A framework for epidemic spreading in multiplex networks of metapopulations

We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of the spreading process with extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are in excellent agreement with the simulations. We also derive an exact expression of the epidemic threshold on this general framework revealing a non-trivial dependence on the mobility parameter. Finally, we use this new formalism to address the spread of diseases in real cities, specifically in the city of Medellin, Colombia, whose population is divided into six socio-economic classes, each one identified with a layer in this multiplex formalism.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure

Traffic Control for Network Protection Against Spreading Processes

Epidemic outbreaks in human populations are facilitated by the underlying transportation network. We consider strategies for containing a viral spreading process by optimally allocating a limited budget to three types of protection resources: (i) Traffic control resources, (ii), preventative resources and (iii) corrective resources. Traffic control resources are employed to impose restrictions on the traffic flowing across directed edges in the transportation network. Preventative resources are allocated to nodes to reduce the probability of infection at that node (e.g. vaccines), and corrective resources are allocated to nodes to increase the recovery rate at that node (e.g. antidotes). We assume these resources have monetary costs associated with them, from which we formalize an optimal budget allocation problem which maximizes containment of the infection. We present a polynomial time solution to the optimal budget allocation problem using Geometric Programming (GP) for an arbitrary weighted and directed contact network and a large class of resource cost functions. We illustrate our approach by designing optimal traffic control strategies to contain an epidemic outbreak that propagates through a real-world air transportation network.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1309.627

Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion

By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we investigate the coupled effects of random walk and intragroup interaction on contagion. Compared with the situation where only local movement or individual-based linkage exists, the coexistence of them leads to a wider spread of infectious disease. The roles of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control are checked, these two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease. Considering heterogeneous time scales between local movement and global interaction, a log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale $\tau$ is found. A theoretical analysis indicates that the evolutionary dynamics in the present model is related to the encounter probability and the encounter time. A functional relation between the epidemic threshold and the ratio of shortcuts, and a functional relation between the encounter time and the timescale $\tau$ are found

Spreading processes in Multilayer Networks

Several systems can be modeled as sets of interconnected networks or networks with multiple types of connections, here generally called multilayer networks. Spreading processes such as information propagation among users of an online social networks, or the diffusion of pathogens among individuals through their contact network, are fundamental phenomena occurring in these networks. However, while information diffusion in single networks has received considerable attention from various disciplines for over a decade, spreading processes in multilayer networks is still a young research area presenting many challenging research issues. In this paper we review the main models, results and applications of multilayer spreading processes and discuss some promising research directions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 4 table