10,191 research outputs found
Empirical comparison of the performance of location estimates of fuzzy number-valued data
Š Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019. Several location measures have already been proposed in the literature in order to summarize the central tendency of a random fuzzy number in a robust way. Among them, fuzzy trimmed means and fuzzy M-estimators of location extend two successful approaches from the real-valued settings. The aim of this work is to present an empirical comparison of different location estimators, including both fuzzy trimmed means and fuzzy M-estimators, to study their differences in finite sample behaviour.status: publishe
A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods
The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services
Linearity Testing Against a Fuzzy Rule-based Model
In this paper, we introduce a linearity test for fuzzy rule-based models in the framework of time series modeling. To do so, we explore a family of statistical models, the regime switching autoregressive models, and the relations that link them to the fuzzy rule-based models. From these relations, we derive a Lagrange Multiplier linearity test and some properties of the maximum likelihood estimator needed for it. Finally, an empirical study of the goodness of the test is presented.fuzzy rule-based models, time series, linearity test, statistical inference
Absorptive capacity and the growth and investment effects of regional transfers : a regression discontinuity design with heterogeneous treatment effects
Researchers often estimate average treatment effects of programs without investigating heterogeneity across units. Yet, individuals, firms, regions, or countries vary in their ability, e.g., to utilize transfers. We analyze Objective 1 Structural Funds transfers of the European Commission to regions of EU member states below a certain income level by way of a regression discontinuity
design with systematically heterogeneous treatment effects. Only about 30% and 21% of the regions - those with sufficient human capital and good-enough institutions - are able to turn transfers into faster per-capita
income growth and per-capita investment. In general, the variance of the treatment effect is much bigger than its mean
Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: Incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data
The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that
estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring
treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment
or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a
continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug
prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of
medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to
those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription
policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In
this paper we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however,
the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are
prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. NHS guidelines state
that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10 year cardiovascular
disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose scores are
close to this threshold we find that there is an element of random variation in
both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can thus consider the
threshold a randomising device assigning the prescription to units just above
the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus we are effectively
replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing
or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of
conditional independence which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply it
to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also
have context specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of
statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models
by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 2 table
Different distance measures for fuzzy linear regression with Monte Carlo methods
The aim of this study was to determine the best distance measure for estimating the fuzzy linear regression model parameters with Monte Carlo (MC) methods. It is pointed out that only one distance measure is used for fuzzy linear regression with MC methods within the literature. Therefore, three different definitions of distance measure between two fuzzy numbers are introduced. Estimation accuracies of existing and proposed distance measures are explored with the simulation study. Distance measures are compared to each other in terms of estimation accuracy; hence this study demonstrates that the best distance measures to estimate fuzzy linear regression model parameters with MC methods are the distance measures defined by Kaufmann and Gupta (Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic theory and applications. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1991), Heilpern-2 (Fuzzy Sets Syst 91(2):259â268, 1997) and Chen and Hsieh (Aust J Intell Inf Process Syst 6(4):217â229, 2000). One the other hand, the worst distance measure is the distance measure used by Abdalla and Buckley (Soft Comput 11:991â996, 2007; Soft Comput 12:463â468, 2008). These results would be useful to enrich the studies that have already focused on fuzzy linear regression models
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