Lp-solution to the random linear delay differential equation with stochastic forcing term

[EN] This paper aims at extending a previous contribution dealing with the random autonomous-homogeneous linear differential equation with discrete delay tau > 0, by adding a random forcing term f(t) that varies with time: x'(t) = ax(t) + bx(t-tau) + f(t), t >= 0, with initial condition x(t) = g(t), -tau <= t <= 0. The coefficients a and b are assumed to be random variables, while the forcing term f(t) and the initial condition g(t) are stochastic processes on their respective time domains. The equation is regarded in the Lebesgue space L-p of random variables with finite p-th moment. The deterministic solution constructed with the method of steps and the method of variation of constants, which involves the delayed exponential function, is proved to be an L-p-solution, under certain assumptions on the random data. This proof requires the extension of the deterministic Leibniz's integral rule for differentiation to the random scenario. Finally, we also prove that, when the delay tau tends to 0, the random delay equation tends in L-p to a random equation with no delay. Numerical experiments illustrate how our methodology permits determining the main statistics of the solution process, thereby allowing for uncertainty quantification.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P.Cortés, J.; Jornet, M. (2020). Lp-solution to the random linear delay differential equation with stochastic forcing term. Mathematics. 8(6):1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8061013S11686Xiu, D., & Karniadakis, G. E. (2004). Supersensitivity due to uncertain boundary conditions. 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International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2015, 1-11. doi:10.1155/2015/47926

Eventology versus contemporary theories of uncertainty

The development of probability theory together with the Bayesian approach in the three last centuries is caused by two factors: the variability of the physical phenomena and partial ignorance about them. As now it is standard to believe [Dubois, 2007], the nature of these key factors is so various, that their descriptions are required special uncertainty theories, which differ from the probability theory and the Bayesian credo, and provide a better account of the various facets of uncertainty by putting together probabilistic and set-valued representations of information to catch a distinction between variability and ignorance. Eventology [Vorobyev, 2007], a new direction of probability theory and philosophy, offers the original event approach to the description of variability and ignorance, entering an agent, together with his/her beliefs, directly in the frameworks of scientific research in the form of eventological distribution of his/her own events. This allows eventology, by putting together probabilistic and set-event representation of information and philosophical concept of event as co-being [Bakhtin, 1920], to provide a unified strong account of various aspects of uncertainty catching distinction between variability and ignorance and opening an opportunity to define imprecise probability as a probability of imprecise event in the mathematical frameworks of Kolmogorov's probability theory [Kolmogorov, 1933].uncertainty, probability, event, co-being, eventology, imprecise event

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure