Local Source Tsunami Inundation Modelling for Poverty Bay, Gisborne

After the Boxing Day 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, a review of tsunami hazard and risk for New Zealand identified Gisborne as the urban area with the greatest risk. Gisborne could experience gt;500 fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure during a severe tsunami. The severity of a tsunami is likely to be low for distance sources given the effectiveness of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System. However, there is a substantial risk from local sources, as no local warning system of any kind exists. Prompt evacuation is probably the most cost-effective tsunami mitigation strategy available for New Zealand coastal locations, including Gisborne. This requires both knowledge of the extent of tsunami inundation, and sufficient warning of the tsunami arrival. Hence, there are two main objectives for this investigation: 1. Determine the likely extent of tsunami inundation for Gisborne City and surrounding populated coastal locations in Poverty Bay, using a combination of hydrodynamic tsunami modelling and GIS. The modelling will simulate historical events, particularly the largest historical tsunami, the May 1947 local tsunami. Modelling will consider potential events based on the Maximum Credible Earthquake for local sources associated with the Hikurangi Deformation Front. 2. Create inundation maps of Poverty Bay that can be used for future town planning and emergency plans

Tsunamis from source to coast

Tsunami disasters pose a significant threat to coastal communities. In the last decades, tsunamis caused enormous destruction and exceeding 250000 fatalities. International efforts led to sig-nificant advances in tsunami science and research, but recent events demonstrated some limi-tations. Thus, it is essential to increase our knowledge of the source to coast tsunami phenom-enon. A better understanding of potential tectonic structures and other generation mechanisms is needed, especially in complex geologic domains or where sources are unknown. Furthermore, we need to improve Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) to provide timely alerts for communi-ties in the near field. Therefore, potential tsunamigenic sources in the diffuse plate boundary setting and the near field of the southwest Iberian margin (SWIM) are investigated. For the March 31, 1761, trans-atlantic tsunami, numerical modelling has been used to propose a structure that agrees with tsunami travel times, tsunami observations, macroseismic data, and kinematic plate modelling. Since there exists a description of a tsunami for the November 11, 1858, Sétubal earthquake, its source has been investigated using macroseismic analysis. The analysis suggests a local structure in a compressive regime with weak to moderate tsunamigenic potential. Future tsu-nami hazard assessments need to include the sources of the investigated events. To quickly estimate the tsunami impact, the Tsunami Runup Predictor (TRP), an empirical source-to-coast method to instantly provide first-order estimates of the tsunami runup based on waveform parameters has been developed. The TRP is helpful for emergency managers and evacuation planning for near-field events. Moreover, the author of this thesis contributed to the tsunami impact assessment of September 28, 2018, Palu tsunami, where tsunamis generated by multiple sources caused runup heights up to 9.2 m. However, for local sources, tsunami warning remains challenging; thus, communities need to be prepared how to respond appropriately to earthquakes and tsunamis with or without warning

REMOTE OPERATION OF THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER

The remote control of real time derivation of earthquake location and magnitude and the issuance of tsunami and earthquake bulletins was done using off-the-shelf remote control software and hardware. Such remote operation of the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center can decrease the time needed to respond to an earthquake by eliminating travel from the duty standers’ home to the tsunami warning center

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 353 (2014): 31-54, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2014.02.011.Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting a very low rate of hazard. However, the devastating 1929 Grand Banks tsunami along the Atlantic margin of Canada shows that these events continue to occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial and port facilities, and the presence of ten nuclear power plants along the coast, make this region highly vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis and therefore even low-probability events need to be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landslide tsunamis likely constitute the biggest tsunami hazard to the coast. Only a small number of landslides have so far been dated and they are generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution of landslides along the margin is expected to be uneven and to depend on the distribution of seismic activity along the margin and on the geographical distribution of Pleistocene sediment. We do not see evidence that gas hydrate dissociation contributes to the generation of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Analysis of landslide statistics along the fluvial and glacial portions of the margin indicate that most of the landslides are translational, were probably initiated by seismic acceleration, and failed as aggregate slope failures. How tsunamis are generated from aggregate landslides remains however, unclear. Estimates of the recurrence interval of earthquakes along the continental slope may provide maximum estimates for the recurrence interval of landslide along the margin. Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.The work was funded by the U.S.-NRC Job Code V6166: Tsunami Landslide Source Probability and Potential Impact on New and Existing Power Plants

