Optimal Dynamic Procurement Policies for a Storable Commodity with L\'evy Prices and Convex Holding Costs

In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal procurement problem as a singular stochastic control problem in which controls are nondecreasing processes and represent the cumulative investment made by the firm in the spot market (a so-called stochastic "monotone follower problem"). We assume a general exponential L\'evy process for the commodity's spot price, rather than the commonly used geometric Brownian motion, and general convex holding costs. We obtain necessary and sufficient first order conditions for optimality and we provide the optimal procurement policy in terms of a "base inventory" process; that is, a minimal time-dependent desirable inventory level that the firm's manager must reach at any time. In particular, in the case of linear holding costs and exponentially distributed demand, we are also able to obtain the explicit analytic form of the optimal policy and a probabilistic representation of the optimal revenue. The paper is completed by some computer drawings of the optimal inventory when spot prices are given by a geometric Brownian motion and by an exponential jump-diffusion process. In the first case we also make a numerical comparison between the value function and the revenue associated to the classical static "newsvendor" strategy.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures; improved presentation, added new results and section

Optimal Harvesting under Resource Stock and Price Uncertainty

We analyze optimal harvesting policy under stochastic price and stock dynamics. We state a set of weak conditions under which the optimal policy can be characterized by a single exercise threshold and show that the value of optimal harvesting and depletion policies can be expressed as the separable form according to which only the current price and the expected per capita growth rate affect the threshold, while under risk neutrality volatility of price dynamics will have no effect. Uncertainty makes waiting valuable and the optimal threshold is higher when harvesting can be exercised only once than in the sequential case.optimal harvesting, stochastic price and stock dynamics, single and sequential harvesting opportunity

On Poisson constrained control of linear diffusions

The classical setting in optimal stopping and optimal control theory assumes that the agent controlling the system can operate continuously in time. In optimal stopping this setting is highly stylized for many applications, for example, in mathematical finance due to illiquid markets. In optimal stochastic control this setting often leads to optimal strategies being singular with respect to the Lebesgue measure, and thus the strategies are not feasible in practice. Hence, it is of importance to study these problems from such a perspective that their solutions are practically more implementable. In this thesis we alter the classical setting by introducing an exogenous constraint, in the form of a signal process, for the control opportunities of the agent. In order to keep the problems more tractable, especially time-homogeneous and Markovian, the signal process is assumed to be a Poisson process with constant intensity. Consequently, the agent can only have influence on the system at discrete times. We call these control problems Poisson constrained control problems and study them when the dynamics are governed by linear diffusion processes. Linear diffusions are particular enough to have a rich theory but still general enough to offer a class of interesting dynamics that are applicable in various situations. A key factor is also that many control problems with diffusions will lead to closed-form solutions. This thesis investigates to which extent the classical theory of diffusion can be applied in this class of control problems to form closed-form solutions

A General Approach to the Stochastic Rotation Problem with Amenity Valuation

This paper presents a new approach to study the optimal rotation policy with amenity valuation under uncertainty. We first postulate the stochastic forest value and assume plausibly that monetary value of amenities is a continuous and non-negative function of forest value thus presenting the trade-off between timber revenues and amenity values. Second, instead of using a dynamic programming approach, we derive a recursive representation of the total forest value and solve the optimal rotation threshold by applying ordinary non-linear programming techniques. Third, we characterize under certain set of conditions how the properties of both the expected cumulative value and the expected marginal cumulative value, accrued from amenity services, depend on the precise nature of the monetary valuation of amenities and what is the impact of volatility on these concepts. Finally, we illustrate our results explicitly in models based on logistic growth by focusing on the role of amenity valuation and volatility of forest value in the determination of Wicksellian and Faustmannian thresholds. Our theoretical and numerical findings emphasize the crucial importance of the nature of amenity valuation for the impact of higher volatility of forest value on the rotation thresholds.amenity valuation, optimal Faustmannian and Wicksellian rotation policy, stochatic impulse control

Non-intrusive and structure preserving multiscale integration of stiff ODEs, SDEs and Hamiltonian systems with hidden slow dynamics via flow averaging

We introduce a new class of integrators for stiff ODEs as well as SDEs. These integrators are (i) {\it Multiscale}: they are based on flow averaging and so do not fully resolve the fast variables and have a computational cost determined by slow variables (ii) {\it Versatile}: the method is based on averaging the flows of the given dynamical system (which may have hidden slow and fast processes) instead of averaging the instantaneous drift of assumed separated slow and fast processes. This bypasses the need for identifying explicitly (or numerically) the slow or fast variables (iii) {\it Nonintrusive}: A pre-existing numerical scheme resolving the microscopic time scale can be used as a black box and easily turned into one of the integrators in this paper by turning the large coefficients on over a microscopic timescale and off during a mesoscopic timescale (iv) {\it Convergent over two scales}: strongly over slow processes and in the sense of measures over fast ones. We introduce the related notion of two-scale flow convergence and analyze the convergence of these integrators under the induced topology (v) {\it Structure preserving}: for stiff Hamiltonian systems (possibly on manifolds), they can be made to be symplectic, time-reversible, and symmetry preserving (symmetries are group actions that leave the system invariant) in all variables. They are explicit and applicable to arbitrary stiff potentials (that need not be quadratic). Their application to the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam problems shows accuracy and stability over four orders of magnitude of time scales. For stiff Langevin equations, they are symmetry preserving, time-reversible and Boltzmann-Gibbs reversible, quasi-symplectic on all variables and conformally symplectic with isotropic friction.Comment: 69 pages, 21 figure

Controlled diffusion processes

This article gives an overview of the developments in controlled diffusion processes, emphasizing key results regarding existence of optimal controls and their characterization via dynamic programming for a variety of cost criteria and structural assumptions. Stochastic maximum principle and control under partial observations (equivalently, control of nonlinear filters) are also discussed. Several other related topics are briefly sketched.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/154957805100000131 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org