Natural resources, economic growth and institutions – a panel approach

This study re-evaluates the impact of natural resources on growth using panel data and a factor-efficiency accounting framework. The resource-curse thesis is dismissed as capital efficiency is improved by geographically-concentrated natural resources, which hinder institutional quality in recent cross-section studies. This consensus does not hold in our case even when we use unadjusted resource proxies and the standard institutional approach, as both concentrated and diffuse resources show negative effects in low institutional-quality countries. Adequate fiscal policy seems to prevent the curse in that case, but reduces the positive effect of concentrated resources found with our adjusted proxy.Natural resources, Economic growth, Institutions, Country Studies, Panel data

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox and also investigate empirically whether export diversification of commodity dependent countries contribute to faster growth. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as an augmented version of the pooled mean group (PMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of CTOT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms

Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth

This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach as well as the dynamic common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG) methodology for estimation to account for cross‐country heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and feedback effects. Using both annual data for 1970–2007 and 5‐year non‐overlapping observations, we find that while CToT growth enhances real output per capita, CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical and human capital. Productivity, however, is not affected by either the growth or the volatility of CToT. Our results also indicate that the negative growth effects of CToT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the ‘resource curse’ paradox.Financial support from the ERF through the ‘Second Environmental Economics Research Competition for MENA’ is gratefully acknowledged

Neoclassical growth and the natural resource curse puzzle

We advance a novel mechanism that helps to explain the puzzling evidence on the natural resource curse. The new channel arises in a standard dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model composed of small-open economies that take international output prices as given. Within this framework, a more capital-intensive primary sector implies that natural-resource abundant economies grow more slowly along the adjustment path. This effect might be only temporary because the natural input also affects long-run income, and not necessarily in the same direction as transitional growth. We produce quantitative results that show that the new mechanism can account for a significant fraction of the observed output growth gap between resource rich and resource poor U.S. states

Reduction of an Economy’s Raw Material Dependence and the Human Capital of a Country

This paper evaluates the raw material dependence of two export-oriented oil and gas extracting countries. We find evidence of presence of the Dutch disease in both countries and of the resource curse in Russia. Reduction of volumes of crude oil and natural gas production and exports, compensated by the growth of value added in other kinds of economic activity, suggests that Norway is gradually overcoming the Dutch disease by means of expanded reproduction of human capital. On the other hand, extraction of hydrocarbons may remain a driver of the Russian economic growth

Distributional impact of commodity price shocks: Australia over a century

This paper explores the distributional impact of commodity price shocks over the both the short and very long run. Using a GARCH model, we find that Australia experienced more volatility than many commodity exporting poor countries between 1865 and 2007. A single equation error correction model suggests that commodity price shocks increase the income share of the top 1, 0.05, and 0.01 percent in the short run. The very top end of the income distribution benefits from commodity booms disproportionately more than the rest of society. The short run effect is mainly driven by wool and mining and not agricultural commodities. A sustained increase in the price of renewables (wool) reduces inequality whereas the same for non-renewable resources (minerals) increases inequality. We expect that the initial distribution of land and mineral resources explains the asymmetric result

Nigeria: A Prime Example of the Resource Curse? Revisiting the Oil-Violence Link in the Niger Delta

This paper studies the oil-violence link in the Niger Delta, systematically taking into consideration domestic and international contextual factors. The case study, which focuses on explaining the increase in violence since the second half of the 1990s, confirms the differentiated interplay of resource-specific and non-resource-specific causal factors. With regard to the key contextual conditions responsible for violence, the results underline the basic relevance of cultural cleavages and political-institutional and socioeconomic weakness that existed even before the beginning of the “oil era.” Oil has indirectly boosted the risk of violent conflicts through a further distortion of the national economy. Moreover, the transition to democratic rule in 1999 decisively increased the opportunities for violent struggle, in a twofold manner: firstly, through the easing of political repression and, secondly, through the spread of armed youth groups, which have been fostered by corrupt politicians. These incidents imply that violence in the Niger Delta is increasingly driven by the autonomous dynamics of an economy of violence: the involvement of security forces, politicians and (international) businessmen in illegal oil theft helps to explain the perpetuation of the violent conflicts at a low level of intensity.Nigeria, natural resources, oil, political economy, violence, context sensitivity

(WP 2010-01) The Role of Primary Commodities in Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa versus Rest of the World

We study the nexus between natural resources and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and find that SSA is indeed special: resources dependence retards growth in SSA, but not elsewhere. The natural resources curse is thus specific to SSA. We then show that this specificity does not depend on the type of primary commodities on which SSA specializes. Instead, the SSA specificity appears to arise from the interaction between institutions and natural resources

Re-evaluating the impact of natural resources on economic growth

In this study we re-evaluate the impact of natural resources on economic growth. The reassessment is based on a growth model where, using panel-data analysis, natural-resource variables (geographically diffused and concentrated) affect the efficiency gains of labour and capital in production. We find an overall positive effect on growth arising from the increase in capital efficiency associated with concentrated resources, exactly the kind of resources that explain the resource curse in recent cross-section studies. We detect a negative effect of concentrated resources on labour efficiency only when either the resource proxies are unadjusted for re-export distortion (even with a fixed institutional quality, contrary to cross-section studies), or both the fixed country and time effects are not considered after the referred adjustment. Our results also dismiss a negative effect of the adjusted diffuse resources measure on capital efficiency if we assume a constant institutional quality, and fixed country and time effects.Natural resources; Economic growth; Economywide Country Studies; Panel data