Forest Inventories: Discrepancies and Uncertainties

Credits for sequestered carbon augment forests’ already considerable value as natural habitat and as producers of timber and biomass, making their accurate inventory more critical than ever before. This article examines discrepancies in inventories of forest attributes and their sources in four variables: area, timber volume per area, biomass per timber volume, and carbon concentration. Documented discrepancies range up to a multibillion-ton difference in the global stock of carbon in trees. Because the variables are multiplied together to estimate an attribute like carbon stock, more precise measurement of the most certain variable improves accuracy little, and a 10 percent error in biomass per timber levers a discrepancy as much as a mistake in millions of hectares. More precise measurements of, say, accessible stands cannot remedy inaccuracies from biased sampling of regional forests. The discrepancies and uncertainties documented here underscore the obligation to improve monitoring of global forests.forest monitoring, Forest Identity, forest carbon, remote sensing

Lacustrine ice-margin dynamics in west Greenland

There has been a progressive increase in the number and area of ice-marginal lakes along the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) since the late 1980s. Ice-marginal lake formation and growth have been widely associated with accelerated rates of mass loss and terminus recession at alpine glaciers, yet their impacts on the GrIS have remained unquantified. This thesis therefore investigated the influence of ice-marginal lakes on ice-margin dynamics in west Greenland at multiple spatial and temporal scales, using both established remote sensing techniques and the novel integration of time-lapse photography with Structure-from-Motion and Multi-View Stereo. A regional-decadal scale analysis of ice-margin change along a ~5000 km length of the GrIS revealed that lake-terminating ice-margins receded faster than their terrestrial counterparts between 1987 and 2015. In addition, the rate of recession at lake-terminating ice-margins accelerated over the study period and increasingly outpaced recession at terrestrial ice-margins. Altitude, latitude, lake area and the length of the lake – ice-margin interface were also identified as significant controls on rates of lake-terminating ice-margin recession. Local-seasonal scale ice-margin dynamics were investigated using the first continuous year-round volumetric record of calving at a lacustrine ice-margin. These data highlighted two distinct calving regimes; with melt-undercutting driving high calving rates under ice-free lake conditions, and force imbalances at the ice-cliff driving low calving rates when the lake was frozen. These results are important because they demonstrate that ice-marginal lakes are key regulators of ice-margin dynamics at the GrIS. The quantitative data derived through this study provide an empirical foundation upon which modelling efforts can incorporate the influence of ice-marginal processes. This is particularly pertinent given that rates of mass loss and recession at lake-terminating margins of the GrIS are likely to accelerate in coming decades in response to continued ice-marginal lake expansion and a lengthening melt season

A Primer on Bayesian Neural Networks: Review and Debates

Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. To address these challenges, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have emerged as a compelling extension of conventional neural networks, integrating uncertainty estimation into their predictive capabilities. This comprehensive primer presents a systematic introduction to the fundamental concepts of neural networks and Bayesian inference, elucidating their synergistic integration for the development of BNNs. The target audience comprises statisticians with a potential background in Bayesian methods but lacking deep learning expertise, as well as machine learners proficient in deep neural networks but with limited exposure to Bayesian statistics. We provide an overview of commonly employed priors, examining their impact on model behavior and performance. Additionally, we delve into the practical considerations associated with training and inference in BNNs. Furthermore, we explore advanced topics within the realm of BNN research, acknowledging the existence of ongoing debates and controversies. By offering insights into cutting-edge developments, this primer not only equips researchers and practitioners with a solid foundation in BNNs, but also illuminates the potential applications of this dynamic field. As a valuable resource, it fosters an understanding of BNNs and their promising prospects, facilitating further advancements in the pursuit of knowledge and innovation.Comment: 65 page

A Bayesian Approach to Computer Model Calibration and Model-Assisted Design

Computer models of phenomena that are difficult or impossible to study directly are critical for enabling research and assisting design in many areas. In order to be effective, computer models must be calibrated so that they accurately represent the modeled phenomena. There exists a rich variety of methods for computer model calibration that have been developed in recent decades. Among the desiderata of such methods is a means of quantifying remaining uncertainty after calibration regarding both the values of the calibrated model inputs and the model outputs. Bayesian approaches to calibration have met this need in recent decades. However, limitations remain. Whereas in model calibration one finds point estimates or distributions of calibration inputs in order to induce the model to reflect reality accurately, interest in a computer model often centers primarily on its use for model-assisted design, in which the goal is to find values for design inputs to induce the modeled system to approximate some target outcome. Existing Bayesian approaches are limited to the first of these two tasks. The present work develops an approach adapting Bayesian methods for model calibration for application in model-assisted design. The approach retains the benefits of Bayesian calibration in accounting for and quantifying all sources of uncertainty. It is capable of generating a comprehensive assessment of the Pareto optimal inputs for a multi-objective optimization problem. The present work shows that this approach can apply as a method for model-assisted design using a previously calibrated system, and can also serve as a method for model-assisted design using a model that still requires calibration, accomplishing both ends simultaneously

A review of marine geomorphometry, the quantitative study of the seafloor

Geomorphometry, the science of quantitative terrain characterization, has traditionally focused on the investigation of terrestrial landscapes. However, the dramatic increase in the availability of digital bathymetric data and the increasing ease by which geomorphometry can be investigated using geographic information systems (GISs) and spatial analysis software has prompted interest in employing geomorphometric techniques to investigate the marine environment. Over the last decade or so, a multitude of geomorphometric techniques (e.g. terrain attributes, feature extraction, automated classification) have been applied to characterize seabed terrain from the coastal zone to the deep sea. Geomorphometric techniques are, however, not as varied, nor as extensively applied, in marine as they are in terrestrial environments. This is at least partly due to difficulties associated with capturing, classifying, and validating terrain characteristics underwater. There is, nevertheless, much common ground between terrestrial and marine geomorphometry applications and it is important that, in developing marine geomorphometry, we learn from experiences in terrestrial studies. However, not all terrestrial solutions can be adopted by marine geomorphometric studies since the dynamic, four-dimensional (4-D) nature of the marine environment causes its own issues throughout the geomorphometry workflow. For instance, issues with underwater positioning, variations in sound velocity in the water column affecting acousticbased mapping, and our inability to directly observe and measure depth and morphological features on the seafloor are all issues specific to the application of geomorphometry in the marine environment. Such issues fuel the need for a dedicated scientific effort in marine geomorphometry. This review aims to highlight the relatively recent growth of marine geomorphometry as a distinct discipline, and offers the first comprehensive overview of marine geomorphometry to date. We address all the five main steps of geomorphometry, from data collection to the application of terrain attributes and features. We focus on how these steps are relevant to marine geomorphometry and also highlight differences and similarities from terrestrial geomorphometry. We conclude with recommendations and reflections on the future of marine geomorphometry. To ensure that geomorphometry is used and developed to its full potential, there is a need to increase awareness of (1) marine geomorphometry amongst scientists already engaged in terrestrial geomorphometry, and of (2) geomorphometry as a science amongst marine scientists with a wide range of backgrounds and experiences.peer-reviewe

Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Engineering Design and Health Prognostics: A Tutorial

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Toward this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines