Variable speed limits: conceptual design for Queensland practice

Variable Speed Limits (VSL) is an Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) control tool which can enhance traffic safety and which has the potential to contribute to traffic efficiency. Queensland's motorways experience a large volume of commuter traffic in peak periods, leading to heavy recurrent congestion and a high frequency of incidents. Consequently, Queensland's Department of Transport and Main Roads have considered deploying VSL to improve safety and efficiency. This paper identifies three types of VSL and three applicable conditions for activating VSL on for Queensland motorways: high flow, queuing and adverse weather. The design objectives and methodology for each condition are analysed, and micro-simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of VSL

Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

A Data Driven Approach to Quantify the Impact of Crashes

The growth of data has begun to transform the transportation research and policy, and open a new window for analyzing the impact of crashes. Currently for the crash impact analysis, researchers tend to rely on reported incident duration, which may not always be accurate. Further, impact of the crashes could linger a much longer time at upstream, even if the records are correct for the crash spot and it is a challenge to quantify the impact of a crash from the complex dynamics of the recurrent and non-recurrent congested condition. Therefore, a difference-in-speed approach is developed in this research to estimate the true crash impact duration using stationary sensor data and incident logs. The proposed method used the Kalman filter algorithm to establish traveler’s anticipated travel speed under incident-free condition and then employ the difference-in-speed approach to quantify the temporal and spatial extent of the crash. Moreover, potential applications such as statistical models for predicting the impact duration and total delay were developed in this research. Later, an analysis on distribution of travel rate was performed to describe and numerically show to what extent crashes influenced travel rates compared with the normal conditions at different periods of the day and by the crash types. This study can help to shape incident management policies for different types of crashes at different periods and illustrates the usages of data to improve the understanding of crashes, their impact, and their distribution in a spatial-temporal domain

Integrated Approach for Diversion Route Performance Management during Incidents

Non-recurrent congestion is one of the critical sources of congestion on the highway. In particular, traffic incidents create congestion in unexpected times and places that travelers do not prepare for. During incidents on freeways, route diversion has been proven to be a useful tactic to mitigate non-recurrent congestion. However, the capacity constraints created by the signals on the alternative routes put limits on the diversion process since the typical time-of-day signal control cannot handle the sudden increase in the traffic on the arterials due to diversion. Thus, there is a need for proactive strategies for the management of the diversion routes performance and for coordinated freeway and arterial (CFA) operation during incidents on the freeway. Proactive strategies provide better opportunities for both the agency and the traveler to make and implement decisions to improve performance. This dissertation develops a methodology for the performance management of diversion routes through integrating freeway and arterials operation during incidents on the freeway. The methodology includes the identification of potential diversion routes for freeway incidents and the generation and implementation of special signal plans under different incident and traffic conditions. The study utilizes machine learning, data analytics, multi-resolution modeling, and multi-objective optimization for this purpose. A data analytic approach based on the long short term memory (LSTM) deep neural network method is used to predict the utilized alternative routes dynamically using incident attributes and traffic status on the freeway and travel time on both the freeway and alternative routes during the incident. Then, a combination of clustering analysis, multi- resolution modeling (MRM), and multi-objective optimization techniques are used to develop and activate special signal plans on the identified alternative routes. The developed methods use data from different sources, including connected vehicle (CV) data and high- resolution controller (HRC) data for congestion patterns identification at the critical intersections on the alternative routes and signal plans generation. The results indicate that implementing signal timing plans to better accommodate the diverted traffic can improve the performance of the diverted traffic without significantly deteriorating other movements\u27 performance at the intersection. The findings show the importance of using data from emerging sources in developing plans to improve the performance of the diversion routes and ensure CFA operation with higher effectiveness

Significance of sensor location in real-time traffic state estimation

Short-term congestion caused due to traffic incidents or other road environment factors significantly reduces traffic flow capacity of a link which forms a major part of travel time delays. Accurate and reliable estimate of real-time traffic state is essential for optimizing network performance during unpredictable events. Inaccurate estimate of current traffic state produces unreliable travel-time estimations which lead to ineffective traffic management strategies during traffic incident. This study highlights the accuracy and reliability of traffic state estimate when a traffic flow prediction model is not provided with information about duration and impact of the incident on traffic flow capacity of the link. Cell Transmission Model (CTM) is used for prediction of traffic state and measurements from the sensor are combined in Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to minimize square of error between predicted and measured traffic state. A simple link is used to highlight the difference between actual traffic state and estimated traffic state using a naive prediction model for real-time traffic state estimation. Analysis of simulation results shows that estimate of traffic state is reliable and accurate for cells upstream of the measurement sensor when incident occurred downstream of measurement sensor. Whereas when incident location is upstream of measurement sensor, the estimated traffic state for downstream cells of measurement sensor is more close to actual traffic condition

DxNAT - Deep Neural Networks for Explaining Non-Recurring Traffic Congestion

Non-recurring traffic congestion is caused by temporary disruptions, such as accidents, sports games, adverse weather, etc. We use data related to real-time traffic speed, jam factors (a traffic congestion indicator), and events collected over a year from Nashville, TN to train a multi-layered deep neural network. The traffic dataset contains over 900 million data records. The network is thereafter used to classify the real-time data and identify anomalous operations. Compared with traditional approaches of using statistical or machine learning techniques, our model reaches an accuracy of 98.73 percent when identifying traffic congestion caused by football games. Our approach first encodes the traffic across a region as a scaled image. After that the image data from different timestamps is fused with event- and time-related data. Then a crossover operator is used as a data augmentation method to generate training datasets with more balanced classes. Finally, we use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to tune the sensitivity of the classifier. We present the analysis of the training time and the inference time separately