Robust Non-Linear Regression Using The Dogleg Algorithm

What are the statistical and computational problems associated with robust nonlinear regression? This paper presents a number of possible approaches to these problems and develops a particular algorithm based on the work of Powell and Dennis.

The geometry of nonlinear least squares with applications to sloppy models and optimization

Parameter estimation by nonlinear least squares minimization is a common problem with an elegant geometric interpretation: the possible parameter values of a model induce a manifold in the space of data predictions. The minimization problem is then to find the point on the manifold closest to the data. We show that the model manifolds of a large class of models, known as sloppy models, have many universal features; they are characterized by a geometric series of widths, extrinsic curvatures, and parameter-effects curvatures. A number of common difficulties in optimizing least squares problems are due to this common structure. First, algorithms tend to run into the boundaries of the model manifold, causing parameters to diverge or become unphysical. We introduce the model graph as an extension of the model manifold to remedy this problem. We argue that appropriate priors can remove the boundaries and improve convergence rates. We show that typical fits will have many evaporated parameters. Second, bare model parameters are usually ill-suited to describing model behavior; cost contours in parameter space tend to form hierarchies of plateaus and canyons. Geometrically, we understand this inconvenient parametrization as an extremely skewed coordinate basis and show that it induces a large parameter-effects curvature on the manifold. Using coordinates based on geodesic motion, these narrow canyons are transformed in many cases into a single quadratic, isotropic basin. We interpret the modified Gauss-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt fitting algorithms as an Euler approximation to geodesic motion in these natural coordinates on the model manifold and the model graph respectively. By adding a geodesic acceleration adjustment to these algorithms, we alleviate the difficulties from parameter-effects curvature, improving both efficiency and success rates at finding good fits.Comment: 40 pages, 29 Figure

(Non) Linear Regression Modeling

We will study causal relationships of a known form between random variables. Given a model, we distinguish one or more dependent (endogenous) variables Y = (Y1, . . . , Yl), l ∈ N, which are explained by a model, and independent (exogenous, explanatory) variables X = (X1, . . . ,Xp), p ∈ N, which explain or predict the dependent variables by means of the model. Such relationships and models are commonly referred to as regression models. --

Magnetometer calibration using inertial sensors

In this work we present a practical algorithm for calibrating a magnetometer for the presence of magnetic disturbances and for magnetometer sensor errors. To allow for combining the magnetometer measurements with inertial measurements for orientation estimation, the algorithm also corrects for misalignment between the magnetometer and the inertial sensor axes. The calibration algorithm is formulated as the solution to a maximum likelihood problem and the computations are performed offline. The algorithm is shown to give good results using data from two different commercially available sensor units. Using the calibrated magnetometer measurements in combination with the inertial sensors to determine the sensor's orientation is shown to lead to significantly improved heading estimates.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates

Newton-MR: Inexact Newton Method With Minimum Residual Sub-problem Solver

We consider a variant of inexact Newton Method, called Newton-MR, in which the least-squares sub-problems are solved approximately using Minimum Residual method. By construction, Newton-MR can be readily applied for unconstrained optimization of a class of non-convex problems known as invex, which subsumes convexity as a sub-class. For invex optimization, instead of the classical Lipschitz continuity assumptions on gradient and Hessian, Newton-MR's global convergence can be guaranteed under a weaker notion of joint regularity of Hessian and gradient. We also obtain Newton-MR's problem-independent local convergence to the set of minima. We show that fast local/global convergence can be guaranteed under a novel inexactness condition, which, to our knowledge, is much weaker than the prior related works. Numerical results demonstrate the performance of Newton-MR as compared with several other Newton-type alternatives on a few machine learning problems.Comment: 35 page