Marine forearc structure of eastern Java and its role in the 1994 Java tsunami earthquake

We resolve a previously unrecognized shallow subducting seamount from a re-processed multichannel seismic depth image crossing the 1994 M7.8 Java tsunami earthquake slip area. Seamount subduction is related to the uplift of the overriding plate by lateral shortening and vertical thickening, causing pronounced back-thrusting at the landward slope of the forearc high and the formation of splay faults branching off the landward flank of the subducting seamount. The location of the seamount in relation to the 1994 earthquake hypocentre and its co-seismic slip model suggests that the seamount acted as a seismic barrier to the up-dip co-seismic rupture propagation of this moderate size earthquake. The wrapping of the co-seismic slip contours around the seamount indicates that it diverted rupture propagation, documenting the control of forearc structures on seismic rupture

Georisks in the Mediterranean and their mitigation

An international scientific conference organised by the Seismic Monitoring and Research Unit, Department of Geoscience, Faculty of Science, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering and Department of Construction and Property Management, Faculty of the Built Environment, University of Malta.Part of the SIMIT project: Integrated civil protection system for the Italo-Maltese cross-border area. Italia-Malta Programme – Cohesion Policy 2007-2013This conference is one of the activities organised within the SIMIT strategic project (Integrated Cross-Border Italo-Maltese System of Civil Protection), Italia-Malta Operational Programme 2007 – 2013. SIMIT aims to establish a system of collaboration in Civil Protection procedures and data management between Sicilian and Maltese partners, so as to guarantee the safety and protection of the citizens and infrastructure of the cross-border area. It is led by the Department of Civil Protection of the Sicilian region, and has as other partners the Department of Civil Protection of Malta and the Universities of Palermo, Catania and Malta. SIMIT was launched in March 2013, and will come to a close in October 2015. Ever since the initial formulation of the project, it has been recognised that a state of national preparedness and correct strategies in the face of natural hazards cannot be truly effective without a sound scientific knowledge of the hazards and related risks. The University of Malta, together with colleagues from other Universities in the project, has been contributing mostly to the gathering and application of scientific knowledge, both in earthquake hazard as well as in building vulnerability. The issue of seismic hazard in the cross-border region has been identified as deserving foremost importance. South-East Sicily in particular has suffered on more than one occasion the effects of large devastating earthquakes. Malta, although fortunately more removed from the sources of such large earthquakes, has not been completely spared of their damaging effects. The drastic increase in the building density over recent decades has raised the level of awareness and concern of citizens and authorities about our vulnerability. These considerations have spurred scientists from the cross-border region to work together towards a deeper understanding of the underlying causes and nature of seismic and associated hazards, such as landslide and tsunami. The SIMIT project has provided us with the means of improving earthquake surveillance and analysis in the Sicily Channel and further afield in the Mediterranean, as well as with facilities to study the behaviour of our rocks and buildings during earthquake shaking. The role of the civil engineering community in this endeavour cannot be overstated, and this is reflected in the incorporation, from the beginning, of the civil engineering component in the SIMIT project. Constructing safer buildings is now accepted to be the major option towards human loss mitigation during strong earthquakes, and this project has provided us with a welcome opportunity for interaction between the two disciplines. Finally the role of the Civil Protection authorities must occupy a central position, as we recognize the importance of their prevention, coordination and intervention efforts, aided by the input of the scientific community. This conference brings together a diversity of geoscientists and engineers whose collaboration is the only way forward to tackling issues and strategies for risk mitigation. Moreover we welcome the contribution of participants from farther afield than the Central Mediterranean, so that their varied experience may enhance our efforts. We are proud to host the conference in the historic city of Valletta, in the heart of the Mediterranean, which also serves as a constant reminder of the responsibility of all regions to protect and conserve our collective heritage.peer-reviewe

