Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries

Investment decision-making is modeled by means of a Kohonen neural net, where neurons represent firms. This is done in order to model investments in novel fields of economic activity, that according to this model are carried out when firms recognize the emergence of a new technological pattern. Combination of the equations of Kohonen model neuron with macroeconomic relationships yields disaggregated accelerator equations with flexible coefficients, that in the aggregate and fixed- coefficients case boil down to traditional accelerator equations. A simulation tests the model in a situation that is remindful of the very beginning of economic recoveries.Accelerator, Investment, Neural Nets, Cognition

Control of Complex Economy through Fiscal Variables. Economics & Complexity - Spring - 1998 - Vol2 N1

The aim of this work is that of exemplifying some applications of the modern theory of the complexity to the economic sector; we will highlight some of the possibilities of control of chaotic systems and some of that possibilities which are opened by the study of such systems. Remembering how a simple traditional macroeconomic model can give place to deterministic chaotic phenomena we will highlight: a) how it is possible to control such a system using opportune values of the fiscal variables; b) how it is possible to foresee the trend of the objective variable through a neural network, and, therefore, subsequently to control it on the basis of the value instruments chosen by the neural network. This will be done either in the presence of casual noises or in the case of a completely deterministic model; c) finally a different and more recent method of controlling chaotic systems will be indicated.Public Finance, Complexity, Control of Economics, Macroeconomics

Knowledge politics and new converging technologies: a social epistemological perspective

The “new converging technologies” refers to the prospect of advancing the human condition by the integrated study and application of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and the cognitive sciences - or “NBIC”. In recent years, it has loomed large, albeit with somewhat different emphases, in national science policy agendas throughout the world. This article considers the political and intellectual sources - both historical and contemporary - of the converging technologies agenda. Underlying it is a fluid conception of humanity that is captured by the ethically challenging notion of “enhancing evolution”

Two Stage Portfolio Selection and Optimization Model with the Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization

The selection criteria play an important role in the portfolio optimization using any ratio model. In this paper, the authors have considered the mean return as profit and variance of return as risk on the asset return as selection criteria, as the first stage to optimize the selected portfolio. Furthermore, the sharp ratio (SR) has been considered to be the optimization ratio model. In this regard, the historical data taken from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has been considered. A metaheuristic technique has been developed, with financial tool box available in MATLAB and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Hence, called as the hybrid particle swarm optimization (HPSO) or can also be called as financial tool box particle swarm optimization (FTB-PSO). In this model, the budgets as constraint, where as two different models i.e. with and without short sale, have been considered. The obtained results have been compared with the existing literature and the proposed technique is found to be optimum and better in terms of profit

MLFatigueDetection Machine Learning Based Walking Fatigue Detection

Leg fatigue can influence the gait patterns, therefore declining the postural stability and the motor performance, increasing the risk of falls. In order to improve the earlier detection of risks and the application of fall prevention strategies, automated solutions based on gait analysis must be developed. A sector of the population at risk is the workforce where a majority of workers admits to be fatigued and where falls can lead to serious workplace injuries or even deaths. In these cases, having the ability to detect if the user is fatigued in real time by simply using the motion sensors on the smartphone and processing it with machine learning can lead to the prevention of falls and the consequences these bring. Phones andwearable devices were studied for their ability to be used to extract inertial sensor’s data to provide enough information for the fatigue detection. Supervised machine learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks, will be used to process this information for fatigue level classification. Their performance will then be compared to find the best algorithm for fatigue detection. In addition to this comparative work, different conditions for the data collection and processing were tested in an effort to discover the optimal conditions for the implementation of the algorithms

Vehicle dynamics virtual sensing and advanced motion control for highly skilled autonomous vehicles

