Multiparty Dynamics and Failure Modes for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

An important challenge for safety in machine learning and artificial intelligence systems is a~set of related failures involving specification gaming, reward hacking, fragility to distributional shifts, and Goodhart's or Campbell's law. This paper presents additional failure modes for interactions within multi-agent systems that are closely related. These multi-agent failure modes are more complex, more problematic, and less well understood than the single-agent case, and are also already occurring, largely unnoticed. After motivating the discussion with examples from poker-playing artificial intelligence (AI), the paper explains why these failure modes are in some senses unavoidable. Following this, the paper categorizes failure modes, provides definitions, and cites examples for each of the modes: accidental steering, coordination failures, adversarial misalignment, input spoofing and filtering, and goal co-option or direct hacking. The paper then discusses how extant literature on multi-agent AI fails to address these failure modes, and identifies work which may be useful for the mitigation of these failure modes.Comment: 12 Pages, This version re-submitted to Big Data and Cognitive Computing, Special Issue "Artificial Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy

Economic interests and the origins of electoral systems

Die gängige Begründung – basierend auf der bahnbrechenden Arbeit Rokkans – dafür, dass ein spezifisches Wahlsystem bevorzugt wird, ist, dass die Verhältniswahl („proportional respresentation“ oder „PR“) von einer zersplitterten Rechte eingeführt wurde, um ihre Klasseninteressen gegenüber denen einer wachsenden Linken zu verteidigen. Neue Erkenntnisse zeigen jedoch, dass PR tatsächlich die Linke und das Konzept der Umverteilung stärkt. Wir behaupten daher, dass die allgemein akzeptierte Sichtweise historisch, analytisch und empirisch falsch ist. Unsere Erklärung für die Einführung der PR ist eine grundlegend andere: Durch die Integration zweier gegensätzlicher Interpretationen von PR – das Konzept der minimal erfolgreichen Koalitionen [minimum winning coalition] gegenüber dem Konzept des Konsens – gehen wir davon aus, dass die Rechte PR übernommen hat, als ihre Unterstützung für konsensuelle rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen (besonders im Arbeitsmarkt und in der Ausbildung neuer Arbeitskräfte, wo spezifische Investitionen wichtig waren) wichtiger wurde als ihre Abneigung gegen die Umverteilungsauswirkungen; dies passierte in den Ländern, die vorher eine eng organisierte kommunale Wirtschaft hatten. In Ländern mit relativ schlechten Arbeitgeber- Arbeitnehmer-Beziehungen und einer schwach ausgeprägten Koordination zwischen Wirtschaft und Gewerkschaften hatte die Beibehaltung von Mehrheitssystemen die Funktion, die Linke in Schach zu halten. Diese Tatsache erklärt die enge Beziehung zwischen den bestehenden Varianten von Kapitalismus und Wahlsystemen und warum diese weiterhin fortbestehen. -- The standard explanation for the choice of electoral institutions, building on Rokkan’s seminal work, is that proportional representation (PR) was adopted by a divided right to defend its class interests against a rising left. But new evidence shows that PR strengthens the left and redistribution, and we argue the standard view is wrong historically, analytically, and empirically. We offer a radically different explanation. Integrating two opposed interpretations of PR – minimum winning coalitions versus consensus – we propose that the right adopted PR when their support for consensual regulatory frameworks, especially of labor markets and skill formation where co-specific investments were important, outweighed their opposition to the redistributive consequences; this occurred in countries with previously densely organized local economies. In countries with adversarial industrial relations, and weak coordination of business and unions, keeping majoritarian institutions helped contain the left. This explains the close association between current varieties of capitalism and electoral institutions, and why they persist over time.Economic Models of Political Processes,Government,War,Law,and Regulation (Comparative),Political Economy of Capitalism

Mechanisms for Automated Negotiation in State Oriented Domains

This paper lays part of the groundwork for a domain theory of negotiation, that is, a way of classifying interactions so that it is clear, given a domain, which negotiation mechanisms and strategies are appropriate. We define State Oriented Domains, a general category of interaction. Necessary and sufficient conditions for cooperation are outlined. We use the notion of worth in an altered definition of utility, thus enabling agreements in a wider class of joint-goal reachable situations. An approach is offered for conflict resolution, and it is shown that even in a conflict situation, partial cooperative steps can be taken by interacting agents (that is, agents in fundamental conflict might still agree to cooperate up to a certain point). A Unified Negotiation Protocol (UNP) is developed that can be used in all types of encounters. It is shown that in certain borderline cooperative situations, a partial cooperative agreement (i.e., one that does not achieve all agents' goals) might be preferred by all agents, even though there exists a rational agreement that would achieve all their goals. Finally, we analyze cases where agents have incomplete information on the goals and worth of other agents. First we consider the case where agents' goals are private information, and we analyze what goal declaration strategies the agents might adopt to increase their utility. Then, we consider the situation where the agents' goals (and therefore stand-alone costs) are common knowledge, but the worth they attach to their goals is private information. We introduce two mechanisms, one 'strict', the other 'tolerant', and analyze their affects on the stability and efficiency of negotiation outcomes.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Applications of Blockchain for the Governance of Integrated Project Delivery: A Crypto Commons Approach

This paper outlines why and how blockchain can digitally support and evolve the governance of collaborative project deliveries, such as integrated project deliveries (IPDs), to provide the foundation for novel and disruptive forms of organizational collaboration in the construction industry. Previous work has conceptualized IPDs as a common pool resource (CPR) scenario, where shared resources are collectively governed. Through the use of blockchain and smart contracts for trustworthy peer-to-peer transactions and execution logic, Ostrom's design principles can be digitally encoded to scale CPR scenarios. Building on the identified connections, the paper 1) synthesizes fourteen blockchain-based mechanisms to govern CPRs, 2) identifies twenty-two applications of these mechanisms to govern IPDs, and 3) introduces a conceptualization of the above relationships towards a holistic understanding of collaborative project deliveries on the crypto commons for novel collective organization of construction project delivery between both humans and machines

Tasks for Agent-Based Negotiation Teams:Analysis, Review, and Challenges

An agent-based negotiation team is a group of interdependent agents that join together as a single negotiation party due to their shared interests in the negotiation at hand. The reasons to employ an agent-based negotiation team may vary: (i) more computation and parallelization capabilities, (ii) unite agents with different expertise and skills whose joint work makes it possible to tackle complex negotiation domains, (iii) the necessity to represent different stakeholders or different preferences in the same party (e.g., organizations, countries, and married couple). The topic of agent-based negotiation teams has been recently introduced in multi-agent research. Therefore, it is necessary to identify good practices, challenges, and related research that may help in advancing the state-of-the-art in agent-based negotiation teams. For that reason, in this article we review the tasks to be carried out by agent-based negotiation teams. Each task is analyzed and related with current advances in different research areas. The analysis aims to identify special challenges that may arise due to the particularities of agent-based negotiation teams.Comment: Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 201

Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries

This paper examines the effect of government ideology on monetary policy in a quarterly data set of 15 OECD countries in the period 1980.1–2005.4. Our Taylor-rule specification focuses on the interactions of a new time-variant indicator for central bank independence and government ideology. The results suggest that leftist governments did not decrease short term nominal interest rates at all. In contrast, short term nominal interest rates were higher under leftist governments. A potential reason for this finding might be that leftist governments have sought to make a market-oriented policy shift by delegating monetary policy to conservative central bankers.Monetary policy, Taylor rule, government ideology, partisan politics, central bank independence, panel data