MERLiN: Mixture Effect Recovery in Linear Networks

Causal inference concerns the identification of cause-effect relationships between variables, e.g. establishing whether a stimulus affects activity in a certain brain region. The observed variables themselves often do not constitute meaningful causal variables, however, and linear combinations need to be considered. In electroencephalographic studies, for example, one is not interested in establishing cause-effect relationships between electrode signals (the observed variables), but rather between cortical signals (the causal variables) which can be recovered as linear combinations of electrode signals. We introduce MERLiN (Mixture Effect Recovery in Linear Networks), a family of causal inference algorithms that implement a novel means of constructing causal variables from non-causal variables. We demonstrate through application to EEG data how the basic MERLiN algorithm can be extended for application to different (neuroimaging) data modalities. Given an observed linear mixture, the algorithms can recover a causal variable that is a linear effect of another given variable. That is, MERLiN allows us to recover a cortical signal that is affected by activity in a certain brain region, while not being a direct effect of the stimulus. The Python/Matlab implementation for all presented algorithms is available on https://github.com/sweichwald/MERLi

Decreased STARD10 expression is associated with defective insulin secretion in humans and mice

Genetic variants near ARAP1 (CENTD2) and STARD10 influence type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. The risk alleles impair glucose-induced insulin secretion and, paradoxically but characteristically, are associated with decreased proinsulin:insulin ratios, indicating improved proinsulin conversion. Neither the identity of the causal variants nor the gene(s) through which risk is conferred have been firmly established. Whereas ARAP1 encodes a GTPase activating protein, STARD10 is a member of the steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR)-related lipid transfer protein family. By integrating genetic fine-mapping and epigenomic annotation data and performing promoter-reporter and chromatin conformational capture (3C) studies in β cell lines, we localize the causal variant(s) at this locus to a 5 kb region that overlaps a stretch-enhancer active in islets. This region contains several highly correlated T2D-risk variants, including the rs140130268 indel. Expression QTL analysis of islet transcriptomes from three independent subject groups demonstrated that T2D-risk allele carriers displayed reduced levels of STARD10 mRNA, with no concomitant change in ARAP1 mRNA levels. Correspondingly, β-cell-selective deletion of StarD10 in mice led to impaired glucose-stimulated Ca2+ dynamics and insulin secretion and recapitulated the pattern of improved proinsulin processing observed at the human GWAS signal. Conversely, overexpression of StarD10 in the adult β cell improved glucose tolerance in high fat-fed animals. In contrast, manipulation of Arap1 in β cells had no impact on insulin secretion or proinsulin conversion in mice. This convergence of human and murine data provides compelling evidence that the T2D risk associated with variation at this locus is mediated through reduction in STARD10 expression in the β cell

A 3D maximum likelihood analysis for studying highly extended sources in VERITAS data

Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes have provided insights into many astrophysical phenomena including particle acceleration in SNR, studies of the extragalactic background light, and high energy emission from pulsars. However, current techniques for analyzing IACT data are poorly suited to studying emission greater than a few tenths of a degree. This thesis outlines a new analysis technique, known as the 3D MLM, designed to enhance the sensitivity of the VERITAS IACT array to sources from 0.5◦ to greater than 2◦ in radius. This analysis employs a maximum likelihood technique which models the expected distribution of events in the VERITAS data in two dimensions analogous to sky coordinates. Additionally a third dimension based on mean scaled width, a known gamma/hadron discrimination parameter, im- proves the sensitivity of the 3D MLM to such highly extended sources. Simulated VERITAS observations of 2FHL J0431.2+5553e, a 1.27◦ radius Fermi-LAT source, demonstrate the potential superior performance of this new technique over the standard ring background model analysis