Tsunami Hazard in Eastern Indonesia: Source Identification and Reconstruction for Historical Case Studies

The archipelagic country of Indonesia is vulnerable to tsunami hazard due to its tectonic setting. An updated tsunami catalogue numbers at least 133 tsunamis documented from 1608 to 2018. Approximately 80% of tsunamis in Indonesia were generated by earthquakes. Eastern Indonesia experienced almost double the number of tsunamis than western of Indonesia, as separated by the Wallace Line. It is almost certain that the Sunda subduction zone and Krakatau (including Anak Krakatau) generated all tsunamis in the western part of Indonesia. However, it is more difficult to determine the primary source of tsunamis in the eastern region. Observations of these tsunamis are documented in several tsunami catalogues. Most of the events begin with a description of ground motion felt by local people at various locations, which as then followed by a tsunami. For several major events, there was detailed information on the physical tsunami behaviour observed at several places. For events in eastern Indonesia, there is no detailed information on the primary source of the ground motion and the tsunami. The aims of this study are 1) to develop techniques to optimise information from sparse and incomplete historical accounts using three case studies from eastern Indonesia: a) the Ambon Island 1674, b) the Banda Sea 1852, and c) the Flores Island 1992 tsunamis, and 2) to identify and reconstruct the primary source of the ground motion and tsunami for each event. The Ambon Island 1674 earthquake and tsunami has the oldest detailed historical account in Indonesia. It was also the largest tsunami run-up height ever documented in Indonesia, reaching about 100 m only on the northern shore of Ambon, whereas minor tsunamis were observed at other locations. The accounts gave detailed information on the earthquake intensities and tsunami observations from Ambon and its surrounding islands. Through a process of eliminating the well-known faults around the island and tsunami modelling, the most credible source to explain the tsunami observation was determined to be a landslide from the northern shore of Ambon. The earthquake source is still unclear. However, the ground motions were caused by a local and shallow depth earthquake. This study found that the Banda Sea 1852 earthquake and tsunami was the first event known in which a major tsunami was generated by a very low-angle normal fault, in this case known as the Banda Detachment. This conclusion is reached by combining a tsunami inverse travel time simulation, an earthquake intensity inversion, and tsunami modelling. An earthquake from the Banda Detachment can generate high intensity ground motion on the Banda Islands that gradually decreases towards Ternate in the north. Moreover, a landslide triggered by the Banda Detachment explains why people at Banda Neira and Ambon observed a tsunami that arrived with a positive phase polarity, unlike previous studies hypothesizing a source on the Tanimbar Trough. The source of the Flores Island 1992 earthquake and tsunami is constrained using a finite-fault source inversion technique. In this study, multiple data types are utilised together to provide an alternative solution to the rupture area, which has never been done in previous studies of this event. Through this technique and careful analysis of the fault plane model, the strike of the earthquake is confirmed to be 70deg. This fault geometry raises new questions about segmentation on the Flores back-arc thrust. Lastly, this study recommends a major modification for tsunami and earthquake hazard in eastern Indonesia. Firstly, all of events studied potentially involved landslides, so that landslides have to be considered in any tsunami hazard assessment. Secondly, the Banda Detachment is a major tsunami and earthquake source in the Banda Sea region. Lastly, the Flores back-arc thrust is a segmented zone. These factors will dramatically change the potential seismic and tsunami hazard distribution in this region

TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 3

This is Part 3 of Tsunami Information Sources published by Robert L. Wiegel, as Technical Report UCB/HEL 2006-3 of the Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering of the University of California at Berkeley. Part 3 is published in "SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS" -with the author's permission -so that it can receive wider distribution and use by the Tsunami Scientific Community