: 1) cost driven; 2) quality driven, 3)technology driven and 4) environmentally driven. These helped to identify areas of strategic R&D that were needed to improve rail’s competitiveness. It is now over a decade since this scenario exercise took place. This paper, updating an earlier review (Potter and Roy, 2000), revisits the 1995 scenarios and compares them to what actual market strategies emerged within the privatised railway industry. It explores whether the four scenarios did succeed in capturing the range of market responses that emerged from rail privatisation and what lessons this contains for the use of scenarios transport research

In Print

- The Coming of the Frontier Press: How the West Was Really Won, by Barbara Cloud - We Were All Like Migrant Workers Here: Work, Community, and Memory on California’s Round Valley Reservation, by William J. Bauer, Jr. - Europe as a Political Project in the CDU: Precedents and Programs, by Daniel Villanuev

Restaurant Revenue Management

Research in revenue management has traditionally addressed the theoretical and practical strategic problems facing airlines and hotels, among other industries, but it has given little consideration to the restaurant industry. The restaurant business is similar enough to hotel and airline operations that restaurants should be able to apply revenue-management-type practices in a strategic fashion, but the applications have so far been mostly tactical. A broad theory of revenue management would permit restaurant operators to gain the benefits of strategic revenue management that they currently lack

Borrowing Trouble: Predatory Lending in Native American Communities

Based on surveys and financial data, examines the prevalence of predatory practices in Native American communities. Includes maps of predatory lenders, case studies of financial education and alternative services and products, and recommendations

Discrete Choice Models for Revenue Management

In the transportation field, the shift of airline and railway industries toward web-based distribution channels has provided passengers with better access to fare information. This has resulted in passengers becoming more strategic to price. Therefore, a better understanding of passenger choice behavior is required in order to support fare strategies. Methods based on discrete choice (DC) analysis have recently been introduced in revenue management (RM). However, applications of DC models in railway ticket pricing are limited and heterogeneity in choice behavior across different categories of travelers has mostly been ignored. Differences in individual taste are crucial for the RM sector. Additionally, strategic passenger behavior is significant, especially in markets with flexible refund and exchange policy, where ticket cancellation and exchange behavior has been recognized as having major impacts on revenues. This dissertation examines innovative approaches in discrete choice modeling to support RM systems for intercity passenger railway. The analysis, based on ticket reservation data, contributes to the existing literature in three main aspects. Firstly, this dissertation develops choice models of ticket purchase timing which account for heterogeneity across different categories of passengers. The methodology based on latent class (LC) and mixed logit (ML) model framework offers an alternative approach to demand segmentation without using trip purposes which are not available in the data set used for the analysis. Secondly, this dissertation develops RM optimization models which use parameters estimated from the choice models and demand functions as key inputs to represent passenger response to RM policy. The approach distinguishes between leisure and business travelers, depending on departure time and day of week. The formulated optimization problem maximizes ticket revenue by simultaneously solving for ticket pricing and seat allocation. Strategies are subjected to capacity constraints determined on the basis of the railway network characteristics. Finally, this dissertation develops ticket cancellation and exchange model using dynamic discrete choice model (DDCM) framework. The estimated model predicts the timing of ticket cancellations and exchanges in response to trip schedule uncertainty, fare, and refund/exchange policy of the railway service. The model is able to predict new departure times of the exchanged tickets and covers the full range of departure time alternatives offered by the railway company

TACA

The airline industry is energy intensive, has high fixed costs and its demand is very sensitive to the economic cycle. After the industry worldwide undergoes deregulation, starting with the United States in 1978, two distinct business models develop. Traditional carriers operate hub and spoke networks, offer onboard service and engage in price discrimination, whereas low cost carriers operate point to point, charge for all services and have simple tariffs. TACA begins operations in Central America in 1931 and, by 1943, has a footprint that extends from the United States to Argentina. In 1998–2001 TACA faces increased competition and a significant market downturn. In 2004 TACA CEO Roberto Kriete launches Centroamérica Fácil to stimulate air traffic in the airline\u27s base countries

Imperialism and accountability in corporate law: the limitations of incorporation law as a regulatory mechanism

This article discusses the limitations of the law incorporating a corporation (‘incorporation law’) as a control or governance mechanism in a world where it is increasingly difficult to prevent corporations choosing the incorporation law which suits them best. It uses as an example of the globalising pressures in this field three important cases on the right of establishment in the European Union