European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting

Training Echo State Networks with Regularization through Dimensionality Reduction

In this paper we introduce a new framework to train an Echo State Network to predict real valued time-series. The method consists in projecting the output of the internal layer of the network on a space with lower dimensionality, before training the output layer to learn the target task. Notably, we enforce a regularization constraint that leads to better generalization capabilities. We evaluate the performances of our approach on several benchmark tests, using different techniques to train the readout of the network, achieving superior predictive performance when using the proposed framework. Finally, we provide an insight on the effectiveness of the implemented mechanics through a visualization of the trajectory in the phase space and relying on the methodologies of nonlinear time-series analysis. By applying our method on well known chaotic systems, we provide evidence that the lower dimensional embedding retains the dynamical properties of the underlying system better than the full-dimensional internal states of the network

A cyclo-stationary complex multichannel wiener filter for the prediction of wind speed and direction

This paper develops a linear predictor for application to wind speed and direction forecasting in time and across different sites. The wind speed and direction are modelled via the magnitude and phase of a complex-valued time-series. A multichannel adaptive filter is set to predict this signal, based on its past values and the spatio-temporal correlation between wind signals measured at numerous geographical locations. The time-varying nature of the underlying system and the annual cycle of seasons motivates the development of a cyclo-stationary Wiener filter, which is tested on hourly mean wind speed and direction data from 13 weather stations across the UK, and shown to provide an improvement over both stationary Wiener filtering and a recent auto-regressive approach

Hybrid learning for interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic systems as applied to identification and prediction problems

This paper presents a novel application of a hybrid learning approach to the optimisation of membership and non-membership functions of a newly developed interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IT2 IFLS) of a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system with neural network learning capability. The hybrid algorithms consisting of decou- pled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) and gradient descent (GD) are used to tune the parameters of the IT2 IFLS for the first time. The DEKF is used to tune the consequent parameters in the forward pass while the GD method is used to tune the antecedents parts during the backward pass of the hybrid learning. The hybrid algorithm is described and evaluated, prediction and identification results together with the runtime are compared with similar existing studies in the literature. Performance comparison is made between the proposed hybrid learning model of IT2 IFLS, a TSK-type-1 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IFLS-TSK) and a TSK-type interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2 FLS-TSK) on two instances of the datasets under investigation. The empirical comparison is made on the designed systems using three artificially generated datasets and three real world datasets. Analysis of results reveal that IT2 IFLS outperforms its type-1 variants, IT2 FLS and most of the existing models in the literature. Moreover, the minimal run time of the proposed hybrid learning model for IT2 IFLS also puts this model forward as a good candidate for application in real time systems