The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has been increasingly funded by smaller savings, booming financial profits, wealth extracted from house price appreciation and explosive debt. This is in stark contrast with the productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s. This transition, starting in the early 1980s, was further supported by a climate of deregulation and a massive growth in financial derivatives designed to spread and diversify the risks globally. The result has been a succession of bubbles and crashes, including the worldwide stock market bubble and great crash of October 1987, the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s, the burst in 1991 of the enormous Japanese real estate and stock market bubbles, the emerging markets bubbles and crashes in 1994 and 1997, the LTCM crisis of 1998, the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, the recent house price bubbles, the financialization bubble via special investment vehicles, the stock market bubble, the commodity and oil bubbles and the debt bubbles, all developing jointly and feeding on each other. Rather than still hoping that real wealth will come out of money creation, we need fundamentally new ways of thinking. In uncertain times, it is essential, more than ever, to think in scenarios: what can happen in the future, and, what would be the effect on your wealth and capital? How can you protect against adverse scenarios? We thus end by examining the question "what can we do?" from the macro level, discussing the fundamental issue of incentives and of constructing and predicting scenarios as well as developing investment insights.Comment: 27 pages, 18 figures (Notenstein Academy White Paper Series

Rethinking Sanitation: Lessons and Innovation for Sustainability and Success in the New Millennium

This report highlights some of the key lessons learned from the past about sustainable sanitation solutions, new thinking emerging from consolidated learning and innovative experimentation on-the-ground, and some of the conditions necessary for success if real improvements in sanitation are to be achieved and sustained in rural and urban areas. Special attention is placed on the shift from supply-led sanitation projects to demand-led and market-oriented projects. The report concludes that with much deeper attention and broadened interest in sanitation, a more realistic view of the complexity, time, resources and effort needed to meet the challenge of large-scale sustainable changes in sanitation at the household level

Democratizing Manufacturing: Bridging the Gap Between Invention and Manufacturing

Entrepreneurs and small firms in the U.S. face significant challenges as they scale up their innovations to volume production. Despite innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, the transition to cost-competitive, large-scale manufacturing can be difficult for domestic firms. To assist small U.S. companies to more effectively ramp up production, MForesight assembled more than 30 experts in manufacturing at a workshop on “Democratizing Manufacturing.” The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the gaps and barriers in technology and education that prevent the competitive design and production of engineered components by small businesses in the U.S. This effort is both timely and important because a large fraction of high-value products are now manufactured outside of the U.S. Companies in Europe and Asia are winning bids to manufacture products designed in the U.S. for a host of reasons, including a willingness on the part of their own governments to consistently invest in manufacturing (both infrastructure and human capital). To successfully compete in the global manufacturing marketplace, the U.S. needs to adopt new strategies for education, technology development, and industrial policy.National Science Foundation, Grant No. 1552534https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/145152/1/Democratizing-Manufacturing-Dec2016.pd

Rethinking Sanitation: Lessons and Innovation for Sustainability and Success in the New Millennium

human development, water, sanitation

The architecture of automobile and building design : learning from 100 years of parallel processes

The industrial revolution has had a critical impact on society in general and architecture in particular. How we design, build and use buildings is different due to industrial changes in materials, processes and techniques. A key manifestation of the industrial revolution has been the automobile. Since the automobile is a more direct result of application of technique, it is helpful to examine its design to better understand the less direct influences of technique in architecture. This is especially important at a time when the role of technology in architecture is becoming both more significant and more difficult to define and evaluate. Looking at how various design concepts and objectives have been used in parallel between automobile and building designers is interesting and helpful to designers of both. Each can learn a great deal from the other. This end is aided by examining four noteworthy architects of the past one hundred years that were actively involved in building and automobile design. Not all of the technological objectives of automobile design have been achieved in its contemporary design. Some of these same objectives appear to have been better realized in building design. Work by some contemporary architects illustrates how this has occurred and how it might be furthered in the interest of improving the quality of future architecture

Algorithms for advance bandwidth reservation in media production networks

Media production generally requires many geographically distributed actors (e.g., production houses, broadcasters, advertisers) to exchange huge amounts of raw video and audio data. Traditional distribution techniques, such as dedicated point-to-point optical links, are highly inefficient in terms of installation time and cost. To improve efficiency, shared media production networks that connect all involved actors over a large geographical area, are currently being deployed. The traffic in such networks is often predictable, as the timing and bandwidth requirements of data transfers are generally known hours or even days in advance. As such, the use of advance bandwidth reservation (AR) can greatly increase resource utilization and cost efficiency. In this paper, we propose an Integer Linear Programming formulation of the bandwidth scheduling problem, which takes into account the specific characteristics of media production networks, is presented. Two novel optimization algorithms based on this model are thoroughly evaluated and compared by means of in-depth simulation results