This dissertation is aimed at elucidating the path towards the development of a future generation of highly-skilled autonomous vehicles (HSAV). In brief, it is envisaged that future HSAVs will be able to exhibit advanced driving skills to maintain the vehicle within stable limits in spite of the driving conditions (limits of handling) or environmental adversities (e.g. low manoeuvrability surfaces). Current research lines on intelligent systems indicate that such advanced driving behaviour may be realised by means of expert systems capable of monitoring the current vehicle states, learning the road friction conditions, and adapting their behaviour depending on the identified situation. Such adaptation skills are often exhibited by professional motorsport drivers, who fine-tune their driving behaviour depending on the road geometry or tyre-friction characteristics. On this basis, expert systems incorporating advanced driving functions inspired by the techniques seen on highly-skilled drivers (e.g. high body slip control) are proposed to extend the operating region of autonomous vehicles and achieve high-level automation (e.g. manoeuvrability enhancement on low-adherence surfaces). Specifically, two major research topics are covered in detail in this dissertation to conceive these expert systems: vehicle dynamics virtual sensing and advanced motion control. With regards to the former, a comprehensive research is undertaken to propose virtual sensors able to estimate the vehicle planar motion states and learn the road friction characteristics from readily available measurements. In what concerns motion control, systems to mimic advanced driving skills and achieve robust path-following ability are pursued. An optimal coordinated action of different chassis subsystems (e.g. steering and individual torque control) is sought by the adoption of a centralised multi-actuated system framework. The virtual sensors developed in this work are validated experimentally with the Vehicle-Based Objective Tyre Testing (VBOTT) research testbed of JAGUAR LAND ROVER and the advanced motion control functions with the Multi-Actuated Ground Vehicle “DevBot” of ARRIVAL and ROBORACE.Diese Dissertation soll den Weg zur Entwicklung einer zukünftigen Generation hochqualifizierter autonomer Fahrzeuge (HSAV) aufzeigen. Kurz gesagt, es ist beabsichtigt, dass zukünftige HSAVs fortgeschrittene Fahrfähigkeiten aufweisen können, um das Fahrzeug trotz der Fahrbedingungen (Grenzen des Fahrverhaltens) oder Umgebungsbedingungen (z. B. Oberflächen mit geringer Manövrierfähigkeit) in stabilen Grenzen zu halten. Aktuelle Forschungslinien zu intelligenten Systemen weisen darauf hin, dass ein solches fortschrittliches Fahrverhalten mit Hilfe von Expertensystemen realisiert werden kann, die in der Lage sind, die aktuellen Fahrzeugzustände zu überwachen, die Straßenreibungsbedingungen kennenzulernen und ihr Verhalten in Abhängigkeit von der ermittelten Situation anzupassen. Solche Anpassungsfähigkeiten werden häufig von professionellen Motorsportfahrern gezeigt, die ihr Fahrverhalten in Abhängigkeit von der Straßengeometrie oder den Reifenreibungsmerkmalen abstimmen. Auf dieser Grundlage werden Expertensysteme mit fortschrittlichen Fahrfunktionen vorgeschlagen, die auf den Techniken hochqualifizierter Fahrer basieren (z. B. hohe Schlupfregelung), um den Betriebsbereich autonomer Fahrzeuge zu erweitern und eine Automatisierung auf hohem Niveau zu erreichen (z. B. Verbesserung der Manövrierfähigkeit auf niedrigem Niveau) -haftende Oberflächen). Um diese Expertensysteme zu konzipieren, werden zwei große Forschungsthemen in dieser Dissertation ausführlich behandelt: Fahrdynamik-virtuelle Wahrnehmung und fortschrittliche Bewegungssteuerung. In Bezug auf erstere wird eine umfassende Forschung durchgeführt, um virtuelle Sensoren vorzuschlagen, die in der Lage sind, die Bewegungszustände der Fahrzeugebenen abzuschätzen und die Straßenreibungseigenschaften aus leicht verfügbaren Messungen kennenzulernen. In Bezug auf die Bewegungssteuerung werden Systeme zur Nachahmung fortgeschrittener Fahrfähigkeiten und zum Erzielen einer robusten Wegfolgefähigkeit angestrebt. Eine optimale koordinierte Wirkung verschiedener Fahrgestellsubsysteme (z. B. Lenkung und individuelle Drehmomentsteuerung) wird durch die Annahme eines zentralisierten, mehrfach betätigten Systemrahmens angestrebt. Die in dieser Arbeit entwickelten virtuellen Sensoren wurden experimentell mit dem Vehicle-Based Objective Tyre Testing (VBOTT) - Prüfstand von JAGUAR LAND ROVER und den fortschrittlichen Bewegungssteuerungsfunktionen mit dem mehrfach betätigten Bodenfahrzeug ”DevBot” von ARRIVAL und ROBORACE validiert

Sustainable Inventory Management Model for High-Volume Material with Limited Storage Space under Stochastic Demand and Supply

Inventory management and control has become an important management function, which is vital in ensuring the efficiency and profitability of a company’s operations. Hence, several research studies attempted to develop models to be used to minimise the quantities of excess inventory, in order to reduce their associated costs without compromising both operational efficiency and customers’ needs. The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model is one of the most used of these models; however, this model has a number of limiting assumptions, which led to the development of a number of extensions for this model to increase its applicability to the modern-day business environment. Therefore, in this research study, a sustainable inventory management model is developed based on the EOQ concept to optimise the ordering and storage of large-volume inventory, which deteriorates over time, with limited storage space, such as steel, under stochastic demand, supply and backorders. Two control systems were developed and tested in this research study in order to select the most robust system: an open-loop system, based on direct control through which five different time series for each stochastic variable were generated, before an attempt to optimise the average profit was conducted; and a closed-loop system, which uses a neural network, depicting the different business and economic conditions associated with the steel manufacturing industry, to generate the optimal control parameters for each week across the entire planning horizon. A sensitivity analysis proved that the closed-loop neural network control system was more accurate in depicting real-life business conditions, and more robust in optimising the inventory management process for a large-volume, deteriorating item. Moreover, due to its advantages over other techniques, a meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) algorithm was used to solve this model. This model is implemented throughout the research in the case of a steel manufacturing factory under different operational and extreme economic scenarios. As a result of the case study, the developed model proved its robustness and accuracy in managing the inventory of such a unique industry