Organizational change and development : annotated and supplemental bibliography / 191

Includes bibliographical references (p. 48-80)

Information scraps: how and why information eludes our personal information management tools

In this paper we describe information scraps -- a class of personal information whose content is scribbled on Post-it notes, scrawled on corners of random sheets of paper, buried inside the bodies of e-mail messages sent to ourselves, or typed haphazardly into text files. Information scraps hold our great ideas, sketches, notes, reminders, driving directions, and even our poetry. We define information scraps to be the body of personal information that is held outside of its natural or We have much still to learn about these loose forms of information capture. Why are they so often held outside of our traditional PIM locations and instead on Post-its or in text files? Why must we sometimes go around our traditional PIM applications to hold on to our scraps, such as by e-mailing ourselves? What are information scraps' role in the larger space of personal information management, and what do they uniquely offer that we find so appealing? If these unorganized bits truly indicate the failure of our PIM tools, how might we begin to build better tools? We have pursued these questions by undertaking a study of 27 knowledge workers. In our findings we describe information scraps from several angles: their content, their location, and the factors that lead to their use, which we identify as ease of capture, flexibility of content and organization, and avilability at the time of need. We also consider the personal emotive responses around scrap management. We present a set of design considerations that we have derived from the analysis of our study results. We present our work on an application platform, jourknow, to test some of these design and usability findings

The tertiary education institution of the future towards 2030: scenarios for skills transformation

The research methodology used in this research was comprised of Inayatullah’s Six Pillars of Futures Studies, in which emphasis was placed on scenario planning and the creation of alternative scenarios for the tertiary education institutions in South Africa towards 2030. An environmental scan revealed the drivers of change in the education sector and in the world of work. Deepening of the future of education was done through Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to facilitate the discerning of issues from various viewpoints in the creation and expansion of transformative stories so as to provide a window into possible futures for skills transformation. The four scenarios for the tertiary education institution of the future, namely “Stairway to Heaven”, “Highway to Hell”, “Bat out of Hell” and “Still Raining” were developed. These scenarios can be used as departure points by tertiary education providers to make strides towards the Global Sustainable Development Education 2030 targets and the attainment of South Africa’s Vision 2030 targets contained in the National Development Plan. Equally important, these scenarios make known what was previously unknown, exploring the possible and impossible, and encouraging new, innovative thinking for decision-makers. The “Stairway to Heaven” scenario supplies a future in which all stakeholders approve of and embrace the mandate of providing relevant skills and job readiness in a fast-changing world, and the benefits are maximised for all involved through co-creation. It is a scenario where industry, tertiary institutions and society have decided that the purpose of education should be lifelong learning for a viable, productive and sustainable world. The desired future of tertiary education is set against a backdrop of public and private sector collaboration, with the aim of turning the nation into an excellent hub for skills transformation. Furthermore, the scenario provides some insight on the vital measures required to embrace the innovation and the appropriate pedagogy. This research was motivated by the need to shine a light on the 21st century learner, rapidly obsoleting skills, no-collar worker, skills of the future, learning futures, and possible predictions about what new jobs may come into existence so that educationists can better prepare for the future. This research offers solutions on how institutions can prepare students for future jobs, especially considering the rapid changes in jobs and the unprecedented demise of certain jobs. The research closes a research gap through creating scenarios that offer various stakeholders in the tertiary education sector different insights and analysis into a number of interpretations of the potential paths that they can follow. The scenario application culminated in the formulation and creation of a “future vision of the tertiary education institution in South Africa towards 2030”, delivering a platform for skills transformation that will deliver adaptable workers, and sustainable and inclusive progress for all South Africans. To bring transformation into the present and design the future that embraces skills transformation, it is invaluable to interrogate the roles and choices that stakeholders of the educational sector make in determining the preferred future. The approach of this research makes it clear that, as the new world of work transpires, policymakers, students, labour, educational leaders, captains of industry and workers must proactively manage the workforce transitions. The focal issue is to discover the appropriate tools that will establish the confidence necessary to create the preferred future for skills transformation in tertiary institutions. This research has laid a platform for co-creation with various stakeholders in an effort to visualise a tertiary institution that contributes to skills development. The vision must accept that the South African jobs and skills historical profile is different from that of industrialised countries. Alternatively, the nation should respond to the double-barrelled challenge of participating in a high skills’ competitive environment on a global scale, as well as a local context that creates low-wage, blue-collar jobs to absorb the large numbers who are unemployed. The challenge is even greater for South Africa, because the economy – if highly service-oriented, with a big informal sector and a quality postgraduate education offering – is supported by a basic education system that is not producing enough critical thinkers who are equipped for university and work life. Thus, the system requires a double transformation to ensure student-centredness and meet the needs of a future worker